By all accounts, this is Chicago Bears GM Ryan Pace’s biggest off-season yet, as he heads into his fourth year with a less-than-stellar 14-34 record.
On the day the Bears fired former head coach John Fox, team president Ted Phillips announced a two-year extension for Pace that would put him under contract until after the 2021 season. Many questioned the extension at the time, and rightfully so, but it’s clear the move was done to make the head coaching job more attractive for potential suitors, giving both Pace and the new head coach the same 2021 contract timeline.
Just a week after the team parted ways with Fox, they hired former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and went to work on their coaching staff.
While it’s always impossible to judge a head coaching hire before games are played, the value of hiring Nagy quickly and the timing of the Chiefs loss in the opening week of the playoffs can’t be overlooked.
Nagy moved fast on his coaching staff, quickly wrapping up all three coordinator positions, the most important of which was retaining defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
With the coaching staff intact, the Bears will look to get their ducks in a row before the start of free agency on March 14th. Many roster decisions still need to be made.
Before the team heads into the free-agent market, expect a bevy of cuts and/or restructured contracts. According to the NFLPA, the Bears are expected to carry more than $7.6 million in cap space from 2017. The club currently has $143.995 million accounted for with their top 51 contracts. With those numbers in mind, and the 2018 NFL salary cap expected to be in the league of $178 million, the Bears would walk into the off-season with roughly $41.6 million in cap space.
Without cuts, the Bears cap figure (give or take a few million) will rank within the top 10 of all NFL teams but with some expected cuts factored in, they could see close to a $40 million jump in cap space before the start of free agency. That's said, it’s important to remember that multiple teams will have just as much, if not more cap space moving into the acquisition period.
Likely Cut Candidates: ($39.745 million in savings)
QB Mike Glennon, $11.5 million
OLB Pernell McPhee, $7.075 million
WR Markus Wheaton, $5 million
OLB Willie Young, $4.5 million
CB Marcus Cooper, $4.5 million
S Quintin Demps, $3.67 million
LB Jerrell Freeman, $3.5 million
Other Possibilities: ($19.26 million)
OG Josh Sitton, $8 million
TE Dion Sims, $5.66 million
OT Bobby Massie, $5.6 million
As seen above, the Bears have many ways to create cap flexibility and will be able to position themselves well financially as they look toward March.
Pending Free Agents
Once roster decisions are made on players currently under contract, Pace will turn to his own pending free agents. That starts at the cornerback position.
-CB Kyle Fuller
Fuller is the team’s highest priority moving into the off-season and someone they simply can’t afford to lose. With the return of Fangio, the chances of Fuller returning are likely higher than they were at season's end.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old has had an up-and-down career since being selected 14th overall in the 2013 draft but he broke out in 2017 under Fangio, finishing second in the NFL in pass breakups (22). There's certainly a level of unpredictability in terms of his production but there’s also no guarantee that Fuller will re-sign without a lucrative contract.
On the open market, Fuller is likely to land a four-to-five year deal with an annual value around $11-to-$13 million. The Bears can afford that price tag but may not be overly comfortable with it. If that's the case, the franchise tag becomes a realistic option.
-CB Prince Amukamara
Amukamara is ranked second on the list simply due to his age and limited upside, as he profiles more as a No. 2 corner. Still, he’s a key piece to the defense moving forward, even if only on a short-term basis, while they groom a younger player with more upside to take over in the near future.
A starting combination of Fuller and Amukamara won't be elite but the duo could provide a steady presence on the edges of Fangio's defense, particularly if the front seven continues to develop as pass rushers.
Amukamara has stated he wants to remain in Chicago and feels the team is building some “special”, which could make him a lot easier to lock down on a two-to-three year deal around $7 million annually with a low guarantee, which would allow them to draft his eventual replacement.
-P Patrick O’Donnell
Punter is an important piece to lock up before the free agent period starts, as the team doesn’t currently have a specialist under contract for the 2018 season. While O’Donnell hasn't consistently a top-end punter in the league, he’s a former draft pick that has improved each year.
The Bears are a team that should be looking for continuity heading into Year 4 of a rebuild and locking up their punter to a multi-year deal around $2.5-3 million per year seems like a no-brainer to me.
-WR Kendall Wright
Wright’s current situation is a little strange considering his two-time offensive coordinator in Dowell Loggains is gone and Nagy’s offense is based more on speed than anything else, something like Wright lacks at this point in his career.
With that in mind, Wright led the team in receptions, receiving yards and reliability during a rocky 2017 season and that should at least be worth a short-term deal on low-risk money in the $1-2 million range.
Other Pending Free Agents
LB Christian Jones, K Cairo Santos, CB Sherrick McManis and DL Mitch Unrein.
The Bears will also have a group of restricted free agents that should play key roles in 2018. These players aren’t currently under contract but are under team control if the club chooses to tender them.
WR Cameron Meredith
CB Bryce Callahan
LS Patrick Scales
LB John Timu
Meredith and Callahan are both players that Pace could look to lock up on a cheaper long-term deals, instead of extending tenders that would only keep them under contract through 2018.
What To Expect In the Coming Weeks
Judging by recent years, Pace and Co. will start the trimming process in the last week or two in February, which will carry into the beginning of March.
Fuller is the only player on the roster worth the franchise tag, which has to be administered between Feb. 20-March 6. Pace may make some back-end acquisitions but the majority of the roster work will come in the way of cuts. A few dates to keep in mind in regard to cuts.
February 10th- March 9th
During this period, the Bears will have a choice to make on their option with 32-year-old veteran Josh Sitton. If they opt to exercise the $8.57 million option, they can cut him at any point into the new league year but most NFL teams give veterans the respect of cutting them early and letting them latch on with another team as soon as possible.
March 16th
This is a big day for multiple players because, if kept after this point, there’s a strong chance they’ll have roster spots for the 2018 season.
TE Dion Sims: $4 million of his $6 millon bases salary would be guaranteed.
QB Mike Glennon: $2.5 million roster bonus.
CB Markus Cooper: $2 million base salary becomes guaranteed.
RT Bobby Massie: $1 million roster bonus.
March 18th
S Quintin Demps: $500,000 roster bonus.
Expect a busy free-agent period for the Bear, ideally with a long-term outlook of players that will not help in 2018 but serve as multi-year pieces that will create continuity, while also cutting down on the 30 percent roster turnover that is likely in 2018.
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