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I like this approach. Pitch-to-contact guys simply don't have much if any upside. In the past it was said that you can't teach velocity, but pitch labs and Driveline have roved that you can, indeed teach velocity to some. But that might be a higher risk than teaching control. At least with these low-floor high-ceilings guys you know they have the physical capacity to reach the upper speeds. If Little can find control and spin at 98-100 then he is a potential TOR guy. Better chance of that than teaching teaching Brendon Little to up his velocity and maintain control and stamina. Little will most likely flame out (pun intended) but if you draft 5 guys with this upside and one hits then you have already beaten every draft since Theo took over.

Finally had time to listen to that interview.  Blue, your account was an excellent synopsis.  Kantrovitz was very enthusiastic about their picks; went after tools in the belief that the development system will make them work. 

Not knowing his personality, was hard to filter his positive message.  Might just be a Fleita.  But I expected him to tone down enthusiasm; he didn't really. 


*There have been thoughts that Little's notorious 105 wasn't really real in some way; Kantrovitz didn't doubt it, downplay it, or pooh-pooh it any ways, and seemed to accept the 105 as a real thing.  Sounded like he though the velocity was for real, and said that their scouts loves Little.  But otherwise sounded like they assume he'll pretty much need to be completely rebuilt in the pitch lab. 

*People have hyped Burl as this big-stuff ready-now guy. I expected K to downplay the hype; but he didn't really.  Has things to do, and don't want to rush him; but K seemed fine with the narrative that Burl might be ready very soon.  Surprised me; I assumed as with Little that he'd probably be viewed as a raw talent with a lot of pitch-lab reconstruction ahead.  K also notes that Burl is an enthusiastic, energetic guy, and that fans will like him. 
 
*Nwogu: talked up his capacity to control the strike zone and limit K's, which I found encouraging.  Assumed Nwogu would be a hit-lab project and would need to rebuild his swing.  K seemed pretty optimistic about Nwogu NOT being a big K-guy; power guys who don't K excessively are pretty valuable..  Callis was kind of surprised that Nwogu didn't strike out more given his swing; suggested that he must have some really good hand-eye coordination. 

*K also didn't back away from talking about Howard hitting for power. 

Callis was pretty positive about Moreno; almost like he thought he was too good to be signable. 

I like the focus on tools which is better than what they where doing.  I was just disappointed with the positions they choose.  If they had take Clayton Beeter instead of Burl, I'd be pretty happy with draft.  Beeter might end up as reliever, but he at least has a chance to start.

On Little velocity.  105 isn't impossible for him especially since there is confirmed trackman's of 101 and 102.  The number of guys that throw that hard is tiny, even smaller if you make it lefties.  Callis was implying that as a starter he was sitting 93-96 and only Max Fried was in that area as a lefty starter last year.  If they could pitch lab him a more consistent breaking ball and an off-speed pitch (change-up, forkball) letting him start could be a fun option, but it is probably easier to let him develop as a reliever.

If they use the tools approach to look for starting pitchers and are willing to dip into the high school ranks, then I think there is a lot of reason to be happy about what the Cubs are doing.  They won't hit on 100%, but even it is similar to their percentage they had a college pitchers I'd be happy.  The difference is instead of a reliever you could end up with an ace.

This draft is a B+ just getting Howard.  It could have been a lot better, but it could also have been a whole lot worse too in rounds 2-5. 

I'm good with judging and grading based on what you know at the time.  Totally fair. 

Obviously how the guys ACTUALLY play out is what will matter.  (Duh, super obvious.)

I think their are good chances that it will not play out great.  Pitch and hit labs, analytics and development are the buzz. 

But I'm hesitant to assume that analytics and pitch labs will convert wildmen into control artists.  Pretty good chance that wild is wild, and Burl and Little will just be too wild to be especially good. 

Hit lab seems even less likely to make bad hitters good.  Yes, to better utilize latent power, I believe it.  To make good hitters better, I believe it.

So yeah, who knows, down the line all of these guys might develop and be variably good, and it will look genius.  Or 5 years out, I might look back and say, "man, why waste picks on wildmen, can't fix that; and guy who can't process movement, you can't fix that."

Howard is different story, of course.  But who knows?  Maybe his shoulder problems will return, and we'll look back and say, "Man, why draft a SS who's just had shoulder problems?  Dumb."  Maybe the power will never come.  "Remember when they thought he'd hit for power?  What were they thinking?"  Maybe both heat and movement will have him hit like Russell with even less power, and he'll be hanging as a #8 hitter.  "Why did they think he'd hit?  Other scouts had noticed that he'd struggled some on the summer circuit against better pitching...."   And maybe his defensive range will limit him to being an average SS, kind of a SS Almora.  "Man, I know he gets what he can reach, but even pre-draft reports recognized that his range would be limited.  Why didn't they go for more ceiling than a limited-range defense-first guy with no power and a fringy bat?" 

We grade now based on perceptions now, that makes sense.  Obviously there are scenarios in which all 5 will fail and it will look like an F.  And scenarios in which all 5 succeed and it will look like A+.  Time will tell.  For now, I'm hoping for the best, that they've all got what it takes, and that cutting-edge development will bring out the very best in each of them and that it will be really good.

Sounds like the second Cubs undrafted free agent signing might be Coastal Carolina shortstop Scott McKeon, a former Juco transfer who was off to a big spring before the season was cut short. Four home runs in 16 games after three bombs as a junior.

Looks like the Cubs have also signed Angel Gonzalez, a high schooler out of Puerto Rico. He popped 94 MPH off the mound in a showcase event last year.

Ben Leeper from Oklahoma State is a Cub.