Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 421624 times)

Bennett

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7455 on: January 01, 2018, 11:47:36 pm »
I have to wonder how much the Mariners' brutal travel schedule affects them over the course of a season.  Just compare the teams in their division (Houston, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Texas) with where the Cubs go in the NL Central (Milwaukee, St. Louis,  Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh).
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brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7456 on: January 03, 2018, 09:28:14 am »
According to different reports, the Padres have a 7 year, $140 million offer on the table for Hosmer, and the Royals are supposedly offering 7 years, $147 million.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7457 on: January 03, 2018, 09:40:56 am »
According to different reports, the Padres have a 7 year, $140 million offer on the table for Hosmer, and the Royals are supposedly offering 7 years, $147 million.
Hosmer's character would dictate his staying in KC, if those figures are true.

JR

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7458 on: January 03, 2018, 09:44:51 am »
He'd likely be saving a lot in taxes staying in Kansas City vs. San Diego.

The flip side is he'd be living much of the time in Kansas City vs living in San Diego.

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7459 on: January 03, 2018, 09:56:20 am »
Both offers seem to be a high price to pay for Hosmer.  He's been good but not great in about half his seasons, and pretty lousy in the other half.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7460 on: January 03, 2018, 10:00:55 am »
Hosmer has some of those intangibles.  People who've played with him say he makes good players better.  KC fans and front office think highly of his character and leadership.

JR

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7461 on: January 03, 2018, 10:26:14 am »
Both offers seem to be a high price to pay for Hosmer.  He's been good but not great in about half his seasons, and pretty lousy in the other half.

I think we're at the new normal where good but not great players are going to get $20 million per year without a blink of an eye.

Carlos Santana just got $20 million per year, and he's older and not quite as good of an all around first baseman.
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brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7462 on: January 03, 2018, 10:40:38 am »
I think I'd take Santana over Hosmer...he's been consistently good not great, while Hosmer alternates years between good-not-great and basically replacement level.

I don't think $20 million a year is that bad for Hosmer, but 7 years is way too much for him. A 3-4 year deal with the same AAV would be reasonable, I think.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7463 on: January 03, 2018, 12:43:45 pm »
Hosmer seems to be at his best when his BABIP >.330, it doesn't seem to be a skill that he can repeat from year to year.  I wouldn't want Santana or Hosmer at those prices, but the shorter deal would be better.

chgojhawk

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7464 on: January 03, 2018, 01:16:54 pm »
Hosmer has a 7 year $133 mil from KC. 6 yr $120mil from SD

Jes Beard

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7465 on: January 04, 2018, 10:39:37 am »
Not exactly Around Baseball today, but wondered if anyone else has any thoughts on the following look at baseball history from another discussion group regarding SB success rates and in articular Ty Cobb:

Cobb would have a huge statistical advantage in calculating his career SB success rate compared to more recent players because during several of the years Cobb played there were no records kept of being caught stealing. For years when BOTH figures were available his record was only 388 SB and 212 CS, which is a low enough rate that Cobb may well have actually been reducing his team's chance of scoring when he stole, not increasing the chance. Counter-intuitive, but true.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbty01.shtml

Stealing is not just a matter of getting a base closer to home and increasing the likelihood of scoring. It is also a matter of each time the runner is caught giving up one of the three precious outs the team at bat has each inning. Generally speaking it is accepted than a SB success rate below 75% is hurting a team at bat more than it is helping the team at bat.... and, for the years with both SB and CS stats, which include Cobb's seasons at ages 18-24, 26, and 30-32, you see he had a success rate of 64.6%.... which simply is NOT very good and is clearly below the break even point.

In fact, if you look at his four seasons at ages 25, 27, 28 and 29, years when he presumably would presumably have been in his prime on the basepaths and for which CS stats are available, you find he had 260 SB and 113 CS, or a success rate of 69.7%, better than his career as a whole, but STILL below the break even point.

Sorry Cobb fans, but Ty simply was not only not helping his team by stealing, and also giving up those outs, he was HURTING hiis team.

For the analysis of the break even point -- https://www.fangraphs.com/.../breaking-down-stolen-base.../ and https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/.../stolen-bases-lack...

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7466 on: January 04, 2018, 06:21:22 pm »
Three way trade between the Royals, Dodgers, and White Sox--White Sox get Joachim Soria and Luis Avilan, Dodgers get Scott Alexander and MiLB IF Jake Peter; Royals get IF Erick Mejia and RHP Trevor Oaks. White Sox are setting themselves up for a couple midseason trades.

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7467 on: January 05, 2018, 07:51:24 pm »
The low end of the reliever market seems to be starting to move. The Padres signed Craig Stammen for 2 years, $4.5 million. Earlier today, the Brewers signed Boone Logan to a 1 year, $2.5 million deal (without going to look it up, I think it also had a 2019 option). Passan also mentioned earlier that the Padres are close to a deal with Kazuhisa Makita.

So maybe we'll see in the next few days if the Cubs are going to add a cheap lefty like Duensing or Watson. One interesting name in that class who I didn't realize was a free agent--Ian Krol. He was outrighted by the Braves, and then he chose free agency. He was bad in 2017, but looked like he was turning into a very good reliever in 2016. He also is 27 and only has 3 years of service time...so that means whoever signs him potentially controls him for 3 years, right?

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7468 on: January 05, 2018, 08:21:29 pm »
Yes

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #7469 on: January 06, 2018, 03:52:57 pm »
Yangervis Solarte traded to the Blue Jays for OF Edward Olivares.