Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 421136 times)

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1125 on: October 15, 2015, 10:44:00 pm »
Don't forget that the Cubs are a "different team" too.  The last time the Cubs beat the Mets (to go 7-0 on the season), the Cubs were 42-35.  At that point, they were .500 against teams other than the Mets.  The Cubs finished 25 games over .500 against teams other than the Mets. 

Cubs win this series in 5, maybe 6.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1126 on: October 15, 2015, 10:45:04 pm »
What has to worry you about this series is that 3/4 of the pitching matchups undeniably favor the Mets.  Harvey and Matz are certainly gettable and Syndergard and DeGrom aren't Kershaw and Greinke, but apart from whoever faces Arretta (I'm guessing it will be Syndergard) all of the Mets starters are better on paper than the Cub SP opposing them.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1127 on: October 15, 2015, 10:52:35 pm »
Pretty sure you could have said the same thing about the Giants starters last year.

Harvey is on a pitch limit and may only pitch one time.  Syndergaard and deGrom can rack up pitch counts and exit games early. Matz has talent, but he has little experience so he might buckle under pressure. The Mets are a good team, but when you get to this point you are going to face a good team. 

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1128 on: October 15, 2015, 10:53:11 pm »
deGrom seemed to lose a little in September and the Dodgers certainly could've done more against him tonight.  Harvey wanted to be shut down a couple weeks ago. Matz isn't really proven--he's somewhat of a wild card with an injury history.  And Syndergaard is a 23 year old who is 50 innings past his previous season high. 

I saw the "Mets starters are better than anyone but Arrieta" tweets earlier tonight.  But I think that's silly.  I take Lester over any of their starters.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1129 on: October 15, 2015, 10:57:23 pm »
I think it's silly to take 2015 Lester over any of DeGrom, Syndergard or Harvey.  But that's as may be.  I'd certainly take those three over or Hammel or Hendrcks or Haren.

I think the best hope for the Cubs is that Harvey is simply gassed, and one or more of the other three kids crumbles under pressure.  I see this as a 50-50 series, really - it's true, you can't get to the NLCS and not expect to face a good team.  It's choose your poison.

If nothing else, this represents a fascinating clash of two different developmental strategies.  And proof that they can both work.

brjones

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1130 on: October 15, 2015, 11:01:22 pm »
Fangraphs has the Cubs at 56.3% to win the NLCS and 30.4% to win the World Series.  Just FWIW.  They're the favorite to go all the way at this point according to Fangraphs.

Chris27

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1131 on: October 15, 2015, 11:02:25 pm »
I agree the Cubs are different. Both teams are much better. Not all that comfortable with Baez rather than Russell however. Maybe he'll "run into" another FB or three.

Chris27

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1132 on: October 15, 2015, 11:06:19 pm »
deGrom seemed to lose a little in September

deGrom's performance in G1 against LA was one of the most dominant is postseason history. His stuff is possibly better than Arrieta's. Fortunately, he doesn't pitch prior to G3 and then maybe only G6 on short rest.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1133 on: October 15, 2015, 11:30:59 pm »
Baez is the least of my concerns - I'm not so certain this isn't an upgrade on the whole, though it does deplete the bench.  One thing is that those Mets pitchers are serious flamethrowers, and there aren't a lot of guys that can turn around a fastball like Baez.

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1134 on: October 16, 2015, 12:06:36 am »
Arrieta's game score against the Pirates was 88, DeGrom's in game 1 was 79.

Baez and fastball's is a good point. I like Baez a lot, but I think it is a defensive downgrade from Russell to Baez.

Deeg

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1135 on: October 16, 2015, 12:46:34 am »
 I agree it is a defensive downgrade, based on the greater chance that Baez will boot an easy play.  But I also think it could be a major offensive upgrade, and in fact Baez is capable of making plays at SS that Russell can't.

guest61

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1136 on: October 16, 2015, 01:29:58 am »
I wanted no part of LA.

This is a series we can win.

Chris27

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1137 on: October 16, 2015, 01:56:46 am »
Arrieta's game score against the Pirates was 88, DeGrom's in game 1 was 79.

That's due to innings, nothing more. DeGrom's pitch count from K'ing 13 in 7 innings prevented him from pitching further.

OkieCubsFan

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1138 on: October 16, 2015, 06:56:50 am »
That's due to innings, nothing more. DeGrom's pitch count from K'ing 13 in 7 innings prevented him from pitching further.

You can't just discount the innings though. Otherwise Justin Grimm had the most dominant outing in postseason history on Tuesday (it's a tie).

Chris27

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1139 on: October 16, 2015, 07:19:34 am »
I'd call that a stretch but that would be insulting to stretches everywhere.