Author Topic: Papelbon?  (Read 3844 times)

Dave23

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Papelbon?
« on: August 16, 2016, 04:10:00 pm »
Pros vs. Cons?

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papa smurf

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2016, 05:24:37 pm »
con he played for mississippi state
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davep

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2016, 05:38:17 pm »
Pro - he might not suck as much as Smith.

Bennett

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2016, 05:44:49 pm »
Con - The Cubs already have to make a roster move after the second game of the DH.  Cahill looks safe after his outing in the first game so would they get rid of both Smith and Montgomery?  I doubt it.

AZSteve

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2016, 08:52:14 pm »
Pro: Papelbon is a good buddy of Lester who says Papelbon is a good teammate and the club house has a fair share of leaders who could keep the atmosphere inclusive, focused on the game of the day,so bring him on.

davep

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2016, 10:41:51 pm »
Bennett makes a good point.  Who do they demote if they sign him?  I wouldn't want to see Grimm go down again.

CUBluejays

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2016, 11:34:14 pm »
Edwards is the only other guy with options.

Chapman is the closer. Rondon gets the 8th. If Strop comes back ok he's the seventh inning. That leaves Grimm/Edwards/Cahill/Montgomery/Wood in the pen as well. Even if Strop isn't the same I'd rather see Grimm/Edwards in the 7th. I'd have more interest in seeing Rosario/Riverio/Johnson/Zastrynzy in September.

DelMarFan

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2016, 01:52:40 pm »
Not interested unless there are health concerns about Rondon.  It looks more like Rondon was rusty the other day, so I'd rather stick with Grimm and Cahill.

Reb

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2016, 02:09:01 pm »
Think that Papelbon can pitch effectively in right situation.

Once demoted from closer, Nats had to dump him. Not going to work in that clubhouse and was bad in last 5 appearances.

Before that, had 2.68 ERA and FIP way better than ERA now. Decent walks and low homers. Can still pitch.

Of course, has to be right situation with other veteran guys around. With Strop out for a month and Smith ineffective and rosters expanding soon, could see the interest.

CUBluejays

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2016, 02:44:02 pm »
If you are talking about him vs Smith I could see it, but that isn't the choice.  It is going to be Papeblon vs Grimm or Edwards.

As far as this year he has a 91.7 average fastball.  Career low outside zone swing %, career low swinging strike %, career high hard contact%, career low soft contact percentage.  His xFIP in the first half was 4.19.  He's a flyball pitcher that is getting hit hard.  If the wind is blowing out that is a bad combo at Wrigley. 

Reb

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2016, 03:18:40 pm »
As I noted, rosters expand in two weeks so it's not really Papelbon displacing anybody for any significant time. Indeed, Cubs now at 7-man bullpen when club has been at 8-man bullpen for bulk of the season. There is room.

So, issue is: can he help? That's the issue.

Comparing Papelbon to career Papelbon is irrelevant. Issue isn't about bringing in long-time successful closer but maybe bringing in a guy who can be useful on a 7-man or 8-man bullpen---and paying major league minimum without any multi-year commitment.

As to pitching in Wrigley, it is 93 on a scale of 100 as average pitchers park. It's been a decided pitchers park this season. Also, irrelevant to the issue.

No, Maddon is not going to be too interested in Jose Rosario over Papelbon in September, as you suggest. Probably Papelbon gets better deal elsewhere but if he's here, I'm on board.

Reb

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2016, 03:35:07 pm »
Papelbon probably goes where he can balance two things: (1) get the most work--to showcase for 2017 and (2) chance to get to post-season now.

My guess for best fit is Cards, especially with Maness going down recently. Has history with Red Sox and Cubs guys--so could end up at either but Cards have the need and have good shot at wild card.

CUBluejays

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2016, 03:57:34 pm »
So, issue is: can he help? That's the issue.

Comparing Papelbon to career Papelbon is irrelevant. Issue isn't about bringing in long-time successful closer but maybe bringing in a guy who can be useful on a 7-man or 8-man bullpen---and paying major league minimum without any multi-year commitment.

As to pitching in Wrigley, it is 93 on a scale of 100 as average pitchers park. It's been a decided pitchers park this season. Also, irrelevant to the issue.

No, Maddon is not going to be too interested in Jose Rosario over Papelbon in September, as you suggest. Probably Papelbon gets better deal elsewhere but if he's here, I'm on board.

The issue is setting roles for the playoff roster, not the Cubs winning the division. 

Papelbon's swinging strike rate is only better than Warren, Patton, Wood, Richard Smith in the Cubs bullpen.  His soft contact% would only be better than Joel Perralta.  His hard contact% is better than Grimm, Rondon, Montgomery but they all get more soft contact and strike outs.  Is that better?

Wrigley wind blows in the early part of the season and usually blows out in the late part of the season/playoffs.  I think that might be important.

He's going to go where he can get the best show case, being the Cubs 5/6 inning guy isn't it.

Reb

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2016, 04:49:16 pm »
Actually, if it's primarily about "setting roles for the playoff roster"--which is 7 weeks away and way premature to "set" anything yet--then signing Papelbon could be MORE significant. That's because IF he's in the form he was in before last 5 appearances, he's likely on playoff roster. But, we would have to see him work, obviously.

He was getting guys out then. Does that count? That's what Maddon cares about.

Wrigley is probably going to be cold as we get to playoffs time--more similar to early April season than the summer months when it can become (but hasn't been in 2016) a hitters park. Geez, World Series is scheduled for November. Don't expect warm and balmy.

CUBluejays

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Re: Papelbon?
« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2016, 05:01:39 pm »
He was getting guys out then. Does that count? That's what Maddon cares about.

Joe Nathan except for 1 outing was getting guys out, he's now in the Giants organization.  It is just the results that matter, it is if the results can continue to happen.  For Pap and Nathan I would say no, it isn't likely to continue. 

Going back to 1991 there has been 1909 PA in Wrigley in October.  Only 12.4% does the wind blow in from LF in those PA.  Only July has a lower %.