1.) At $20+ million he almost costs the same/year as Price. Zimmerman has had 2 years above rWAR of 4, 1 of fWAR. Price has 2 seasons below rWAR of 4 and 1 with fWAR. Signing either one means Arreita would have to walk.
2.) It is a 0.8 decline from last year. 2009/10 TJS surgery year and recovery will afftect the average.
3.) I don't care what his career average is. I care that he *ISN'T* a ground ball pitcher. Fly ball pitchers who don't strike out people are bad.
4.) Lester has 2 years below 4 rWAR.
5.) When handing out $100+ million contracts concerns matter.
6.) Zimmermann has a career rWAR average in complete seasons of 3.8, using fWAR it is 3.72. He has been fWAR 3.4, 3.3, 3.7, 5.3, 2.9. I think that is fair to call him a 3 WAR pitcher, who could be starting his decline.
Want to point out one small thing at the outset for future reference. It's a small thing but want to point out in interest of accuracy.
Take point 6. Zimmerman had a partial season in 2011, not a complete season. But, putting that aside, the rWAR average of the seasons you mention is 3.88. Most folks would round that off to 3.9 but you average that down to 3.8. 3.88 to 3.8 rather than to 3.9? Yes, it's a small thing but if you want to be more credible, it would be helpful to be as true to the math as possible Just don't do that, please. If don't want to say 3.88, fine, but don't round off to 3.8. Small thing but why do that?
Using only full seasons, Zimmermann's rWAR average is 4.15. No, that doesn't fit into the future 3.0 WAR argument but if we're talking complete seasons, let the facts fall where they may instead of shoehorning the facts into a result that one wants.
1. As to Price/Zimmermann, have never heard the argument that Zimmermann "almost costs the same/year as Price." If that is the case, count me out on Zimmermann. But, don't think that will be true. Price figures to get about 50% more than Zimmermann.
2. 0.8 drop in velocity is only a factor if you assume it will continue downward. 0.8 drop is Jon Lester from 2013 to 2015. David Price had a 2.0 drop in velocity from 2012 to 2013---and was okay going forward, right? You are making assumptions that are based on a very thin reed. Velocity can fluctuate a bit from season to season. 0.8, standing alone, is just not that significant.
3. Don't strike out people? His K ratio is very,very close to his career average, as I pointed out. GB/FB basically the same. NO real change in either. And, he's been successful at those ratios. No stat support for your concerns.
4. No, its 3 seasons below 4.0. 2012, 2013, 2015--which happen to be 3 of last 4 seasons. I'm fine with that. Still like Lester.
5. Really, how many pitchers come without concerns. Even expensive ones. A factor to take into account when making an offer, of course. But, the concerns are minimal, I think.
6. See above.
My view is that Zimmermann has pluses and a concern because of the TJ history. So, rather than making a broad pronouncement on these facts, I'm fine with leaving it to Theo to assess his interest or non-interest. Assuming an interest, feeling around industry seems to be that Zimmermann interested in going back near his home in Midwest. No, he is not David Price. But, guessing could be a good fit to slide into rotation with Lester and Arrieta at the top.