Author Topic: Today's Game - 2021  (Read 43727 times)

Dave23

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #90 on: March 08, 2021, 10:26:36 pm »
All that, plus his baseball IQ is ++...

craig

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #91 on: March 08, 2021, 10:55:24 pm »
...... what else was there that he needed work on?  ...

Possibly his hitting?  For example, perhaps he needs work on using the whole field?  Perhaps he needs work on driving the ball and getting more extension?  Perhaps on hitting the ball earlier and further out?  (I recall that supposedly being the adjustment that Justin Turner supposedly made that turned his career around.).  Perhaps his weight-shift? 

I'm not saying that I know.  But I think there was perhaps more to his hitting issues last year than just the lack of physical strength?  Or that with the added strength all issues are gone.

I'm sure hoping he's the guy and that he's going to be good.  I agree, in the couple of AB's I've seen, he does look much stronger physically.  And I think perhaps some other hitting adjustments have already been made. 

Often a pull hitter or a power hitter is instructed to learn to hit to the opposite field.  If he drives the ball and pulls the ball for power a lot, but doesn't use the opposite field a lot, that's criticized.  (With reason).  But I think when a guy constantly goes opposite field, and does NOT use the pull field, he is not equivalently criticized.  My subjective observation of Hoerner last year was that he was so radically opposite field, it was counterproductive.  Inside pitches, he'd still fist it opposite-way.  His stance alignment and his weight shift were overly committed to opposite way, and didn't have the flexibility to respond to actual pitches and pull those that should be pulled.

So, I'm thinking his ability to use left field, to pull inside pitches, and to get his bat out and to drive inside pitches or offspeed stuff would help him.

To some degree I think that may already perhaps be the case?  In his AB's today, in one of them he pulled a ball fairly sharply foul past 3B.  One of his hits he was able to at least get it to CF, maybe even a few degrees left of dead center.  But yeah, I think getting his hands out and hitting some balls to left is something he'll need to do in order to be good.   

craig

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #92 on: March 08, 2021, 11:02:10 pm »
I think *IF* the Cubs want to go for it this year and try to be good, they probably need to gamble on Hoerner being the answer.  I don't feel like Bote and Vargas/Sogard are going to help the lineup all that much.  Sogard can't hit.  I'd love to see Bote step up and be increasingly productive, so he might end up being pretty good at 2B.  But *IF* Hoerner can hit and be the primary 2b, with Bote as a bench guy, that gives the lineup a much better chance. And could also perhaps free Bryant to play more LF versus tough lefties, and let Joc semi-platoon. 

Hoerner might not be good, but he might.  The Cubs need some might-be-good guys to work out and to be good, in order to have a happy season. 

And if Hoerner could hit, having his defense at 2B every day would really reinforce the team defense. 

davep

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #93 on: March 08, 2021, 11:13:34 pm »
The problem with the question of "is he ready" is defining the term ready.  Has he been around long enough for the good pitchers and scouts to find and exploit his weaknesses?  Has he been able to adjust to those exploitations?  Is he physically strong enough to withstand the rigors of a full season.

The situation we are currently in should have taught us that six years of MLB control go swiftly.  If we bring a player up that is going to struggle in the majors, even if he learns as he goes as well or better than he could have in the minors, we might have wasted two or more if his controlled years.  Much better to do his learning, as well as his physical maturation in the minors.  We had lost years with Happ.  Lost years with Javy.  And lost years with Schwarber, all of which has come back to bite us now.  It was perhaps understandable in 2016, when we were going for it all in a year we had a reasonable chance to make it.  But I highly doubt that Hoerner's presence, no matter how well he does, is likely to bring us to the World series.

I agree with Deeg that spring training stats mean very little, especially this early, when more than half of the pitchers faced will probably be in the minors or out of baseball in three weeks.  At the same time, it seems silly to say that thus far, Hoerner has stunk.  A .247 major league BA for the first 186 at bats is hardly stellar, but is probably as good or better than most rookies his age, and came with excellent defense.  Hoerner contributed in his first year or so, but I doubt that his contribution will be very much above average this year, and will end with another wasted year of control.

He may be ready to play at a reasonable level this year, but I doubt highly that he will be able to excel, as he might do with another year's experience and maturation.  I hope they do not start him with the big league team this April.

All this comes with the caveat that those who make the decision will have so much more information at their disposal to make that decision than we have that is doesn't make a lot of sense for any of us to second guess that decision.

CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #94 on: March 08, 2021, 11:14:49 pm »
High contact guys don't gain much in the minors.

Hoerner needs to elevate the ball off the ground to be a good hitter.  His launch angle last year was 0.8%, he seems to be elevating the ball more.

He hits the ball up the middle too much and would benefit from pulling it more.  Career in the majors he 33.8% pull (36.6 MLB average), Straight 43.5% (37.9%), Oppo 22.7% (25.5).  In 2019 his pull % was 29.1, straight 46.5%, 24.4%.  The bigger issue is 55.2% GB% which was 57% in 2019.  He elevates the ball and he'll be above average on offense.  Hoerner stayed in Chicago over the winter to work with coaching staff on this.  That is bigger than his strength gains.

