Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 421596 times)

Bennett

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #885 on: October 08, 2015, 08:41:20 am »
Why does everything said on this site anymore have to be backed up with undisputed evidence and stats?  I miss the old days when it was just a bunch of guys and a couple ladies talking baseball and we didnt have to have everything backed up by 3 sources.  Im going back into scroll and lurk mode I dont have time to write a thesis on a potential trade or anything else.

Oh and my post isaid I would start with Soler and Castro I never said that is all it would take good bye
Truer words were never spoken.  This place can be extremely hard to deal with at times.  What gets me the most is how so many things have to be 100% one way or the other with never an in between.

Playtwo

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #886 on: October 08, 2015, 09:04:53 am »
I agree 100%.

Ron

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #887 on: October 08, 2015, 09:07:07 am »
I'm ambivalent.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #888 on: October 08, 2015, 09:11:05 am »
Truer words were never spoken.  This place can be extremely hard to deal with at times.  What gets me the most is how so many things have to be 100% one way or the other with never an in between.
Can you back that up with xFip?

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #889 on: October 08, 2015, 09:11:33 am »
I'm ambivalent.
So you can use either hand.  Big deal.

Robb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #890 on: October 08, 2015, 11:14:26 am »
You are not alone Buff, it seems like people are trying to win a pissing contest instead of just talking baseball.  Good grief a couple of diatribes were even posted during the game tonight. I repeat DURING THE FREAKING GAME.   The Farm topic is barely readable any more.

guest61

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #891 on: October 08, 2015, 11:37:36 am »
This place has always been that way.


jacey1

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #892 on: October 08, 2015, 01:11:05 pm »
So you can use either hand.  Big deal.
THIS NEEDS TO BE IN UNDER THE BLEACHERS

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #893 on: October 08, 2015, 03:53:59 pm »
When you go looking for a decline, your looking for future performance no?  Peripherals include more than FIP/xFIP. In the second post you reference I mentioned the peripherals I was talking about and xFIP wasn't included. Just put me on ignore if I bug you that much. I'm not going to change the way I post or what I'm interested to please you.

Way too interesting and smart to put on Ignore. 

Here's a stab at bigger picture and some history--and I will put your personal preferences aside---as you wish. This will bore some of you--just scroll if you wish.

First baseball statistician that I recall was Allan Roth, who worked for Dodgers--starting in 1950s, I think. Another Branch Rickey innovation.  Vin Scully used to refer to Roth's work a lot on Dodgers broadcasts.  First heard term "on base percentage" in maybe 1959 from Scully, a stat you couldn't find anywhere until many years later.  In the mid-1960s a guy named Earnshaw Cook wrote a stats book (Percentage Baseball) that was mostly wrong about everything but I waded through that, understood maybe 10%, and a few things the guy said didn't seem right but were interesting.  Then, came Bill James in late 1970s with his Abstracts, the first few of which were typed and mimeographed and mailed to folks who responded to an ad in the Sporting News, Pete Palmer (Hidden Game of Baseball), Craig Wright (Diamond Appaised) and then a bevy of non-stop sabermetric work, some great, some interesting, and some nonsense.

At some point, folks started wondering about the luck factor in baseball--the McCracken study. But, the roots of that go back to much of the previous work above, seeking to find objective measurements. What to do with luck/random chance, something we all know is inherent in baseball and sometimes breaks our hearts.  Last night, the hard DP grounder by Marte was a crucial DP turned by Russell/Castro but could easily have been a two-run single that changed the whole complexion of game. A few feet hit to the left or to the right--all the shutout stats talked about today about Arrieta--- out the window.  Maybe Cubs still win--who knows.  Luck mostly, I think, on that batted ball. Good work by the defense but that depended on location of the batted ball. Of course, this happens everyday during the season.

xFIP, FIP, xFIP- and a bunch of other modern stats, that's what they do: take out the reality of what happened--the luck/random chance factor--and look at what pitcher "can control" aside from what actually happens to balls put in play. They are not simply predictive. They purport to tell us how well the pitcher performed, not just in the future. You can use that stuff whatever way you want, but it is designed to measure performance. Predictive accuracy is the cherry--look at us and these stats--we can better predict the future.  That is fine, but a corollary to what the stat actually purports to measure.

ERA has the sin of actually taking into account that the Arrieta pitch turned into a DP-- rather than a two-RBI ground single that kept the inning going. Yes, ERA has shortcomings but there is a reason smart baseball "insiders" and fans constantly talk about ERA. Few of these folks are knuckleheads.  Not sure I can say the same for those other folks who discount ERA and find it unworthy of consideration, not including our esteemed fellow poster--who is not a knucklehead (mostly). 

Taking out the luck/random chance element and measuring what is left---a noble effort.  Useful. Glad folks do that. We all should look at those stats.  But, ERA is important.  We care that the Marte grounder turned into a DP and assessing any player or players statistically should too. Put another way, no earned runs for Arrieta yesterday, thankfully. Go Cubs. NOT unworthy of consideration. 


Dave23

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #894 on: October 08, 2015, 04:03:52 pm »
Robinson Chirinos takes Price deep, and it's 4-1 Texas in the 5th...

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #895 on: October 08, 2015, 04:19:06 pm »
Blue Jays losing 4-2 in a game started by Price, and Donaldson was just pulled from the game for a pinch hitter.  The playoffs haven't started the way the Blue Jays envisioned.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #896 on: October 08, 2015, 04:19:54 pm »
Donaldson pulled?  Is he hurt?

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #897 on: October 08, 2015, 04:23:57 pm »
Donaldson pulled?  Is he hurt?

He took a knee to the head. Maybe concussed. Not good.

AndyMacFAIL

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #898 on: October 08, 2015, 05:00:27 pm »

JBN

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #899 on: October 08, 2015, 05:18:54 pm »
Blue Jays have lost José Bautista as well. He left the top of the 9th with an injury they did not say what though.