Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 424817 times)

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6000 on: August 22, 2017, 11:50:44 am »
No, they didn't roll through but they did win it.  And the Dodgers are certainly better at this point than we were.

It probably comes down to the health of Kershaw, Wood and Darvish - all of whom are dinged right now.  Their depth is so extraordinary that you could take two of those three guys out and the Dodgers would still be the favorites, but they'd be a lot less scary favorite.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6001 on: August 22, 2017, 12:02:10 pm »
I somehow doubt a rotation of Wood, McCarthy, Hill, Maeda is going to scare teams in the playoffs, especially with a bullpen that is basically Jansen/Marrow.

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6002 on: August 22, 2017, 12:05:28 pm »
No, they didn't roll through but they did win it.  And the Dodgers are certainly better at this point than we were.

I'm not so certain about that. They are great but they are no better than a 25-30% favorite to win the WS. They might be slightly bigger favorites than the Cubs last year but only slightly.

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Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6003 on: August 22, 2017, 02:48:28 pm »
Let's put it this way - by pretty much any statistical metric you could use, the Dodgers are considerably better than the Cubs were.  And statistically the Cubs were pretty damn good.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6004 on: August 22, 2017, 02:57:43 pm »
I somehow doubt a rotation of Wood, McCarthy, Hill, Maeda is going to scare teams in the playoffs, especially with a bullpen that is basically Jansen/Marrow.

Well, Baez has a sub-2 ERA.  Avilan is sub-3 in both ERA and FIP.  Fields is 2.56 with 6 H per 9 IP.  But I guess they don't fit your narrative.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6005 on: August 22, 2017, 03:34:34 pm »
Baez has 4/4.70 FIP/xFIP and was better last year.  Last year in the playoffs against the Cubs he had a 5.40 ERA

Avilan is a LOOGY who gets lit up by righties with a .897 OPS this year. 

Fields has 4.23/4.27 FIP/xFIP and has been homer prone.

All of those guys would be behind Uehara, Strop, Duensing, Strop, Edwards, Montgomery in the Cubs bullpen.  I'd love to see these stats that prove the Dodgers are clearly better than the 2016 Cubs.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6006 on: August 22, 2017, 05:52:19 pm »
You're a homer's homer, I'll give you that.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6007 on: August 22, 2017, 06:56:41 pm »
So no stats then. Gotcha.

JR

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6008 on: August 22, 2017, 07:14:30 pm »
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dusty-baker-is-throwing-caution-pitch-counts-to-the-wind/

Just playing devil's advocate for Dusty, 100 pitches is a completely arbitrary number, so who's to say 120-125 pitches is significantly worse? 

The real research into pitcher's injuries needs to come with the stuff pitchers are now required to throw to be noticed by major league teams and to make it to the majors, which I hope outlets like Fangraphs are doing instead of spending so much time on pitch counts.  Focusing on pitch counts as the number #1 way to prevent injuries is 1990's thinking.  You can have pitchers who stay healthy, hold something back when they're starting and pitch to contact, or you can have pitchers who only have a 5-6 year shelf life and throw 95+ with wicked breaking pitches who strike out a batter per inning.  At some point, you really can't have both, no matter if you limit starters to pitch counts of 100 or pitch counts of 120. 

In that sense, I have a hard time criticizing Dusty that much for how he's using his pitchers.  If modern starting pitchers are mostly 5-6 year assets regardless, why not have your starting pitcher pitch that extra inning instead of turning it over to a mediocre middle reliever?  In a way, Dusty's usage might be smarter than a lot of other teams'.

Actually what the future probably looks like if major league teams continue to require pitchers to throw with lights out stuff is you have 3-4 inning starters, followed by 2-3 inning middle relievers, followed by 2-3 inning late relievers.  Some team is going to figure out if you require your pitchers to throw 95+ with plus-plus breaking stuff, the only way to keep them healthy is to really limit their innings and possibly set up your pitching rotations like hockey lines . . . you have your ace pitching line of 3 pitchers for one game, your second line of 3 pitchers for the next game, and your third line of 3 pitchers and so on and so on. 

What's really antiquated with the stuff pitchers are required to throw today is the 6-7 inning, 100 pitch, every 5th day starting pitcher, and sooner or later, some team is going to realize that and have a good sized competitive edge on everyone else.  Until then, I have a hard time faulting a manager who thinks 120 pitches is the magic number instead of 100.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2017, 07:30:19 pm by JR »

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6009 on: August 22, 2017, 07:30:50 pm »
Well a couple of thoughts
1) Throwing harder likely isn't great for the arm, but t most recent research is pointing to abuse in little league/high school and year round pitching.
2) Pitch counts weren't a 90's thing. In 2000 342 pitchers threw 122+ pitches. In 2017 it is 14. Pitch counts are a rather crude measure for pitchers fatigue. A better way is wearable tech, like what the Cubs do in the minors, but I think you can't at the major league level. Dusty accounts for 28% of 120 Pitch games in the majors this year. He is clearly an out side the league norm.
3) Dusty likely isn't responsible for Prior's breakdown, instead it was the collision at 2nd with Giles, but I'm still bitter so screw that.

Reb

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Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6011 on: August 23, 2017, 02:43:17 pm »
Trevor Rosenthal out for the season.

Dave23

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6012 on: August 23, 2017, 04:41:22 pm »
Probably next season, too...

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6013 on: August 23, 2017, 07:41:04 pm »
Rich Hill has a perfect game through 6 on only 64 pitches.  The Dodgers are getting shut out too.

Chris27

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #6014 on: August 23, 2017, 08:05:14 pm »
Now through 7.

9 K's