His biggest help is going to be on defense though.  He was 95th percentile in Outs Above Average last year.  With a staff dedicated to contact his defense is going to be more important than his offense.
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Reb

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #95 on: March 09, 2021, 12:10:28 am »
I see very little downside keeping Hoerner up to open the season.

With Hoerner at SB camp for a month and then Iowa—his ABs would go to marginal regulars Bote/Sogard or Vargas. And less defense with those guys. Don’t see much upside there. It’s not like the job goes to an established impact guy.

If Hoerner stays and struggles and has to go to Iowa, fine. Even then, the struggles are very unlikely to hurt him long-term.

Hoerner will be age 24 six weeks into the season. He’s not a kid.

His future is tied to increasing his slug in a major way. He is 0.86 iso career and that translates to a utility guy if he stayed at or near that level. Think that’s in the view mirror and we’re going to see a very big increase with him in 2021. Just give him the ABs and let’s see what happens.

craig

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #96 on: March 09, 2021, 04:13:02 am »
I see very little downside keeping Hoerner up to open the season.

With Hoerner at SB camp for a month and then Iowa—his ABs would go to marginal regulars Bote/Sogard or Vargas. And less defense with those guys. Don’t see much upside there. .....

Thanks, reb.  You express the Nowacrat perspective very well.

craig

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #97 on: March 09, 2021, 04:16:01 am »
For a rookie who hadn't previously been called up, how long does a guy normally need to stay down to NOT click in his first season towards arbitration?  50 games or so, I'm thinking?  So with hoerner having used up 20 games or so of service two years ago, he'd probably need to stay down for maybe 70 to avoid this season burning his 2nd pre-arb year? 

So basically this year and next are his only remaining pre-arb seasons, unless you keep him down for like 70 games?   

Dave's reasoning touches on the frustration of burning a player's club-controlled cheap years on development years.  By burning two of Hoerner's club-controlled years last year and this, you may regret it in 4 years  when he's then in his prime and perhaps is really good, but is already expiring.  (And perhaps if the next mlb shortens the years to FA, maybe he'll already be expiring in only three years?).




CUBluejays

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #98 on: March 09, 2021, 06:57:10 am »
Hoerner usually isn’t the type that is super expensive even in free agency. Wong would be a good example of his type of player. You might even be able to get him to sign an extension to keep his AAV down.

davep

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #99 on: March 09, 2021, 08:25:02 am »
If you can sign him now to a Bote type contract, fine.  Keep him up..

If you are on the cusp of having a dominant season, fine.  Keep him up.

But if you feel that there is little chance of being a Dodgers or Padres type season, leave him in the minors for development.  Contact hitters have holes in their swings just as much as sluggers.  Let the AAA pitchers find his weaknesses, and let him learn to adjust to that at a time when winning the particular game is not the paramount goal.  Can he hit a well commanded high fastball, followed by a well commanded low outside slider?  We should find out in the minors, not the majors. 

Granted, he is a contact hitter rather than a slugger.  But that didn't stop hitting him about .200 last year, and 15 spring training at bats against mostly minor league pitchers really don't show us that much.  Let's not make the same mistake that we made with Happ, Schwarber and probably Baez.  Development should come in the minors, where is learning is stressed, not the majors, where winning is stressed.

JeffH

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #100 on: March 09, 2021, 09:10:46 am »
According to Arizona Phil, Trevor Megill was 97-99 with the fastball in yesterday's game.

JeffH

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #101 on: March 09, 2021, 10:11:09 am »
Trevor Williams starting for Cubs today vs. A’s. Closer Craig Kimbrel scheduled to get work in behind him, along with Holder, Jewell, Maples and Rucker. - Jordan Bastian

Maples day!

JeffH

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #102 on: March 09, 2021, 10:28:25 am »
Sogard and Duffy are making their spring debuts today.

JR

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #103 on: March 09, 2021, 10:31:24 am »
Sogard and Duffy are making their spring debuts today.

One thing I realized the other day when looking back at the 2012 draft for the Cubs, both David Bote and Matt Duffy were 18th round picks that year. 

Reb

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #104 on: March 09, 2021, 01:02:32 pm »
Thanks, reb.  You express the Nowacrat perspective very well.

I don’t see it as necessarily a Nowacrat argument. I see getting major league ABs now as HELPING his future. His development is likely to be enhanced dealing with major league pitchers compared to lesser pitchers.

If Hoerner had a fragile confidence level (which doesn't appear he does), then he would be a better candidate for Iowa now.

True, i think he’s the best 2B Cubs candidate now, a Nowacrat notion, but the default position with him should be majors unless shown otherwise if he struggles, for development purposes.

Optioning him primarily based on service time factors—a guy with 1+ years of service time—would be one of the worst abuses of the current cba. A really bad idea.