If Lester could somehow beat Harvey in Game 1, you'd sure start to like your chances with a Arrietta-Matz matchup in Game 2 (unless Arrietta really is gassed - and his velocity has been down in his last two starts, including the Pirates game). If you could go back to Chicago up 2-0 it would be hard not to be optimistic.
In the end, it's just an absolute must to split those first two games in NY. I figure if that happens it's a tossup, and if either team is up 2-0 they're an 80-20 favorite.