Author Topic: Cubs Draft 2022  (Read 4957 times)

Dave23

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #240 on: July 24, 2022, 09:59:52 pm »
Noland pitched great against both Stanford and Ole Miss in Omaha.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #241 on: July 26, 2022, 11:04:50 pm »
Lee signs for slightly over-slot with the #8 pick. 
-He basically signs with the Twins for what our slot would have been, $5.7, versus the $4.45 Horton got.  $1.2 difference. 
-Collier signed for $5.0. 
-Parada hasn't signed yet. 

In my view, the Cubs did not pass on Collier for financial reasons.  To make Collier work, the Cubs could have still taken Ferris; all they'd have needed to compromise was on 3rd-round projection Paciolla.  No big deal.  If Collier and Horton were equal, sure, price is fine as a tiebreaker.  But *IF* the Cubs scouted Collier ahead of Horton, Paciolla and a little money would NOT have overridden taking the preferred prospect.

Lee, though, at $1.2 that equivalent argument does not hold.  To take Lee would have either meant deferring on Ferris, or else pretty much seriously sub-slotting for every round after Ferris.  So with Lee, I think it *IS* plausible that the Cubs might have preferred Lee, all things being equal; but preferred Horton + Ferris over Lee.  We'll never know, of course; perhaps they really had Lee and Horton at equivalent value, so it was a no-brainer. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #242 on: July 27, 2022, 12:29:10 am »
Listened to Keith Law’s draft post-mortem podcast at The Athletic, an interesting listen that i’d recommend. Went up about 5 days ago before Horton bonus info went up.

Law has written that Cubs Horton pick was perhaps a “recency bias” pick, which he explains as a matter of draft philosophy that folks can reasonably disagree about. Think that perhaps he gives a bit of short shrift to Horton’s HS pedigree but most interesting thing is that he assumes Horton will sign for slot or near slot and, therefore, not really impacting other Cubs picks that much—although he mentions Ferris and Mule as upside potential guys.

After the Kantrovitz interviews and the Horton actual bonus number, all of it makes more sense compared to draft day.

Before the draft, I said hope that Cubs get the guy they really want but don’t outsmart themselves (Hayden Simpson still in the memory bank, I think). If it turns out that Horton’s last 5 starts were an illusion, maybe that description might fit. But, at this point, on board with Cubs draft philosophy and the massive emphasis on pitching upside.

davep

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #243 on: July 27, 2022, 09:40:50 am »
I think that it is far too oversimplified to consider only the first and second round picks when considering the Horton choice.

I think it is quite likely that the Cubs knew not only what Horton would sign for, but also what they could sign Lee or Collier for.  So they were deciding what was the better value, Horton at 4.4 million or Lee at 5.7 million.  If they felt that the future value of Lee was worth the 5.7, but the future value of Horton was 5.6 million, (not quite as high as Lee, but much higher than the actual cost), then they made the right choice, giving them an excess value of 1.1 million to spend later in the draft, whether it be Ferris or someone equivalent.


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #244 on: July 27, 2022, 10:20:13 am »
Even the $500,000 difference between Horton and Collier has a big effect on who the Cubs after Ferris.

Law thinks it is recency bias by going after Horton and just looking at postseason  Kantrovitz, from interviews, believes that the trackman numbers provide a statistically significant sample.

craig

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #245 on: July 27, 2022, 02:37:15 pm »
reb, a couple of thoughts.
 
"Recency bias" is pejorative, but I'm a cautious supporter!  Especially for young pitchers whose capacities are changing.  If a guy has learned new skills, it makes best sense to evaluate him as he is now, with those skills, rather than evaluate him as the pre-skill guy.  Horton got faster; his command got better; he developed the slider.  He flashed pitches in June that trackman captured, that were not there in March.

"Recency bias" is more appropriate for young pitchers than for hitters or vets.   Young pitchers really do learn new grips and new pitches that make them better, sustainably so.  And show up with sustainably increased velocity.  Their skills and capacities can change significantly.  Hitters can't "learn to hit" the way a pitcher can "learn a new grip", so "adding a skill" isn't really a thing for hitters. 

The small-sample is a legit hesitation and risk for sure; who knows how sustainable any of it will be?  Horton didn't pitch until March 29, or start until April 14.  His postseason (31IP) was barely smaller than the regular season 53IP.   

I trust the thoroughness and logic of the Cubs analysis, and accept the associated risk.  I'm sure they are well aware that there is no safety in either Horton or Ferris.  You can have great process and logic and infrastructure and philosophy, but it comes down to individual players and health.

Twenty year ago I trusted the process and liked drafting Brownlie, Blasko, Luke Hagerty, Justin Jones, and Billy Petrick, too.  Seemed like a great, high-ceiling haul that could hypothetically combine with Prior and Kerry Wood to set up a pitching dynasty!  Opportunity unfulfilled. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #246 on: July 28, 2022, 01:31:20 pm »
4th rounder Nazier Mule has signed.

CCDT has a link to his Instagram page with photo of the signing.

No bonus $ out yet.

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #247 on: July 28, 2022, 02:45:57 pm »
Bonus for 13th rounder HS pitcher Luis Rujano was $210,000——$85,000 overslot.

So, that leaves just over $4 M for Ferris and Mule and any other overslots.

Reb

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #248 on: July 28, 2022, 03:00:28 pm »
Mule’s bonus is $1 M even.

That leaves a few dollars over $3 for Ferris.

craig

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« Last Edit: July 28, 2022, 03:06:48 pm by craig »
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #250 on: July 28, 2022, 05:13:50 pm »
Picking up Joey Votto,  Bryan Reynolds to paternity list.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #251 on: July 28, 2022, 05:17:09 pm »
Planning to draft his kid?

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #252 on: July 28, 2022, 08:14:57 pm »
CBJ struggling to keep reality and fantasy.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #253 on: July 28, 2022, 08:55:45 pm »
Too many topics with 2022 and having to keep an eye on a dog with diarrhea.

davep

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Re: Cubs Draft 2022
« Reply #254 on: July 28, 2022, 09:35:39 pm »
Did you switch professions?