Author Topic: Around Baseball  (Read 425240 times)

craig

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1260 on: November 02, 2015, 09:16:59 am »
Ditto.  All kinds of ways to end up scoring more runs than the other team.  And certainly incremental improvements in any aspect of the complex game can help. 

One question is whether the HR-oriented approach is particularly ill-suited to playoff baseball?  Do home runs come mostly on mistakes and off bad pitchers, and are they a tool better suited to regular-season long-haul than the short-series baseball against high-end teams? 

I don't actually think so.  I almost think that the better the opposing pitching, the more progressively difficult it becomes to sequence multiple hits in one inning.  (Particularly in National League series with no DH).  Playoff pitchers don't usually allow lots of hits.  With all of the off days and large amounts to rest, managers can often get by using only their favorite several relievers. 

So bunching hits is perhaps harder than ever.  Perhaps the periodic "blink" HR is as or more accessible?  Even the best pitchers still makes some mistakes, if you can punish them, and sometimes even even excellent pitches can be driven out.  I think we basically beat Cain that way in the dramatic Pirates tie-breaker.  So I don't really think the high value for HR-power is at all inappropriate for playoff success.  But it would be nice to be able to score in multiple ways; in the Cardinal series some walks and suicide squeeze plays did that, for example. 

Ron

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1261 on: November 02, 2015, 09:21:48 am »
You can argue about whether he's going to justify what he's going to be paid going forward, but the Cueto of the last two seasons is certainly a TORP.

I think the WS is interesting in that it shows that there are many ways to succeed in baseball.  The Mets got there behind tremendous power SP.  The Royals built a team of scrappers who win with defense, baserunning, being tough outs and with a terrific bullpen.  The Cubs got as far as they did mostly behind straight-out bombers and the 3-run HR - Earl Weaver would have been proud.

I think the point here is that there's not only 1 way to get ahead in baseball, and K.C. and N.Y.'s success doesn't mean we have to copy them to win it all.  But the Cubs can try to become a little more like them without scrapping the whole shebang and changing their identity.

Yes. All of the above.

CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1262 on: November 02, 2015, 09:24:17 am »
This October really was a tale of the hot team.  Cubs were hot coming in, then the Mets got hot and cooled in the finals, Houston and Toronto were hot coming in, cooled, Kansas City was just Kansas City.  Just steady.

Good Series.  At least the colors were right. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1263 on: November 02, 2015, 09:49:49 am »
One question is whether the HR-oriented approach is particularly ill-suited to playoff baseball?  Do home runs come mostly on mistakes and off bad pitchers, and are they a tool better suited to regular-season long-haul than the short-series baseball against high-end teams? 

I don't think there is one way to win a playoff baseball games.  The best way is to be the hot team at that moment and have the breaks go your way.  I believe the Royals scored something like 40 runs after the 8th inning in this playoff period.  The next closest was 5. 

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN  3h3 hours ago
Of all the crazy Royals' numbers, this might be the best: KC scored 40 runs this postseason 8th inning/later, no other team had more than 5

To put it another way, the Blue Jays tied for second in BB% with Cubs, had the 5th lowest K% and the highest ISO and highest wRC+ (117.  Giants were second at 107) and they still lost to the Royals.  The Braves with 3 HOF pitchers in their starting rotation one 1 World Series.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 10:09:13 am by CUBluejays »


Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1265 on: November 02, 2015, 12:47:40 pm »
Fangraphs projections had Royals at 79-83 going into the season. Not too hot a projection.

Ron

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CurtOne

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1267 on: November 02, 2015, 01:52:45 pm »
Vegas has already installed the Dodgers instaled as 8 to 1 favorites for next year.  Cubs are 10 to 1 with 3 or 4 other teams.  Kansas City already disrespected at 18 to 1.

Dihard

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1268 on: November 02, 2015, 02:38:12 pm »
Would you have rather ended the season the way the Cubs did (getting swept, looking generally overmatched in the series, never leading in a single game), or the way the Blue Jays or Mets did - having leads in most games, winning a game or two, having your closer on the mound during 3 eventual losses, making big mistakes on defense, etc..

I don't like the Mets, so it didn't bother me a bit to see them blow leads, play tight, and lose the way they did.  But that had to pretty painful, for fans and players alike.  As a franchise with perhaps a still somewhat fragile psyche, I think the quick 'n' ugly sweep (after winning the Pirates game and Cards series) was actually an ok way to bow out.  Motivating, but hopefully not damaging.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1269 on: November 02, 2015, 02:42:37 pm »
Mets got to the World Series. Uh, think Cubs getting to World Series in 2015 would have been sweet.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1270 on: November 02, 2015, 02:50:24 pm »
Used to be that winning the pennant was, by itself, a really big deal. Now, it's just kind of a step in advancing to the final round. Like winning the NFC or whatever.

I'm thinking of Russ Hodges and THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT!-THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT! Kind of outshone the World Series that year, in a way.

For me-- still--winning the pennant would be a really big deal--and then work from there.

Dihard

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1271 on: November 02, 2015, 02:50:42 pm »
Well, yeah, there is that.  :)  I was just looking at the manner they exited, not the round.  Obviously, especially in the Cubs' case, getting to the WS and losing in any fashion > any exit prior to that.

Reb

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1272 on: November 02, 2015, 03:03:52 pm »
Yeah, guessing I will think of this season similar to 1989 when didn't get all that close to beating Giants in NLCS---and not so much like the agony of 1984 and 2003 outcomes.

For me, 1984 was the worst---even more than 2003. Cubs were best team in NL hands down in 1984.

Other season was 1970---year after the 1969 debacle. NL was there for the taking in 1970 and that club should have won division and moved on. Probably residue of 1969 and Leo had lost the clubhouse by then. A horrible, missed opportunity.

JR

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1273 on: November 02, 2015, 03:09:35 pm »
Quote
---even more than 2003.

I'll say one thing about 2003 . . . the Cubs were playing better than anyone in the league up until 5 outs to go in Game 6.  The lineup had great balance to it, and the pitching was deep and strong with Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Clement, etc. 

That team was terrific from September onward.  Just too bad they couldn't finish off the Marlins in Game 6. 

Ron

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #1274 on: November 02, 2015, 03:16:47 pm »
Agree that the worst post-season loss for me was 1984.  The Cubs were expected to go to the World Series and should have.  Very painful.