....A lot of the guys you mentioned like Blackburn, Hudson, Prieto, etc... didn’t have a high ceiling....
You may be right. But I wonder if that isn't partly hindsight?
*Hudson was a long, young guy, reported as already low-90's, viewed as being super projectible. Randy-Johnson upside comments at the time. Get all of his levers coordinated and optimized and he's got high-90's projection with a deadly curve. Except with all of that length and projection, he never added one mph to his velocity, and if anything lost some in the pros. Brailyn has added 10-15 mph; Hudson lost a couple. Maybe good scouting would have realized in advance; and maybe good development would have helped him find an extra 6 mph, I don't know. But I think the ceiling was at least perceived to be there, at first.
*Steele, had good upside. and has added some velocity. Had all the athleticism that gave him the high-ceiling to become coordinated and pitch with control; none of that ceiling was realized. Wildman, big-league stuff but no location.
*Estrada, as HS junior throwing mid-90's, 1st-round projection, plenty high ceiling. Well then he regressed as a senior in every way, but the high ceiling was still assumed to be in there. But so far, nothing.
*Little, supposedly super high-ceiling curve, and was reported to be throwing mid-90's, with projection to add more; he was projected as a plenty high-ceiling guy. Again, that projection didn't happen, instead the real guy was a handful of mph slower, and rather than sustain velocity and get faster, his velocity is much less than the scouting reports reported.
*Blackburn: Slender, projectible guy, had supposedly added 5 mph and was throwing 93-94 in spring, with projection for more, to go with command and curveball. Seemingly plenty of ceiling... Until the real guy ended up throwing 88-90 instead of 93-94, and never added anything.
*Underwood, already said to be throwing 99 in high school. I think there was perceived to be plenty of ceiling. Obviously not as fast as a pro, and never gained consistency or command.
*Trevor Clifton, another guy with big-ceiling reports, high 90's in HS.
You may be right, maybe they never had ceiling. But it seems to me this is perhaps either a hindsight thing? You get some projectible guys, and some explode, some it never happens. Roger Clemens added 10-15 mph after his draft summer. Angel Guzman, Carlos Zambrano, Juan Cruz, those guys added tons of velocity after their early pro years. Brailyn, high 80's has touched 93, now he touches 100. We've had no shortage of high-80's touches 93-94, but few have gone Brailyn.
Not sure how much of that is: 1) luck . 2) scouting and projection, and 3) development? Maybe if Blackburn and Hudson had been in driveline, analytics would have figured things out and they'd have added 5 mph? But the Cubs just didn't have the analytics or development system to help them? Or the good teachers who could persuade them to make the needed adjustments and the ability to explain exactly what needed to be done and how? Or maybe it was largely the scouting? Maybe smarter scouting can say "he's 90-93 now, and his breaking ball is erratic; but look at XYZ in his delivery. If he strengthens these muscles, does this kind of throwing to strengthen his arm, adjusts his arm slot in such a way, adjusts his stride and weight-transfer in ways XYZ, and if we can get him in pitch lab quantifying each throw so he can get locked into doing it right, he's got an extra 6 mph waiting to be untapped, and with better control, and much better spin on pitches X and Y? And maybe smarter scouting can look at Blackburn and say, "guys, I know he's young, but his delivery is already as efficient as it can get. There's nothing more to get out of it. Hudson may be tall, but there aren't another 7 mph untapped; there's no Randy Johnson in there, his shoulder is already too tight, and as he matures physically it's going to get worse, not better...."
Beats me.