Author Topic: Today's Game 2018  (Read 68287 times)

Playtwo

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1515 on: April 21, 2018, 10:31:15 am »
Almora has good numbers vs RHP going back to the middle of last season.  It's not very many plate appearances (perhaps 70), but it bodes very well for the possibility of his claiming the everyday CF job.  I think it's premature to send Happ down now, but if Almora keeps this up for another month or so, you have to consider it.

craig

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1516 on: April 21, 2018, 11:43:28 am »
Almora has good numbers vs RHP going back to the middle of last season.  It's not very many plate appearances (perhaps 70), but it bodes very well for the possibility of his claiming the everyday CF job.  I think it's premature to send Happ down now, but if Almora keeps this up for another month or so, you have to consider it.

Almora has <300 PA total versus RHP, so it's not compelling that his earlier limited-size-sample is totally more predictive than his smaller but more recent sample. 

Career, in <300PA, he's a .280 hitter with a .720 OPS vs RHP.  Nothing great, but not necessarily awful or anything. 

Hopefully Happ will rebound and be much better than that, and take those starts back.  But it's not like a good team can't have a .280/.720 guy starting and playing at a defensive position. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1517 on: April 21, 2018, 12:18:33 pm »
In 2016 Almora had a wRC+ of 93 against righties.

In 2017 he had 123 PA against righties that were bad and 75 that where really good after some adjustments. So far this year he has 25 PA against righties with well above average results. I don’t anybody can say that Almora can’t or can hit righties. I see no reason not to give him a chance to.

Happ will eventually get better. I’ve always liked him for more for of a Zobrist role with the team.

mO

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1518 on: April 21, 2018, 01:31:05 pm »

brjones

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1519 on: April 21, 2018, 02:18:50 pm »
My skepticism of Almora comes more from his inability to hit that well in the minor leagues than it does for his small sample of MLB bats vs. RHP. Maddon has limited Almora's ABs against RH starters primarily to when he thinks Almora matches up well with the pitcher's repertoire. Most of the RHP he has faced are reverse or no splits guys, and the Cubs have been open that Maddon has been selective with when he uses Almora (for example, here's a link to an article where Theo praises Maddon for his use of Almora: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/09/20/cubs-theo-epstein-praises-joe-maddons-use-of-albert-almora/).

In the minors, he faced everyone. His OPS from A+ and after:

2014 A+: .712
2014 AA: .605
2015 AA: .727
2016 AAA: .733

Almora just didn't hit much at higher levels when he was playing every day. So I'm just not that confident that he'll be able to do it at the MLB level either if Maddon stops being selective with his PAs.

davep

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1520 on: April 21, 2018, 03:05:02 pm »
What is the current weather report?  Are we likely to get a game in tonight?

Playtwo

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1521 on: April 21, 2018, 03:13:09 pm »
Low 40s and cloudy.  Should be able to get the game in.  Much nicer weather tomorrow.

ben

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1522 on: April 21, 2018, 03:19:08 pm »
brjones, your concerns about Almora may be right.  However...

I remember when the Cubs traded a good young SS, Ivan DeJesus, for a tremendous defensive, aging-SS, Larry Bowa.

And Philadelphia threw in a young guy named Ryne Sandberg.  Pretty decent MiLB numbers, a bit better than Almora's but nothing at all eye-popping.   The following year he was playing at Wrigley and hadn't shown much power: I remember seeing him hit a VERY long home run and thought, wow, where did that come from?  The power didn't show with any consistency for a while, but he got much stronger as he moved through his 20s and was taught how to really turn on the ball by his goofy little manager, Jim Frey...and he adjusted!

Don't want to jinx Almora with a full-on comparison to a HOFer; however, Almora doesn't look at all like the same skinny kid Theo drafted #6...and when Albert squares it up in the air, it's LONG gone!  LIke Sandberg, he's a plus defender and has tremendous baseball instincts.

Who knows what Almora's trajectory will be...will he continue to improve his pitch recognition and drive the ball even better as time goes by, as Sandbery certainly did?  Impossible to know right now, but I wouldn't put too much stock in his MiLB numbers.  Some guys just get bigger and stronger, and develop recognition skills that enable them to hit much better in the majors than minors.  Not many adjust really well, but some do.

It's mostly based on my non-expert anecdotal observations (and Theo/Joe's confidence, which is worth a million times more), but I think Almora just might well be one of those guys who becomes a much better hitter at the MLB level as he moves further into his 20s.

 


Bennett

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1523 on: April 21, 2018, 03:22:25 pm »
No surprise - Javy Baez bats second


Deeg

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1524 on: April 21, 2018, 05:39:53 pm »
Ride the hot hand with Albert until he proves he can't hit righties (or at least, yet).  I believe there's ample reason to be skeptical that he can, but with Happ struggling it's not as though we're benching a 25-YO Willie Mays to leave Almora out there.  I'd still bet on Happ being the better hitter before the year shakes out, but let him work on it while Almora surfs the wave.

Bennett

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1525 on: April 21, 2018, 07:16:24 pm »
Cubs picking up where they left off Friday night - After an Almora bloop single Baez singles to center.

ticohans

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1526 on: April 21, 2018, 07:24:31 pm »
Holy f this ump called out Rizzo on a pitch like 5 inches low of the zone.

Now with the Contreras double the ump has given us an out, stolen a run, and added artificially to everyone’s favorite RISP and K stats.

brjones

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1527 on: April 21, 2018, 07:27:06 pm »
The Contreras ball appeared to bounce off the top of the wall. Is that not a homer?

Tuffy

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1528 on: April 21, 2018, 07:33:03 pm »
Where did it go after bouncing off the wall?  If it went back on the field, it's in play.

Bennett

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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #1529 on: April 21, 2018, 07:38:25 pm »
Tuffy, a fan with a glove was involved.