Author Topic: Cubs Draft 2020  (Read 5855 times)

Deeg

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #75 on: June 11, 2020, 09:35:49 pm »
Koen Moreno, prep RHP in the 5th round.  Not a super well-known kid but this is a nice gamble in the 5th round.  I see a nice combo of stuff and intangibles here, considerable upside.  Gonna be a tough sign though.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #76 on: June 11, 2020, 09:37:37 pm »
Cubs finally picked a guy that might actually be able to be a starting pitcher.

To me this draft is just a typical Cubs draft. The did great in the first round and then after that it was kinda like I guess.

The need starting pitching and it is the strength of the draft and they don’t take anybody until the 5th round. He a 3 sport high schooler so hopefully there is untapped potential there. The got 2 hard throwing lefties with control issues that profile as relievers and a LF that mashes the ball.

The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When Epstein contract is up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership.

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #77 on: June 11, 2020, 09:46:36 pm »
Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.

But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average” slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary stuff.”

Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.

We already waste a 1st rounder on Little a couple years ago?  Why did we re-draft him?

Deeg

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #78 on: June 11, 2020, 09:48:23 pm »



The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.  When Epstein contract is up I hope they go after the D-Backs leadership. [


I think it's tough to say the Cubs have done well doing that when those guys have collectively played 0 innings for them.  And three of them 0 innings period.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 09:51:24 pm by Deeg »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #79 on: June 11, 2020, 10:04:13 pm »
Cease was used in a trade and was a top 100 prospect.
Davis is a top 100 prospect.
Steele has the same reliever potential was guys we spent 2 and 4th round picks on today, we with the added bonus of he could actually start.
Roederer was talent.

It beats the likes of Dewees, Stinnent, Zastrynzy, etc... that they usually break out in the second round.


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #80 on: June 11, 2020, 10:13:30 pm »
Little is a raw 19 year old with poor control and Burl is the top pure reliever in the draft (and perhaps close to the majors), so not surprising that the latter drafted higher.

But, the point is a report that Little has a “above-average” slider with bite—-that contradicts notion of “no secondary stuff.”

Maybe you saw Little pitch on a day that BA is unaware of.

Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.   I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his control passable.

So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to majors.  The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.

Ron

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #81 on: June 11, 2020, 11:00:20 pm »

Dave23

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #82 on: June 11, 2020, 11:02:07 pm »
Nationals took former Cubs draftee Mitchell Parker in the 5th round.

He had 2 scary great seasons at San Jac...

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #83 on: June 11, 2020, 11:23:10 pm »
Fangrapghs, Law, McDaniel and MLB pipeline all disagree with BA’s description of an above average slider, but I forgot only BA matters to you. That doesn’t really matter though, because the Cubs have done well with tweaking breaking balls recently.   I’m more worried about syncing up his devlivery to make his control passable.

So what if Burl is the best college reliever and closest to majors.  The last 2 years there have been 3 college relievers that have had 10 saves in a major league season. Being the best college reliever doesn’t guarantee success. He still has a violent delivery with control issues that won’t go away.

You said Little has “no secondary stuff.”

Just admit that’s an exaggeration. You don’t like drafting relievers, fine, but I have yet to see you quote any analyst who said he has no secondary stuff.

Fangraphs said slider “flashes above,” BA says slider “above average,” and Pipeline says secondaries “have made progress” and need more work.

Can’t find anything by Law and McDaniel weighing in on his secondaries, so please link that as you read something from them and you wouldn’t just make up something I’m sure.

Obviously, the guy is a work in progress. What 19 year-old pitcher isn’t?

Cubs went for upside in this draft. I like that. Most of the Cubs pitch draft misfires of recent years have been pitchability  guys without big velocity and/or secondary stuff emphasis. Cubs could have taken a pitcher-approved-by-you in first round, but opted for position player with upside that even you approve. So, after that, just take the prospect the evaluators like the most, irrespective of position—-seems to me.

Maybe Cubs will still sign some $20,000 SPs that you can approve. Could be a few interesting pitchers out there after a 5-round draft.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #84 on: June 11, 2020, 11:43:33 pm »
...To me this draft is just a typical Cubs draft. The did great in the first round and then after that it was kinda like I guess.

The need starting pitching and it is the strength of the draft and they don’t take anybody until the 5th round. ...

The Cubs have done well under Espstein after the first when the go after high school kids with potential, Cease, Steele, Davis, and  Roederer. The Cubs have done that so rarely though and it is just frustrating to see the same thing over and over ...

