« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5   Go Down

Author Topic: Pujols to the Cubs?  (Read 4458 times)

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #45 on: May 13, 2011, 02:50:23 pm »
Quote from: Robb on May 13, 2011, 01:46:28 pm
You can't say the Cubs wouldn't contend with Pujols in the line-up.  You don't know that.  A true middle of the order hitter makes everyone around him better.  The 1 and 2 hitters see more fastballs, the hitters behind him are hitting with a man on base more than 40% of the time.  He also plays excellent defense.  Winning baseball is about talent but it is also about confidence.  Pujols would bring that.  I'm not saying signing him guarantees a WS ring but for those who automatically assume his presence wouldn't be a game changer, there's no way to know that.  All that being said, I wouldn't give him any more than 6 years.  Those who mention players doing well into their late 30's aren't figuring in PED's.  Since baseball finally starting testing for real you see players fading in their mid-30's pretty much on cue.

Yea, signing ARod did wonders for Texas, didn't it?

While you are right that you can not be certain the Cubs would not contend with Pujols, if you are going to sink $30M a year of a team's budget into a player, you need more than the possibility they would not contend if they sign him.  You need a near certainty that the addition of that kind of talent would be enough to make the team a truly dominant one, and one reason you need that is because it results in pretty serious limitations in what else a team can do after that much of its budget is committed.
Logged

Robb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4928
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #46 on: May 13, 2011, 04:19:01 pm »
We're talking about a once in a generation player here.  The other issue is the fact you are removing him from the Cardinal's roster as well.  Take Pujols out of the middle of their line-up the past 8 years and how good would they be?  The cubs have a better starting staff than the Rangers could have dreamed of when Arod was signed and a better bullpen too.  This team isn't that far removed from contending with just a couple of good moves.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2011, 04:20:50 pm by Robb »
Logged

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2011, 05:02:20 pm »
Robb, as good as Pujols, as a firstbaseman, who will be 32 before the start of next season, is nowhere nearly as valuable as ARod was as a 24 year old SS.

If Pujols is just the age he is reported to be, he will be 32 in January.  Long term deals with 32 year old players out to break the bank just don't seem to make sense to me.

One interesting thing about Pujol's performance this year is that while his performance is well off his career norm (of a career 171 OPS+), he may be performing poorer while getting better pitches to hit.

For the last three years, Pujols has had 34, 44, and 38 IBBs, and has had at least 22 every season since 2005, but this year he has one.  Only one.   His overall walk rate is also down sharply.  For his career, he has walked 13.4% of his trips to the plate,  last year it was 14.7%, and in 2009 it was 16.4%.  This year it has been 10.2%.

It would appear that teams are no longer pitching around him anything close to the way they have in the past, and there is no reason to think that he has expanded his strike zone.  But his performance is more than 250 OPS points below his career average.

And even if he recovers this season, the tenth year of his ten year contract, the team that signs him will be paying a 42 year old player.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2011, 05:07:51 pm by Jes Beard »
Logged

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27369
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #48 on: May 13, 2011, 05:32:48 pm »
Somebody mentioned the other day how signing one guy, like Neifi, to get an inside track on another often backfires.

Information seems to confirm that the Cards got burned that way with Holliday to an extent.   They wanted Holliday, that's not the issue, but they thought giving him big money to keep him would prove to Pujols that they were serious and from somewhere in space they had the honest belief that he would give a huge, huge discount to stay in St. Louis.  From what some folks have shared, I think that they were shocked that he so firmly and decidedly turned down their spring offer.  I don't think they got the info from Albert or his agent, but they really thought the numbers they had concocted would do the trick.  Now they are in a bind.  Do they save any for Wainwright?  How high do they go...they are very conscious of the fact that they still have to find more pieces, especially since Freese's injury proneness, Molina's age, Theriot's defense, and Franklyn's complete collapse have them scratching their heads.

I still think that Albert resigns with them but at a rate that really cripples them...no matter, Robb, how much he improves others around him.  And I don't really disagree with you there, except that I still don't think on an everyday basis he'd inspire Koyie, Fonzie, and the Byrd.
Logged

Robb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4928
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #49 on: May 13, 2011, 06:26:40 pm »
Having Albert hit behind Barney and Castro will effect them.  Having him talk hitting with them will help them.  From all reports he is a terrific teammate.  Much like Maddux was to pitchers.  Byrd is only signed for one more year.  He might even be gone this year.  I'm not worried about the impact of Pujols on guys like Byrd.  I would like to see what Brett Jackson, Castro, Barney and Soto do in a line-up anchored by one of the greatest hitters of all-time.  It is laughable to compare him to Soriano.  He has always had excellent discipline, he plays 1B so even if he gets a little slower he isn't going to hurt the defense either.  Like I said, I wouldn't sign the guy for 8 years at 30 per but I would jump at 6 years at even 30 per.  As far as the load on payroll.  The Cubs aren't the Cardinals. The increased gate from a Pujols signing, the increased TV ratings, the increased jerseys and other marketing opportunities form his signing would make his true cost much less than 30 mil to the team.  Would you sign Pujols for 6 years if the impact to the team was 20 mil?  I would in a heartbeat. 
Logged

