Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 421671 times)

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #570 on: September 15, 2015, 10:20:19 pm »
If the Cubs don't get Price and Samardzija doesn't get a QO, I would be interested in 1 year deal and let Bosio fix him.

+1.  Bosio is really good at his job.  He helped get Samardzija on track once, maybe he could do it again.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #571 on: September 15, 2015, 10:23:14 pm »
If we can get Samardzjia on a Hammel/Feldman deal, I'd like to have him back.
Shut up, you little snotnosed brat.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #572 on: September 15, 2015, 11:57:17 pm »
Belt error leads to a 5 run inning for the Reds 8-5 in the 7th.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #573 on: September 16, 2015, 12:34:37 am »
Do not want Zimmermann.  The K's disappeared and he's 7 years out from TJS.

Zimmermann's K rate (7.3 per 9) is virtually identical to his career rate (7.4). He is down from 2014, which is now looking like a K outlier.

His TJ was in 8/2009---6 years, not 7.

That he has not repeated his 2014 season means his price probably will be lower than seemed entering this season.  So, he may be more affordable---maybe reasonable enough so that Cubs can re-sign Arrieta when time comes for that. Zimmermann is really good pitcher and competitor.

Don't think there is any real hard data on TJ withering after X number of years. We've talked about this before. But, would not ignore his history entirely either, so consider a deal taking the risk into account in light of his career performance, compared to who else is available. Will be interested to see Theo/Hoyer's evaluation of him and if they pursue him. Sure they will do their "due diligence." Think I will defer to their call.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #574 on: September 16, 2015, 02:39:37 am »
Dodgers and Rockies used 22 relievers in their 16 inning game tonight. That doesn't count the reliever Rockies played in RF 16th inning.

ben

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #575 on: September 16, 2015, 07:23:09 am »
REALLY great to see the Reds get 5 in the 7th and a Todd Frazier HR in the 10th to beat the Giants! 

Man, it's tough on contenders winning games this time of the season...teams with nothing to lose are even more dangerous.

Let's hope the Giants lose more in upcoming games so the pressure is off us and we can set our rotation a for October 7.


CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #577 on: September 16, 2015, 10:18:06 am »
Zimmermann's K rate (7.3 per 9) is virtually identical to his career rate (7.4). He is down from 2014, which is now looking like a K outlier.

His TJ was in 8/2009---6 years, not 7.

That he has not repeated his 2014 season means his price probably will be lower than seemed entering this season.  So, he may be more affordable---maybe reasonable enough so that Cubs can re-sign Arrieta when time comes for that. Zimmermann is really good pitcher and competitor.

Don't think there is any real hard data on TJ withering after X number of years. We've talked about this before. But, would not ignore his history entirely either, so consider a deal taking the risk into account in light of his career performance, compared to who else is available. Will be interested to see Theo/Hoyer's evaluation of him and if they pursue him. Sure they will do their "due diligence." Think I will defer to their call.

Zimmermann without the K's is 3 WARish pitcher.  That is a really good pitcher.  It is also somebody that is going to cost around $20 million AAV and over $100 million.  He may not get Lester money, but he is still going to be expensive.

Reasons I don't want him.
1.) He is still expensive
2.) At 29 his fastball is down almost 1 mph for his peak.  If that tend continues he is going to have an average fastball pretty quickly
3.) His GB% is 40%.  Flyball pitchers that don't strike out people don't age well.
4.) When he regresses it is going to be from a much lower level than Lester/Price.  He is going to be league average much quicker than they will and the contract will look bad a lot quicker.
5.) Being 6 years out from TJS and losing 1 mph off his fastball does not give me the warm fuzzy feeling that it isn't something to be concerned about.
6.) His xFIP is 3.8, FIP is 3.68, SIERA 3.81.  These are all career highs.

If the Cubs are going to give out big money to a pitcher it needs to be Price.  If they can't get Price they need to look for value or trade for somebody. 

jacey1

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #578 on: September 16, 2015, 01:12:35 pm »
Just saw where Josh Johnson is going to get his THIRD Tommy John surgery....i hope he uses a new surgeon.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #579 on: September 16, 2015, 01:45:30 pm »
Zimmermann without the K's is 3 WARish pitcher.  That is a really good pitcher.  It is also somebody that is going to cost around $20 million AAV and over $100 million.  He may not get Lester money, but he is still going to be expensive.

Reasons I don't want him.
1.) He is still expensive
2.) At 29 his fastball is down almost 1 mph for his peak.  If that tend continues he is going to have an average fastball pretty quickly
3.) His GB% is 40%.  Flyball pitchers that don't strike out people don't age well.
4.) When he regresses it is going to be from a much lower level than Lester/Price.  He is going to be league average much quicker than they will and the contract will look bad a lot quicker.
5.) Being 6 years out from TJS and losing 1 mph off his fastball does not give me the warm fuzzy feeling that it isn't something to be concerned about.
6.) His xFIP is 3.8, FIP is 3.68, SIERA 3.81.  These are all career highs.

