Author Topic: Cubs Draft 2020  (Read 5709 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #150 on: June 17, 2020, 01:08:45 pm »


Kantro:  "he’s never going to be a guy that’s painting corners."  Might-be-a-Maples will remain an open question for a while, I think. 

He might be the Maples we hoped for, just enough control to get by with nasty stuff.  I'm still not convinced that taking a reliever in the second round is a good value, but I'm not paid to make those choices.  I think to get value out of that pick he is going to have to be an elite closer, even just a Strop level reliever might be wasted value.


Still, changing a swing isn't easy, I don't think.  Making tweaks is one thing, serious revision of a swing may be harder. 

I also think "oh, only 18% K-rate, K's aren't a problem" may be too optimistic.  18% isn't exactly small, and the NL is NOT the Big Ten.  A guy who K'd 18% against college pitching might K like Brett Jackson in the pros.  Plus if he's got specific holes in his swing, big-league scouting might identify those holes in a way that college scouting doesn't. 

Cubs reportedly changed Hoerner, Davis and Roderer's swings after they drafted them and that was before integrating Stone.  Nwogo has had 3 different swings and stances at Michigan, so he takes to coaching and has hit well.  He might bust, but in the third round that seems like a good value. 


craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #151 on: June 17, 2020, 02:10:00 pm »
I agree on Nwogu, the risk is certainly real; but for a 3rd rounder, the potential payoff seems like a good value, and justifies the risk.   

None of the reports have been favorable about his defense.  Consensus bad arm, and general sense that his routes and jumps and instincts are variably poor. 

Makes me wonder about DH?  DH was discussed to be included if they do hypothetically have a Covid season this year.  I wonder if in the next CBA, before Nwogu comes up, if there's any chance of finally getting the DH for good?  Probably not (with all of the heavy fighting to be done over money, I'm not sure they'll choose to spend any time discussing something like DH).  But *if* DH comes, that could make Nwogu more valuable to us.  If Schwarber was to extend, there'd not be room for two starting bad-fielding left fielders.  But if Nwogu could hit enough so that you'd want him in the lineup, being able to DH would be nice, or being able to move Schwarber to DH if Nwogu ends up becoming the better defensive LF. 

Blue, I don't really agree with the non-closer-reliever-is-wasted-value.  If he's just a mediocre wildman reliever, yes.  But if you've got a really high-end quality setup reliever, I think the value could be good.  Even more so if he's a guy who will go two innings sometimes.  Strop would typically appear in 60 or more games.  Josh Hader is obviously a unicorn, but he's thrown around 80 innings per season the last two years, with 15-20 more innings than appearances, so lots of 2-inning outings.  Seems to me that if you had a high-quality 60-80 inning guy in relief, I'd consider that to be excellent value for a 2nd-round selection. 

davep

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #152 on: June 17, 2020, 03:16:18 pm »
I think most teams would be quite happy to get Josh Hader in the second round of the draft.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #153 on: June 17, 2020, 03:46:38 pm »
Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.

Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.

The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting up for Randy Myers.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #154 on: June 17, 2020, 04:17:02 pm »
Even a setup reliever, if dominant, can be extremely valuable.

Les Lancaster was a 4 bWAR guy in 1989, as an example.

The next year, 1990, Rob Dibble was a 4 bWAR reliever setting up for Randy Myers.

Yup, fun examples, great memories!  I think the "if dominant" is kind of a limiter, though?  Being very good is one thing; being Hader, Dibble or 1989-Lancaster is kind of remote. 

The other limiter with all three of Hader, Dibble, and 89-Lancaster is the usage.  All three of those are multi-inning guys. 
Dibble had 98 innings (98IP/68G):  that's 30 "extra" innings.
Lancaster:  73IP/42G, 31 "extra" innings.
Hader:  ~80 innings, ~15-20 "extra" innings per year. 