Robb

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4928
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #50 on: May 13, 2011, 06:29:37 pm »
Come on Jesbeard, you are taking 6 weeks out of a season to indicate some sort of sudden decline in Pujols abilities?  Talk about small sample sizes.  Let's ignore the rest of his career, let's even ignore the last three years and focus in on 6 weeks because it helps your argument.  I have never suggested a ten year contract or even eight.  If he holds to that then I have no interest.  If you can pay a little more per year and get him for less years though you would be stupid not to do it. 
Logged

Chris27

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 18173
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #51 on: May 13, 2011, 07:23:24 pm »
As a bonus, stealing Pujols out from under the Cardinals would make any mention of the Brock trade moot forever.
Logged

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27369
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #52 on: May 13, 2011, 08:27:15 pm »
I don't think I ever compared him to Soriano, but then maybe you weren't directing that at me.

You make some valid points about the kids and learning from Albert, though not all the kids at St. Louis have seemingly picked up a whole lot.  I'm still more concerned with investing so much in one player.
Logged

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #53 on: May 13, 2011, 08:35:20 pm »
I just dont think it's wise to make such a commitment to one player.

For 30 million a year or whatever in this market we could probably get a 1st baseman,2nd baseman,starting pitcher and a reliever or two.

We'd be a lot closer to being good if we did that than we would if we committed all that to one player and a player that might be 34-35 at that.

Im definitely not gonna **** at all if we sign Pujols right out from under St. Louis but I'd be willing to bet every dime I have that whoever does sign him ends up regretting it in the end.
Logged

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #54 on: May 13, 2011, 08:45:53 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 08:27:15 pm
I don't think I ever compared him to Soriano....

I don't think anyone compared him to Soriano.
Logged

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #55 on: May 13, 2011, 08:48:10 pm »
Quote from: JIGGY on May 13, 2011, 08:35:20 pm
For 30 million a year or whatever in this market we could probably get a 1st baseman,2nd baseman,starting pitcher and a reliever or two.  We'd be a lot closer to being good if we did that than we would if we committed all that to one player and a player that might be 34-35 at that.

We would be a lot better, for a lot longer, if we didn't look at filling four positions with expensive FA players and instead rebuilt with prospects.
Logged

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27369
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #56 on: May 13, 2011, 08:48:28 pm »
LOL  Jiggy, you hit one idea that I've had all along.  I think it would be a BAD baseball move to sign him to that kind of money, but it would be worth TWICE that just to watch some of these dumba$$ Cardinal fans around here choke on their spit.
Logged

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #57 on: May 13, 2011, 08:51:45 pm »
Quote from: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 08:48:28 pm
LOL  Jiggy, you hit one idea that I've had all along.  I think it would be a BAD baseball move to sign him to that kind of money, but it would be worth TWICE that just to watch some of these dumba$$ Cardinal fans around here choke on their spit.

And it would be the height of foolishness to cripple your own organization just to irritate fans of another team, particularly when who before the contract would be over, they would be laughing at you again.
Logged

Jes Beard

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17183
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #58 on: May 13, 2011, 08:57:55 pm »
Quote from: Robb on May 13, 2011, 06:29:37 pm
Come on Jesbeard, you are taking 6 weeks out of a season to indicate some sort of sudden decline in Pujols abilities?  Talk about small sample sizes.  Let's ignore the rest of his career, let's even ignore the last three years and focus in on 6 weeks because it helps your argument.

No.  It is not cherry picking to find stats to support a position.  It is looking at current stats to help REACH a position.  Granted, there is no way the Cubs can even talk with Pujols now, and by the time they could, there will be a full season of stats there.  If he again puts up a season with an OPS+ at his career levels, then the first six weeks are meaningless.  If his full season ends up anywhere close to where he is now, then I would hope that even your ardor, as well as that of the Cub fans who want to sign Pujols primarily to irritate Cardinal fans, would have faded.
Logged

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25895
Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
« Reply #59 on: May 13, 2011, 08:59:38 pm »
I guess the accuracy of the Soriano comparison depends a lot on what you think Pujols will end up making.  Sure, the 5 year deal in the poll isn't going to be anywhere close to as bad as Soriano.  If he stays reasonably healthy, the worst case scenario is it turns out to be as "bad" as the Dempster and Ramirez contracts have been...worth it for the first half, but a bit of overpayment for a productive player for the second half.

But Pujols' starting point seems to be 10 years, $300 million.  If that's what he wants, I don't think you're going to get that down much lower than 8/$250 million with a lot of clauses (no trade, vesting options, etc.).  Even Pujols is going to be a Soriano-like albatross on the back end of that deal...I mean, look at ARod.  He signed his most recent contract at about the same age Pujols will be this offseason.  And 4 years in, that contract looks like it'll be entering Soriano territory by 2012 or 2013.

I'm hopeful that something will materialize that doesn't include Pujols or Fielder (my Teixeira fantasy?  Dodgers forced to trade Ethier because of money?).  I'd really prefer to stay away from both first basemen...Pujols because of the cost for his decline years, and Fielder because I don't think he's going to age well at all.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5   Go Up
« previous next »