Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75546 times)

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1920 on: February 13, 2018, 05:24:46 pm »
*Heh heh, funny that Yu's last year is same as Lackey's!  :)

I must be missing something here.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1921 on: February 13, 2018, 05:26:09 pm »
I would agree that variety is likely to help Darvish age well.  He's not a guy who has to average 94-95 to be effective.

I do think Yu's 4-seamer is a better pitch if he throws the curve 10-12 times a game.  Hell, I even like the ephus pitch for him, though he hasn't used it for a few years.  Most of his stuff is pretty hard, 86-plus.

I love the ephus pitch.  It would be fun to see him revive it.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1922 on: February 13, 2018, 05:58:35 pm »
If he's coming off two big years, yes, he will definitely get more than $81M guaranteed.

I don't think it's that clear. If this year's market is a consequence of the new CBA, I don't see the 2019-20 market being much more lucrative. And as I mentioned a couple days ago, the free agent market that year is loaded. At best, he's going to be the 3rd most desirable pitcher on the market (behind Sale and Bumgarner, who will each be 3 years younger than him). If Gerrit Cole re-establishes himself as a TOR pitcher over the next two years, he'll be 4 years younger and more desirable. And Gray, Odorizzi, Pineda, Porcello, Wood, Hamels, and McHugh could be nice targets who might be available for less.

I guess it depends on your definition of "big" years. If he's a Cy Young type pitcher the next two years (and 2/3 of Bumgarner, Sale, and Cole lose value), then maybe it makes sense. But if his big years are more like #2/fringe ace years (4-5 WAR), I think he'd have trouble finding more than 4/$81 at that point.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1923 on: February 13, 2018, 06:05:05 pm »
Most big contracts dont work out and Darvish is on the wrong side of 30.

I bet he doesnt opt out.

If he does I like that we got him for only a 2 year deal anyway.


ticohans

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1924 on: February 13, 2018, 06:38:34 pm »
I don't think it's that clear. If this year's market is a consequence of the new CBA, I don't see the 2019-20 market being much more lucrative. And as I mentioned a couple days ago, the free agent market that year is loaded. At best, he's going to be the 3rd most desirable pitcher on the market (behind Sale and Bumgarner, who will each be 3 years younger than him). If Gerrit Cole re-establishes himself as a TOR pitcher over the next two years, he'll be 4 years younger and more desirable. And Gray, Odorizzi, Pineda, Porcello, Wood, Hamels, and McHugh could be nice targets who might be available for less.

I guess it depends on your definition of "big" years. If he's a Cy Young type pitcher the next two years (and 2/3 of Bumgarner, Sale, and Cole lose value), then maybe it makes sense. But if his big years are more like #2/fringe ace years (4-5 WAR), I think he'd have trouble finding more than 4/$81 at that point.

Are you saying 4-5 WAR per year, or total, over the next two years? If he puts up 8-10 WAR next two years he’ll easily clear $100M.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1925 on: February 13, 2018, 06:59:14 pm »
I’m saying 4-5 WAR per year.

I just don’t think it’s obvious anymore on opt outs. If this offseason is anywhere close to the new normal, I can’t see a 33 year old who is the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on the market getting the type of guarantee he’d have gotten before this year.

We’ll see. I could change my mind when Arrieta and (to a lesser extent) Cobb and Lynn sign...but if 31 year old Arrieta ends us signing for an 8-figure deal, I’d be more convinced of the non-opt out. Keuchel’s market next year will also be telling.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1926 on: February 13, 2018, 07:21:49 pm »
I love the ephus pitch.  It would be fun to see him revive it.

Many years ago there was a pitcher that threw the ephus pitch (luke Suwell comes to mind, but I am not sure) that made it to the All Star Game.  His team mates convinced him to throw one to Ted Williams.  He hit it so hard that it might be still going.

In fairness, Williams knew it was coming.  That did eliminate some of the surprise value.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1927 on: February 13, 2018, 07:23:32 pm »
Rip Sewell

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1928 on: February 13, 2018, 07:23:52 pm »
Most big contracts dont work out and Darvish is on the wrong side of 30.

I bet he doesnt opt out.

If he does I like that we got him for only a 2 year deal anyway.



If he DOES opt out, we can use that money to sign Chris Sale.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1929 on: February 13, 2018, 07:32:57 pm »
Rip Sewell

Thanks, Dave.

When I was about 9 years old, my older cousin took me to a Cubs game, and we bought a program.  The Cubs were playing the Reds, and my cousin was looking at it and saw that their manager was Sewell.  When he read it, he said look here,  it says "Swell - Manager".  They need a Swell manager if they are going to beat our Cubs.

I thought it was the funniest thing I had ever heard.

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1930 on: February 13, 2018, 08:21:15 pm »
If I’m remembering correctly, Williams’ HR off Sewell in the ASG was the only HR ever hit off his eephus pitch...

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1931 on: February 13, 2018, 08:37:48 pm »
If I’m remembering correctly, Williams’ HR off Sewell in the ASG was the only HR ever hit off his eephus pitch...

Yeah.... I had also heard that.

"Sewell warned Williams before the game he was going to throw him the blooper. With the American League ahead 8–0, Williams came to bat, and Sewell nodded, indicating the blooper was coming. Williams fouled off the first blooper. Sewell nodded again, and threw another blooper and then another. With the count 1–2, Williams hit the blooper for a home run—the only home run ever hit off Sewell's blooper pitch. As Williams rounded the bases, Sewell followed him, saying, "the only reason you hit it was because I told you it was coming." Williams laughed, the fans loved it, and Sewell received a standing ovation when he walked off the mound. (Donald Honig, "Baseball When the Grass Was Real" (1975), p. 257).

Years later, Williams admitted that he had been running towards the pitcher's mound as he hit the ball, and photographs reveal that he was in front of the batter's box when he made contact—a violation of baseball rules."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rip_Sewell

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1932 on: February 13, 2018, 08:42:12 pm »
Like I said earlier.

I learn everything I need to know about baseball here.

Deeg

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ben

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1934 on: February 14, 2018, 08:00:30 am »
Theo: "When we acquired Quintana, we made the point that with the great contract he had, it might allow us to bring another pitcher with

him.  We almost felt like we were acquiring one and a half pitchers in that deal because it would go halfway to acquiring someone else.

Today is that day."