Jerry Crasnick has a scoop on CY Young vote that was completed on Monday.
Sources: Greinke Finishes Ninth in Cy Young Vote
By Jerry Crasnick ESPN.com Senior Baseball Writer
Sources have informed ESPN that National League Cy Young co-favorite Zack Greinke has finished a shocking ninth in voting completed on Monday. What seems to have occurred is that Cy Young voters have entirely discounted Earned Run Average (ERA) in casting their ballots. One source told ESPN that ERA is "unworthy of consideration" because the voters concluded that it is a flawed stat. Instead of ERA, voters relied almost entirely on xFIP, SIERA, and xFIP-{minus}. Using those metrics, Greinke's 2015 season is almost identical to Chicago Cubs #4 starter Kyle Hendricks. One source told ESPN that "if Greinke is hardly better than Kyle Hendricks in 2015, the voters could not possibly award him the CY Young or take him seriously." ESPN examined these statistics and they show Greinke and Hendricks are extremely close, with Greinke leading 83-84 in xFIP- and 3.25-3.22 in xFIP, and 3.37-3.27 SIERA. ESPN is unaware of the actual winner of the Cy Young vote or the order of finish, other than as to Greinke.
Greinke received only two votes in the ballots of 30 BBWA writers, who each vote for a top 5. One of those who voted for Greinke was 102-year old beat writer Dave Pohld of the Springfield (OH) Times, who invented the term "old school" for some of his older colleagues in 1953. Pohld placed Greinke second on his ballot behind Warren Spahn. The second vote for Greinke was cast by Reb Russell of the Bradenton Post-Dispatch, who placed Greinke fourth, just ahead of Kyle Hendricks.
According to these sources, the BBWA are also seriously considering changing certain categories for 2016, including changing the MVP category to MLMVPNS (Most Likely MVP Next Season). "The advanced metrics are so much better in predicting future seasons that it may be advisable to just forget about actual performance in a given season and instead focus on future probabilities," said one source. This might also improve sample size. "Who cares about this season if we can better project NEXT season," said the source.
The National League Cy Young vote will be announced on November 10.