Reuschel for the Hall of Fame? Check this out, excerpted from:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/28/2019517/using-trammell-and-reuschel-to-explain-war"Pitcher WAR is a bit more of a mystery to us mere mortals. Let’s give it a whirl anyway with Rick Resuchel as our sample. Why Mr. Reuschel? Because now that Bert Blyleven is in the Hall of Fame, Reuschel has the distinction of having the highest career WAR among eligible non-Hall of Famers. That took me by surprise and I'm sure I'm not alone. So, let's see what makes it so.
Reuschel was a big workhorse who threw over 3500 innings in his career. He won 210 games and lost 187 with just a .528 winning percentage. He posted a 3.37 ERA for his career, which gave him a 114 ERA+ (14% better than average). He was very good at avoiding home runs, allowing just 221 (0.6 per nine innings). In other words, he is 67th all time in innings pitched but just 156th all time in home runs.
Stat geeks love pitchers who don’t allow home runs. The FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) methodology states that pitchers have complete control over just three in-game outcomes—the walk, the strikeout, and the home run. Everything else leaves a pitcher leaning on his defense to get the job done.
The fact is some pitchers play in front of better defenses than others. Over his carer, Reuschel allowed 1494 runs (total runs, not just earned runs). According to WAR, during his career his defense was worth –66 runs. It is much better to use total runs and then give the pitcher back what the defense actually cost him than to use earned runs. A run is only unearned if there is an error involved—and we all know that a fielder can’t make an error on a ball that he’s too slow to even reach.
Reuschel’s Runs expected for replacement level is 2106 runs. In other words, a replacement level pitcher who threw the same number of innings as Reuschel, against the same opponents as Reuschel, in the same ballparks as Resuchel, in the same league as Reuschel, in the same game situations as Reuschel (by spending the vast majority of his career as a starter, Reuschel’s leverage index was 1.1), and with the same defensive support as Reuschel would give up 612 runs more than Reuschel did.
Running that number through the wins converter brings us to 66.3 WAR, which is an exceptional total. That actually puts him in the Top 30 all time for pitchers. Some things just are not captured in ERA."