If the Cubs are going to give out big money to a pitcher it needs to be Price.  If they can't get Price they need to look for value or trade for somebody. 


1. Anybody any good is likely expensive. Sure, could trade for club friendly deal like Carassco but costly in traded players.

2. Zimmermann career average velocity is 93.5. 2015 is 93.0. Just not a big deal.

3. Career GB/FB ratio: 0.76. 2015: 0.75. Again, next to nothing deal. No real change.

4. Actually having a similar, if not better, season than Lester-at-age 29. You can downgrade any pitcher if you "assume" regression. That is speculation, not facts.

5. TJ history is a concern but speculative going forward. 0.5 velocity drop from career average is not a concern.

6. Zimmermann having similar season to his 2013 season. Then, he was better in 2014. Ditto for Lester following his age 29 season. Z at 3.3 rWAR this season--on low end of his career norm. Projecting him at 3.0 is very pessimistic. Don't think that is warranted by these numbers if stays healthy.


CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #580 on: September 16, 2015, 02:11:34 pm »
1. Anybody any good is likely expensive. Sure, could trade for club friendly deal like Carassco but costly in traded players.

2. Zimmermann career average velocity is 93.5. 2015 is 93.0. Just not a big deal.

3. Career GB/FB ratio: 0.76. 2015: 0.75. Again, next to nothing deal. No real change.

4. Actually having a similar, if not better, season than Lester-at-age 29. You can downgrade any pitcher if you "assume" regression. That is speculation, not facts.

5. TJ history is a concern but speculative going forward. 0.5 velocity drop from career average is not a concern.

6. Zimmermann having similar season to his 2013 season. Then, he was better in 2014. Ditto for Lester following his age 29 season. Z at 3.3 rWAR this season--on low end of his career norm. Projecting him at 3.0 is very pessimistic. Don't think that is warranted by these numbers if stays healthy.



1.) At $20+ million he almost costs the same/year as Price.  Zimmerman has had 2 years above rWAR of 4, 1 of fWAR.  Price has 2 seasons below rWAR of 4 and 1 with fWAR.  Signing either one means Arreita would have to walk.
2.) It is a 0.8 decline from last year.  2009/10 TJS surgery year and recovery will afftect the average.
3.) I don't care what his career average is.  I care that he *ISN'T* a ground ball pitcher.  Fly ball pitchers who don't strike out people are bad.
4.) Lester has 2 years below 4 rWAR. 
5.) When handing out $100+ million contracts concerns matter.
6.) Zimmermann has a career rWAR average in complete seasons of 3.8, using fWAR it is 3.72.  He has been fWAR 3.4, 3.3, 3.7, 5.3, 2.9.  I think that is fair to call him a 3 WAR pitcher, who could be starting his decline.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #581 on: September 16, 2015, 03:18:50 pm »
1.) At $20+ million he almost costs the same/year as Price.  Zimmerman has had 2 years above rWAR of 4, 1 of fWAR.  Price has 2 seasons below rWAR of 4 and 1 with fWAR.  Signing either one means Arreita would have to walk.
2.) It is a 0.8 decline from last year.  2009/10 TJS surgery year and recovery will afftect the average.
3.) I don't care what his career average is.  I care that he *ISN'T* a ground ball pitcher.  Fly ball pitchers who don't strike out people are bad.
4.) Lester has 2 years below 4 rWAR. 
5.) When handing out $100+ million contracts concerns matter.
6.) Zimmermann has a career rWAR average in complete seasons of 3.8, using fWAR it is 3.72.  He has been fWAR 3.4, 3.3, 3.7, 5.3, 2.9.  I think that is fair to call him a 3 WAR pitcher, who could be starting his decline.

Want to point out one small thing at the outset for future reference. It's a small thing but want to point out in interest of accuracy.

Take point 6. Zimmerman had a partial season in 2011, not a complete season.  But, putting that aside, the rWAR average of the seasons you mention is 3.88.  Most folks would round that off to 3.9 but you average that down to 3.8.  3.88 to 3.8 rather than to 3.9?  Yes, it's a small thing but if you want to be more credible, it would be helpful to be as true to the math as possible  Just don't do that, please.  If don't want to say 3.88, fine, but don't round off to 3.8.  Small thing but why do that?

Using only full seasons, Zimmermann's rWAR average is 4.15. No, that doesn't fit into the future 3.0 WAR argument but if we're talking complete seasons, let the facts fall where they may instead of shoehorning the facts into a result that one wants.

