Good points. Still, the guy was a really effective pitcher this past year, in relief. Getting a really good reliever for $9/year is good value. If he translates some of what made him so good in relief into rotation, he could be a pretty good starter. The price for a good, safe starter is way higher. Cubs figured Lackey good value at $16/year; if you want somebody who's both durable/safe AND good, $9/year doesn't do that. So seems like the risk/reward in Minor's case is pretty reasonably balanced, and pretty club-reasonable.
We'll see what the Cubs come up with.