Author Topic: Cubs Draft 2020  (Read 2168 times)

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #180 on: June 26, 2020, 10:10:05 pm »
I've heard people speculate that hitters that are on the show circuit can have trouble with hitting off of sub par guys.  They send so much time getting geared up to to hit 90's with good breaking balls that junk is hard to hit.

100%. My kid is playing in a tournament this weekend and through 2 games he hasn't seen a pitcher that has topped 70 (he is used to seeing 80+).  He hasn't pounded a fair ball yet.  He has pulled some foul.  Definitely takes some adjusting.  Hence SOME of the success of Kyle Hendricks. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #181 on: June 27, 2020, 07:57:58 am »
Howard also hit .396/.478./.625 with a bum shoulder in high school. He didnít exactly struggle.


chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #182 on: June 28, 2020, 06:48:22 am »
Those numbers indicate that he didnít struggle but they are Chicagoland HS numbers. I would imagine every decent team has 2-3 guys with BAs above .400.

I did check his Gamechanger and it shows a slash line of .421/.514/.684 so even better than what you posted. Of concern is 18 Ks (15 swinging) in 138 PAs along with 14 errors in 141 fielding chances.

Iím fine with the selection as the ďexpertsĒ all agree that Howard fits in that slot but he doesnít seem to be as sure a pick as Ryan Harvey, Luis Montanez or Earl Cunningham. 😁

The draft is a crapshoot where you weigh strengths (both apparent and projected) vs weaknesses. Hopefully this one works out though there are some red flags.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #183 on: June 28, 2020, 08:44:40 am »
He also had a shoulder issue his junior year.  This year is even more of crap shoot because we donít have any senior video on him.

I like the pick. A good fielding SS with even a slightly below average bat is a 3 WAR player and Howard has the ability to be a lot more than that.
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Dave23

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #184 on: June 28, 2020, 10:57:00 am »
Itís all relative without knowing the level of competition he faced.

If my son had only faced Memphis inner city programs, he would have probably hit .600/.800/.800.

We usually played our JV players against them, though...
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #185 on: June 28, 2020, 12:40:59 pm »
No idea what his competition level was, but he played in the Chicago Catholic League. Iím going to guess that is significantly egged than the public school league.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #186 on: June 28, 2020, 12:57:30 pm »
Illinois state high school playoff history.   Notice in the mid 90's things began to shift toward the bottom half of the state.  Very few Chicago teams, public or private.  After going to 4 levels, a lot of dominance by Southern Illinois teams.   

https://www.ihsa.org/Sports-Activities/Boys-Baseball/Records-History
click on Champions and Runners-up

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #187 on: June 28, 2020, 01:12:20 pm »
2/16 teams in 2019 playoffs where Chicago Catholic schools. I donít really know a lot about Chicago baseball, but Iím going to guess that the Chicago Catholic schools are going to better teams than the inner school teams.

 Baseball is expensive and people that can afford a Catholic school are going  to be able afford baseball. Those that canít afford it are going to be good enough to get financial aid..

Jack Birdbath

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #188 on: June 28, 2020, 01:24:13 pm »
1A and 2A will very rarely have a Chicago area team.  And then, because of the sectional format, it would be nearly impossible to get more than one Chicago team through to the state semifinals.  The format forces a downstate team, a central/western team, a city team, and a suburban team in the bigger classes. With 4A they might get an extra city or suburban team just because thatís where the biggest schools are. If they did a straight seeding, I suspect the Catholic league, western and northern suburban schools would dominate. Itís the same thing that is happening with football since they moved to a seeding for the top divisions. 
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #189 on: June 28, 2020, 01:24:25 pm »
CBJ, 2 of 16 is not impressive.  There will be 2 of 16 every year.  2 of the 16 final districts are in Chicago. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #190 on: June 28, 2020, 05:49:31 pm »

...Iím fine with the selection as the ďexpertsĒ all agree that Howard fits in that slot but he doesnít seem to be as sure a pick as Ryan Harvey, Luis Montanez or Earl Cunningham. 😁


I know you're joking but wanted to point out that when Cunningham was drafted in 1989, the national HS showcases were not as prevalent and was a harder read for all clubs to get a fix on HS hitters.  There were two HS OFers in 1989 drafted ahead of Cunningham who also washed out.  None of the three ever made it past AA.  One of the three, Jeff Jackson, was the 4th overall pick from a Chicago HS, Simeon, that has had many guys drafted by MLB over the years but only one has made the majors, Wes Chamberlain, drafted a few years before Jackson.

It's still a crapshoot with HS guys of course but maybe there's a bit more info these days, at least when you can scout a guy his senior season too. 

chgojhawk

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #191 on: June 28, 2020, 10:03:21 pm »
You are correct that I was joking.

There is far more information available from websites but it is still difficult to see all of the talent. A kid can hit .800 for a season but go 0-4 with 3 Ks when the scout sees him and it turns out he was up all night sick. Who knows.

As I said.....Iím good with the Howard selection. I think it will work out.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #192 on: June 29, 2020, 09:54:18 am »
https://theathletic.com/podcast/37-onto-waveland/?episode=84

Nice interview with Burl.  Very well-spoken young man. 

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #193 on: June 30, 2020, 01:53:38 pm »
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2020/06/30/new-cubs-related-podcast-cubs-second-round-pick-burl-carraway-talks-spin-rate-new-slider/

Yet another Burl interview.  Very well-spoken as usual.  If I was to listen to just one of his, this would be the one.  More technical about his stuff. 

Obviously very well versed in spin rate, tunnelling, spin angle, rapsodo, etc..  Seems like a thoughtful guy who will be very receptive to try to use analytics insights to improve his effectiveness. 

The big curveball is the hardest pitch in baseball to throw for strikes.  Having a good-spin curveball is appealing; but if he can rarely throw the curve for strikes, how's he going to thrive? 

So I was particularly interested with his goal of adding a slider.  Said Kershaw talked about the value of the slider: much easier to throw for strikes, and more side-to-side than vertical movement.  I appreciated that Burl realized adding a 3rd pitch with less break and more strikes than the curveball would be really useful for him. 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs Draft 2020
« Reply #194 on: June 30, 2020, 04:58:27 pm »
Hopefully next season he gets on a roll.
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