1. As to Price/Zimmermann, have never heard the argument that Zimmermann "almost costs the same/year as Price."  If that is the case, count me out on Zimmermann. But, don't think that will be true.  Price figures to get about 50% more than Zimmermann.

2. 0.8 drop in velocity is only a factor if you assume it will continue downward.  0.8 drop is Jon Lester from 2013 to 2015. David Price had a 2.0 drop in velocity from 2012 to 2013---and was okay going forward, right?  You are making assumptions that are based on a very thin reed.  Velocity can fluctuate a bit from season to season. 0.8, standing alone, is just not that significant.

3. Don't strike out people?  His K ratio is very,very close to his career average, as I pointed out. GB/FB basically the same.  NO real change in either.  And, he's been successful at those ratios.  No stat support for your concerns.

4. No, its 3 seasons below 4.0.  2012, 2013, 2015--which happen to be 3 of last 4 seasons.  I'm fine with that.  Still like Lester.

5. Really, how many pitchers come without concerns. Even expensive ones.  A factor to take into account when making an offer, of course. But, the concerns are minimal, I think.

6. See above.

My view is that Zimmermann has pluses and a concern because of the TJ history.  So, rather than making a broad pronouncement on these facts, I'm fine with leaving it to Theo to assess his interest or non-interest. Assuming an interest, feeling around industry seems to be that Zimmermann interested in going back near his home in Midwest.  No, he is not David Price.  But, guessing could be a good fit to slide into rotation with Lester and Arrieta at the top.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #582 on: September 16, 2015, 04:21:45 pm »
How often do TORP's show up early?  Arrieta was expected to be good, then a flop, then trade bait, then we saw growth and we expected a TORP this year, as did some others.   And Trey McNutt looked so good in 2011 that Hendry wouldn't give him to Tampa Bay in the Garza deal and gave them Chris Archer instead.  How did that work out for us?

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #583 on: September 16, 2015, 04:47:54 pm »
1.) The difference between $20 million and $30 million won't affect the Cubs payroll in a meaningful way.  There isn't a difference in WAR between 3.8 and 3.9 so it doesn't really matter.  I'd consider 26 starts and 161 innings a full year, not a partial season.
2.) Pitchers lose velocity.  Once it starts it doesn't stop, usually about 1/2 mph or so a year.
3.) Zimmerman is below average in K% for NL pitchers, so he isn't a strike out pitcher.  He has a 40% GB rate, which is below average for NL pitchers.  That means more of his outs come from flyballs.  That is why it is a bad thing.  It doesn't matter that it isn't a change from the past.
4.) fWAR, which I like better, has Lester at 4.  So it is 2. by fWAR.  fWAR is more predictive of future success than rWAR.
5.) They all decline.  If you are going to spend big money on a pitcher it should only be the elite ones.  Getting 5 WAR from Price for 3 years and then decline sets you are still getting a decent pitcher until 35 for so.  Zimmerman has less distance to fall before he starts to get bad and he might already be in decline.

Say the Cubs sign Zimermann and Arreita leaves in 2017 because the Cubs don't want 3 $20+ million pitchers are you still ok with the rotation?  If it is Price and Lester I'm still ok with it.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2015, 04:55:58 pm by CUBluejays »

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #584 on: September 17, 2015, 03:12:04 am »
0.8 velocity drop for Zimmermann is bad, you say. What did you say couple years ago when Price dropped 2.0 from one season to the next?  That should tell you subject is more complex than you acknowledge.  0.8 is negligible.  You know that.

Follow this: Zimmermann career K ratio plus Zimmermann GB/FB career ratio= really good pitcher. Doing what he's doing = really good pitcher. And, 2015: virtually no change in the above career norm.

Now you say doing what he's doing is "a bad thing." Do you see the analytic tension there?  He's been doing the same thing in these metrics for years--and has been very good.  So, make no sense that what's good will be bad doing the same thing.  You say you don't care about that.  You should. It works for him.

Also, interesting you omit BB/9, which is more important than GB % and also fits better with K/9.  During above period, Zimmermann is 1.68 walks per 9 innings, which is #7 in MLB.  Curious that you ignore one of the major things that have made him a very good pitcher. 

Here's Lester compared to Zimmermann from 2011 thru 2015 using your preference, fWAR.  This is ERA, FIP, x-FIP, f-WAR:

Lester             3.58-3.45-3.51-18.6
Zimmermann   3.10-3.28-3.58-18.5

Finally, $10 per season difference between two players for 5 or more seasons is a big deal. There are numerous player X vs. player Y decisions that an organization has to make. You cannot run a club and say 50% cost differences between player X and player Y isn't significant. Tell that to Theo and see if he'll hire you to help with personnel decisions.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2015, 05:21:49 am by Reb »