Bleacher Bums Forum

Why wouldnt they deserve a competive balance pick?

They didn't get a competitive balance pick this year.

Yeah, and 2018 going forward would cover the bulk of any multi-year deal with Price. (Plus, Cards current deal escalates in 2016 and 2017).

Meanwhile, any Cubs mega-deal might have to wait to 2020---5th year of a Price contract.

1. Cards have had higher payroll than Cubs for past 4 seasons. They are pretty consistently in top 10 payrolls.

2. Cards have a bigger ballpark. Drew more than 3.5 million each of last 2 seasons. Cubs all-time high is 3.3, with limited luxury suites.

3. Nobody really knows what the cable/games rights market will be after 2019, when Cubs have new deal. Uncertainty means more difficult to make long-term commitments now. Cards have more cost certainty because their deal is now in place. So, they can better know how Price fits going forward.

4. Cubs have debt ratio benchmarks that limit what they can spend on payroll. Cards don't have that issue.

So, Cards have some advantages. That will change for 2020 season but there are four seasons to play until then.

....The Cards had a $122 million payroll in 2015. They currently have $101.725 million committed, plus $27 million in arb raises that they could decrease to $9.2 million by non tendering Moss, Cishek, Bourjos and Cruz. To sign Price they would have to raise the payroll to around $150 and fill the rest of the roster with major league minimums.

1. If Cards sign Price, they will certainly trade J. Garcia.  That's a $11.5 savings.  Leaves them with rotation of Price-Wainwright-Martinez-Wacha-Lynn.  Pretty nice.

2. So, with likely arb guys tendered, that's just under $100 committed (99.4). 

3. Have ton of key non-arb guys: Wacha, Grichik, Siegrist, Wong, C. Martinez, Piscotty.  Plus, G. Garcia, Pham, Lyons, Harris, M. Gonzales, Cooney. That's another $8 or so, total for 12 guys.

That's 24 players at $108 or so.  So, they could add Price and be well under $150 for 2016.

4. By 2017 season, their commitments go down to $65.5 and down again to $33.25 in 2017. So, thinking long-range, they will have to decide how much they can spend in 2016 with their roster mix beyond 2016. Don't have debt ratio issues like Cubs do, so can pay more now if they wish. 

There arent tons of Cards fans in Tennessee.

There are quite a few Reds fans here but make no mistake that I live right in the heart of Braves country.

I would think the Cubs would place 3rd above the Cards.

Isn't western Tennessee, especially around Memphis littered with Card fans?

When you consider Western Tennessee I'd bet the Cards take 3rd from the Cubs.

The Cards have a wide base, but what is population like? 

$138 million with very little veteran depth. 2017 is up to $100 million with Martinez, Wacha, Seigrist and Wong entering the arbitration. They would have 2 years oh a much higher payroll without the extra TV money to cover it.

The Cards attendance is maxed out. The Cubs have an additional 400,000 ($17.66 million at the average ticket price) they can add plus the suites are coming as well. The average Cubs ticket for cheap seats is $44.16.  Cardinals is $33.84.  Cubs premium tickets are $110.49 vs $80.65. Just taking the average ticket price the Cubs would bring in more revenue at 2.9 million fans vs the Cards at 3.4 million.   The Cubs have a lot more ways to increase revenue, including raising ticket prices and sticking an ad on everything they can.