The vast majority of relievers in today's usage are single-inning guys.  Relievers who are routinely pitching "extra" innings and accruing 80 or more innings are very unusual. 

*If* Burl ends up being so special that he's both dominant in the innings he gets; AND is so rubber-armed that his manager is going to throw him for ≥80 innings and ≥15 "extra" inning outings per year, that will be a VERY unusual and VERY special weapon. 

I'm an optimistic Cubs fan, for sure, and I hope Burl ends up being phenomenal.  But I think it's pretty unlikely that he'll be THAT special, or that the Cubs will have a manager who is unusual enough to be using him for lots of "extra" inning outings.  It sure wouldn't be Maddon doing that, that's for sure. 

Heh heh, I think Blue's original point was that unless he's so great that he becomes a closer, that being a good setup reliever isn't going to be great value.  Lancaster's year was obviously a fluke.  And setups phenomenal enough to be Hader and Dibble, they pretty much satisfied Blue's greatness critereon, and quickly enough become closers. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #155 on: June 17, 2020, 04:23:10 pm »
I should have said an elite reliever. Hader is elite weather he closes or he doesn’t.

Strop was a good reliever for the Cubs. He was a throw in for Feldman. The Cubs have found multiple good relievers at basically no cost.

9 relievers where worth 2 fWAR in 2019, 50 starters reached that level.

Bennett

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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #157 on: June 19, 2020, 03:28:45 pm »
Fangraphs redone prospect ranks
Howard #5  (45+)
Carraway #11 (40+)
Little #38 (35+)
Ngwo #40 (35+)
Moreno #43 (35+)

The number in there parenthesis is FV. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #158 on: June 21, 2020, 03:14:35 pm »
Mooney is replying Howard will sign for slot.

Callis has the Cubs with 2/15 top UDFA signings.


chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #160 on: June 22, 2020, 07:23:35 am »
Mooney is replying Howard will sign for slot.

Callis has the Cubs with 2/15 top UDFA signings.

BA has Bradlee Beesley at #13 and Scott McKeon at #15. Those were their only Cubs in the top 20.  The Phillies have 5 of the Top 20.

Chicago Cubs

Bradlee Beesley, OF, Cal Poly | Scouting report (No. 429 on the BA 500) | No. 6 on top undrafted seniors list
Scott McKeon, INF, Coastal Carolina | Link | Scouting report (No. 438 on BA 500) | No. 10 on top undrafted seniors list
Scott Kobos, LHP, Coastal Carolina | Link
Graham Lawson, RHP, South Carolina | Link
Ben Leeper, RHP, Oklahoma State | Link
Bailey Reid, RHP, Westmont (Calif.) | Link
Jacob Wetzel, OF, Frederick (Md.) JC | Link
Matt Mervis, 1B/RHP, Duke | Link | No. 17 on top undrafted seniors list
Sam Thoresen, RHP, Minnesota
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 12:25:15 pm by chgojhawk »

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #161 on: June 22, 2020, 07:43:57 am »
jhawk, that list includes one JC guy, Wetzel.  I'm interested, because a 19-year old, who knows what unseen, untapped potential he might hypothetically have. 

That list does NOT include the 17-year-old Puerto Rican pitcher, who had already reportedly touched 94.  I wonder if he just didn't get included for some random reason, or if something happened to squelch his signing?  Being young and having at least some decent velocity to start with, his youth also made him more interesting to me, as possible big-league prospect. 

I assume most of the senior signs are more organizational guys, probably without actual big-league potential.

Ron

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craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #163 on: June 24, 2020, 12:22:37 pm »
Howard sounds like a class young man.  Best wishes to him and his career.  Sounds like a personality and worker who is likely to get the most out of his ability.  Hopefully he's got tons of talent ready to be untapped.  With the bat a well as defense. 

Dave23

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #164 on: June 24, 2020, 02:55:47 pm »
The video I've seen, he looks smooth as silk already in the field...