Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 421600 times)

guest61

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #855 on: October 06, 2015, 07:21:33 pm »
Lol

That's all Ill say.

method

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #856 on: October 06, 2015, 07:48:05 pm »
I think they would want a package around Castro and Soler especially if they cant sign Cepedes

For Harvey? wow... thats a really cheap price for a top 5 in MLB starter... If you want 3 years of harvey, some team is going to have to give up 12-18 years of cost controlled MLB talent... not market rate SS and Soler.

For harvey, it will cost Russel or Schwarber + some minor league pieces...
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 07:56:02 pm by method »

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #857 on: October 06, 2015, 08:26:58 pm »
Zero chance he brings back a Russell or Schwarber talent.  Russell was worth 3 fWAR on defense alone and he has significant offensive upside and 6 years of control. Schwarber was worth 2 fWAR in 69 games and has 6 years of control left. I wouldn't trade either one straight up for 3 years of Harvey. Sale is likely the only pitcher that has enough surplus value to get either Russell or Schwarber in a trade.

 A big if, but if the Mets viewed Castro as a 3 WAR SS then Soler and Castro isn't that far off in value for Harvey. I doubt they view Castro in that way. The only way the Mets would get that much control for Harvey is to take prospects. I doubt they want to trade him for prospects.

I think you could also make the case that Harvey is no longer the best pitcher on his team, let alone a top five pitcher in the league. This is coming from somebody that hates DeGrom according to some on this board.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #858 on: October 06, 2015, 08:32:38 pm »
Interesting that most of the ads on ESPN are self-promoting.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #859 on: October 06, 2015, 08:56:58 pm »

...I think you could also make the case that Harvey is no longer the best pitcher on his team, let alone a top five pitcher in the league. This is coming from somebody that hates DeGrom according to some on this board.

Well, deGrom way better than Zach Greinke this season in xFIP, SIERA, and xFIP- Naturally, now deGrom is awesome.

By the way, would you agree that Kyle Hendricks pretty much just as good as Greinke this season?

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #860 on: October 06, 2015, 09:39:48 pm »
Weird how DeGrom's xFIP, SIERA, FIP stayed pretty much the same to when I hated him.  I wasn't aware that I compared DeGrom to Grienke, I thought I compared DeGrom to Harvey. I guess this means I hate Harvey now too?  It's tough keeping up with what you think I'm saying. When I say Harvey isn't a top 5 pitcher that doesn't mean I think he sucks. When I say that Grienke isn't as good as Arriet and Kerahaw this year it doesn't mean I think he sucks either.

Greinke is a better pitcher than Hendricks. I think Greinke outperformed his true talent and Hendricks underperformed. So Grinke will likely have worse stats next year and Hendricks will be better when comparing to this year (If Hendricks keeps the K's). Ignoring the cost and age I would rather have Greinke pitching for the Cubs.  Because despite what you think I do look at more than just xFIP.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #861 on: October 06, 2015, 09:51:11 pm »
Nobody is talking about "true talent." That's scouting talk. And don't care about 2016 right now. That's next year.

We're talking about 2015 performance. PERFORMANCE.

So, given hardly any difference in xFIP, SIERA, and xFIP- between Hendricks and Greinke, we should conclude that Greinke and Hendricks PERFORMED about the same in 2015, right?

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #862 on: October 06, 2015, 10:01:14 pm »
Then you don't understand how I use those stats.

I answered your question though, Greinke.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #863 on: October 06, 2015, 10:06:18 pm »
Why Greinke? Explain.

Your three favorite pitcher stats show a miniscule difference between Greinke and Hendricks. How do you explain that?

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #864 on: October 06, 2015, 10:33:02 pm »
You are dense sometimes.

xFIP, SIERA are better PREDICTIVE stats. Being a better PREDICITIVE stat means looking at the FUTURE.

FIP would be a better DESCRIPTIVE stat. DESCRIPTIVE stats tell you what happened THIS year.  DRA would be another DESCRIPTIVE stat with some PREDICITIVE value. RA/9 would be a much better stat than ERA. All of these stats heavily favor Greinke.

I care more about the future when I'm talking about pitchers.  So the stats you are mentioning are better at being PREDICITVE than DESCRIPTIVE.  Hence you don't understand how I use them.

method

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #865 on: October 06, 2015, 11:13:16 pm »
Zero chance he brings back a Russell or Schwarber talent.  Russell was worth 3 fWAR on defense alone and he has significant offensive upside and 6 years of control. Schwarber was worth 2 fWAR in 69 games and has 6 years of control left. I wouldn't trade either one straight up for 3 years of Harvey. Sale is likely the only pitcher that has enough surplus value to get either Russell or Schwarber in a trade.

 A big if, but if the Mets viewed Castro as a 3 WAR SS then Soler and Castro isn't that far off in value for Harvey. I doubt they view Castro in that way. The only way the Mets would get that much control for Harvey is to take prospects. I doubt they want to trade him for prospects.

I think you could also make the case that Harvey is no longer the best pitcher on his team, let alone a top five pitcher in the league. This is coming from somebody that hates DeGrom according to some on this board.

If wishes were horses beggars would ride. i dont think you are being serious with the whole castro as a 3 war player thing there are you? over the last 2 seasons castro has been worth 3.6 war... there isnt much surplus value in that contract.

Harvey profiles to be a 6ish War pitcher for each of the next 3 years... plus a team that trades for him has a chance to sign up and lock him up for longer.

you really think something short of Russel or schawarber nets 18 war of harvey?
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 11:14:51 pm by method »

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #866 on: October 06, 2015, 11:15:45 pm »
If wishes were hores beggars would ride. i dont think you are being serious with the whole castro as a 3 war player thing there are you? over the last 2 seasons castro has been worth 3.6 war... there isnt much surplus value in that contract.

Harvey profiles to be a 6ish War pitcher for each of the next 3 years... plus a team that trades for him has a chance to sign up and lock him up for longer.

you really think something short of Russel or schawarber nets 18 war of harvey?

beggars can't afford good ****.

method

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #867 on: October 06, 2015, 11:17:03 pm »
fixed it. :)

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #868 on: October 06, 2015, 11:47:21 pm »
If wishes were horses beggars would ride. i dont think you are being serious with the whole castro as a 3 war player thing there are you? over the last 2 seasons castro has been worth 3.6 war... there isnt much surplus value in that contract.

Harvey profiles to be a 6ish War pitcher for each of the next 3 years... plus a team that trades for him has a chance to sign up and lock him up for longer.

you really think something short of Russel or schawarber nets 18 war of harvey?


1) Castro's contract is paying for about 1 1/2 WAR for the next 4 years. Plenty of surplus value in there, depending on how a ream views him. He has 3 3 fWAR seasons before age of 25. It isn't impossible he does it.

2) Harvey isn't a lock to average 6 WAR for the next 3 years. Even if he does it will be his most expensive 3 years, decreasing the value.  He could cost $32 million over that time. Schwarber/Russell may cost the same or less over 6 years.

3) Just for the sake of your point, lets grant that Harvey will produce 18 WAR. Russell with below average offense produces that for 6 years and everyone is projecting his offense to improve. Schwarber would be a roughly 5 WAR player this year over full year. Are you suggesting the Cubs should trade between 18-36 WAR over 6 years for Harvey?  No team would do it.

method

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #869 on: October 06, 2015, 11:47:57 pm »
Not sure what difference between fwar and fangrpahs war is... but fg shoW's addison as 2.9 war total for the rear in 142 games....