I'd think ~$275.
2024, three tiers in the top 14:
1. Tier 1: NY, LA, NY ($350-314)
2. Tier 2: Braves, Philly, Houston, Texas, Giants ($278-248).
3. Tier 3: Toronto, Cubs, Padres, Boston, Arizona, St. Louis ($235-215).
I’ve said about $20 above the first CBT tier, which would be $257 in 2024. CBT goes to $241 in 2025, so about $260.
Phillies spending is unusual as their owner has said he “doesn’t care” how much he spends on payroll. See link below. Yes, John Middleton is a better owner than Ricketts but he’s unusual.
Braves spending varies year to year quite a bit. Braves were at $246 [Roster Resource/Fangraphs] in 2023 and jumped a lot in 2024.
Roster Resource has Astros, Rangers, Giants all below $257 for 2024 at $253, 252, 253. In 2023, those clubs were $226, 237, 217. So, they too have been all over the place.
In 2023. padres and Jays were big spenders….and then dropped down in 2024.
Only consistent big spenders are the NY and L.A. clubs and the Phillies “I don’t care how much I spend” owner.
Think that $275 for Cubs is unrealistic compared to any consistent spending pattern of other clubs, aside from NY, LA, Phils, if you look at last couple seasons.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/phillies-owner-john-middleton-says-he-doesnt-care-how-high-payroll-goes-i-just-want-to-win/