Author Topic: Today's Game 2018  (Read 68238 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1365 on: April 17, 2018, 10:54:35 pm »
The only link above that has anything to do with team success is the first, and that lists about 8 teams that ended up with good records despite poor RISP stats, an incomplete list that doesn't mention other factors.

The 4th link actually address what stats are predictive of teams winning


1.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in average with RISP?
2.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in OPS with RISP?
3.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in runs with RISP?

Please provide 1 link on why it matters, is a skill, or is predictive of anything.



craig

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1366 on: April 17, 2018, 11:13:35 pm »
Cubs have 7 starters hitting .235 or less.  Hard to get hits with RISP when you don't hit the ball hard very often. 

But, funny thing is, with their .238 team average, the Cubs are 11th in mlb in team batting average; 18th in HR; 10th in OPS; 9th in OBP; and 12th in runs.  Granted, seems half of the composite offense came in the Pirates and Braves games.  Hard to believe the daily futility on offense is a top-half offense.... 

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1367 on: April 17, 2018, 11:21:33 pm »
They really should've addressed this really dysfunctional offense in the offseason.

Cubs rank 11th in runs scored despite playing less games than teams ahead of them
Cubs starter have thrown 71.2 innings and given up 44 runs.  That ranks 28th in majors in IP behind only the Tigers and Twins.  The Cubs starters rank 11th worst in runs allowed.  The Astros starters have given up 10 less runs than the Cubs with 30+ IP. 
The Cubs bullpen has pitcher 60.1 IP ranking 10th.  They have allowed 15 runs ranking 26th in runs allowed. 

One part of this team sucks so far.  It isn't the offense or bullpen.


Chris27

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1368 on: April 17, 2018, 11:28:08 pm »
The 4th link actually address what stats are predictive of teams winning


1.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in average with RISP?
2.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in OPS with RISP?
3.) The 2016 Cubs ranked what in runs with RISP?

Please provide 1 link on why it matters, is a skill, or is predictive of anything.


The 4th link suggests RISP is important but suggests a team's overall offense dictates how it hits in those situations, which is a chicken/egg question.

How anyone can argue that an offense isn't better when a team hits well with runners on and in scoring position is a mystery to me. Can a team occasionally win if they're awful w/ RISP? Of course, if that team has incredible pitching, really bad divisional competition, or some combination thereof.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2018, 11:30:53 pm by Chris27 »
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Chris27

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1369 on: April 17, 2018, 11:29:58 pm »
Cubs rank 11th in runs scored despite playing less games than teams ahead of them

....

One part of this team sucks so far.  It isn't the offense or bullpen.

Try breaking the offense down by team wins and losses. I think you'll see a discrepancy. And let's be real. Many of the Cubs runs in two of their games were very fortunate or outright gifts (Atlanta, Milwaukee).

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1370 on: April 17, 2018, 11:31:34 pm »
Cubs have 7 starters hitting .235 or less.  Hard to get hits with RISP when you don't hit the ball hard very often. 

But, funny thing is, with their .238 team average, the Cubs are 11th in mlb in team batting average; 18th in HR; 10th in OPS; 9th in OBP; and 12th in runs.  Granted, seems half of the composite offense came in the Pirates and Braves games.  Hard to believe the daily futility on offense is a top-half offense.... 

1.) Small sample size
2.) 14th in wRC+
3.) 9th in OBP
4.) 12th in slugging
5.) The offense would be better if Almora and Zobrist got more playing time then Happ and Heyward.
6.) Russell's struggles is shocking to me.  He has a 14% BB%, 16% K%.  If you gave me just those numbers I'd think he'd be a wRC+ of 130 or so.  Instead his power is gone and his babip is in the crapper.  What is even more shocking is his hard hit percentage is a career high.  His line drive percentage is up, his GB% is down.  His infield fly ball percentage is up and as is his soft hit percentage, but those have been around this level before. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1371 on: April 17, 2018, 11:56:14 pm »
Try breaking the offense down by team wins and losses. I think you'll see a discrepancy. And let's be real. Many of the Cubs runs in two of their games were very fortunate or outright gifts (Atlanta, Milwaukee).

The Cubs have only given up less than 3 runs in 3 of their loses.  They have given up more than 4 runs in 4 of their wins.

Another way of putting it if the Cubs scored 4 runs every game they would be 5-10. (Ties count as loses)
If they scored 5 runs in every game they would be 6-9
6 runs 9-6
7 runs 13-2

So we just need the offense to 6 runs a game every game to be in second place or 7 runs to be in first place.  Yep, all the offenses fault.

brjones

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1372 on: April 18, 2018, 12:03:56 am »
1.) Small sample size

This is where we disagree. It's not a small sample size...including the playoffs last year, we're at almost 200 games with this set of position players. They've been frustratingly inconsistent. You can point to the total runs scored...sure, the Cubs have done well there. But it's mostly because they dominated when they had the weakest schedule in baseball after the All Star break last year.

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1373 on: April 18, 2018, 12:12:42 am »
How anyone can argue that an offense isn't better when a team hits well with runners on and in scoring position is a mystery to me. Can a team occasionally win if they're awful w/ RISP? Of course, if that team has incredible pitching, really bad divisional competition, or some combination thereof.

I'll answer my question

The 2016 Cubs were 21st in RISP average, 8th in OPS and 3rd in runners scored with RISP.  All that team did was be 3rd in runs scored and win the World Series. 

You are only looking at average which doesn't give the whole picture of a batter's performance.  Going back to 1999 only 7 times has the World Series champ been in the top in RISP average.  The Giants won 3 world series without ever being in the top 5. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1374 on: April 18, 2018, 12:14:52 am »
This is where we disagree. It's not a small sample size...including the playoffs last year, we're at almost 200 games with this set of position players. They've been frustratingly inconsistent. You can point to the total runs scored...sure, the Cubs have done well there. But it's mostly because they dominated when they had the weakest schedule in baseball after the All Star break last year.

This is confirmation bias.  Go back to 2016 and the Cubs were inconsistent.  The 2017 Astros weren't consistent.  No team is consistent. 

The NL Central last year was 1 of 2 divisions with 3 teams with a winning record.

The NL East had 1 team with more than 80 wins. 

Their are plenty of weak schedules in baseball.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 12:20:48 am by CUBluejays »

brjones

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1375 on: April 18, 2018, 09:29:38 am »
Cubs postponed again. They'll make it up tomorrow.

CurtOne

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1376 on: April 18, 2018, 09:31:59 am »
Wussies.   They don't play enough baseball, Mr. Rizzo!  Back up the truck.  Fire Maddon.  Trade 'em all!
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BearHit

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1377 on: April 18, 2018, 10:34:41 am »
Double-headers only - Start the season in May - end in August

method

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1378 on: April 18, 2018, 10:39:03 am »
Double-headers only - Start the season in May - end in August

That sounds brutal... lol.

I do think going back to having 4-5 scheduled DH's is a good idea.

Bennett

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1379 on: April 18, 2018, 10:50:01 am »
I hope summer is on a weekend this year.
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