It's a new scouting boss, and a restructured development system.  I'm just going to hope that their analysis can see untapped potential, and can recognize correctible mechanical issues; and that they have the development process to bring the best out of some highly imperfect prospects who have some loud tools. 
*Burl and Little are big-time wild; but both are big-time fast.  Let's see if the development can get more out of them than in past from Steele or Hudson or Blackburn or Zastrysny or Stinnett or Carson Sands. 
*Moreno is a nice projectable prospect, but barely got over 90 last year.  Let's see if maturation and development turns him into a solid competitive fastball to go with other qualities; or if he's always velocity-short.

Absolutely true that once again, they didn't even try with rotation pitching.  They haven't spent on international pitchers for years, they didn't try this draft, they didn't in the Hoerner draft, and if you believe Jensen and McAvene last year are relievers not starters, then they didn't try last draft either. 

I kind of figure that if you hit on a 4th or 2nd rounder and Little or Lang end up being quality power-lefty relievers in the majors, though, I'm not going to complain "what bad picks, we should have gotten good rotation starters, but all we got from 2nd and 4th round were two excellent relievers".  But yeah, sooner or later SOMEBODY needs to start. 

Blackburn, Underwood, McNeil, and Prietto in the first 5 rounds.  Sands, Steele, Cease, all million-dollar guys.  Bryan Hudson, Darryl Wilson, million-dolllar guys or close, right?  Estrada got a million, and Velasquez was high-ceililng.  Davis and Kohl look good, plus Roederer was that year.  So they've taken some HS upside guys and signed a number of millionish guys.  They just haven't worked that well prior to Davis and maybe Kohl. 

Not sure it's philosophy, I think it's probably just case-by-case scouting and developing.  Derek Johnson just loved Stinnett.  Oops.  McLeod and somebody really loves Zastryzny, and they loved Carson Sands.  Oh well. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #85 on: June 11, 2020, 11:58:22 pm »
BA Carlos Collazo favorite picks of day 2:

RHP Koen Moreno, Cubs (147): If Moreno had more of a chance to pitch this spring, I think it’s likely the Cubs wouldn’t have had a shot to take him at No. 147. Every time Moreno pitches, it seems like he takes a step forward, as was the case for him the entirety of last summer. He oozes athleticism, is an exceptionally gifted mover over the rubber, has a lean and projectable frame and we haven’t even talked about his stuff yet. His fastball has ranged from 87-93 for the most part, but that velocity has steadily climbed and he should be throwing an above-average fastball soon. Pair that with advanced feel for an 81-85 mph changeup that has swing-and-miss qualities and terrific natural ability to spin a breaking ball, and he has all the traits you’re looking for.

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #86 on: June 12, 2020, 12:25:57 am »
Regarding Cubs signing international pitchers, Cubs signed what some considered the top international pitcher in the 2018 signing period, Richard Gallardo. 

Longenhagen says he has peaked already, so looks like that hasn't panned out.  Cubs were also hurt by two consecutive years recently when they were prohibited from signing anybody for over $300,000 (except from Mexico, with clubs getting most of the bonus).  In any case, it's a very poor record, obviously.




Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #87 on: June 12, 2020, 12:36:16 am »
Cubs have drafted tons of pitching in recent drafts.  Just unsuccessfully.  To say the least.

2019- rounds 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9.

2018- rounds 2, 4, 6

2017- 7 of the first 8 picks were pitchers

2016- 13 of first 14 picks were pitchers (!)

2015- rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Seems like beginning in 2019, Cubs more interested in velocity than in years past.  Well, something wasn't working right. 

Really hurt that the two first round pitchers in 2017 were stiffs.  Both guys were secondary pitch oriented guys. Some analysts said these guys had the two best curves in the draft. Don't think that I want more college pitchers like that.

And, really hard to identify HS pitchers in the high rounds. 

In any case, Cubs have done a bad job drafting pitchers, which is the most obvious thing anybody can say about the Cubs.

But, can see why they are trying to take a different approach with the kind of pitchers they're drafting lately.


Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #88 on: June 12, 2020, 12:44:53 am »
I get it that folks don't get excited about drafting reliever-types. 

And, the analysts that we read always downgrade pitching prospects who project as relievers.  Get that.  They throw a lot fewer innings than starters.  They rack up fewer WAR totals. 

But, if your bullpen sucks, you are going to go crazy.  Nats didn't start to move up last year until the bullpen got a lot better.  There are more relievers in every pen than ever before.  The high velocity guys are relievers, as a group.  Bullpens are pitching more and more innings in the aggregate than ever before.

So, I'm not averse to developing power relievers, if that's part of the Cubs new pitching plan. 

Yes, it's a significant problem if you're not drafting and developing SPs.  Just draft and develop better pitchers.  Draft talent, no matter the role. And, develop it.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #89 on: June 12, 2020, 12:48:02 am »
I like Howard and Moreno, less thrilled with the ones in-between.  We'll see.