Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75751 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1935 on: February 14, 2018, 08:46:07 am »
Jessie Rogers was on the Cubs Talk podcast and said the intial Darvish contract discussions was 5/$125 and it was the Cubs who pushed for the 6th year to bring down the AAV.

And put me in the he doesn’t opt out camp, because if he’s good enough at 33 to get better what is left on his contract then there is a good chance the contract escalators kick in.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 08:49:54 am by CUBluejays »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1936 on: February 14, 2018, 08:57:41 am »
Theo: "When we acquired Quintana, we made the point that with the great contract he had, it might allow us to bring another pitcher with him.  We almost felt like we were acquiring one and a half pitchers in that deal because it would go halfway to acquiring someone else.  Today is that day."

That's a great insight into the interconnectedness of moves.  I wasn't sure Eloy for Q was wise at the time, even though I knew the contract was good.  But at the time I don't think I appreciated how much impact that could have on this offseason, or that it would enable adding a guy with Darvish's talent and ceiling. 
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1937 on: February 14, 2018, 11:25:27 am »
Quote
Sahadev Sharma
‏Verified account @sahadevsharma
55m55 minutes ago

Sahadev Sharma Retweeted The Athletic

Of all starters, minimum 500 IP, Yu Darvish's 29.7% strikeout rate is the best. Not just of current pitchers. Of all time.

Ron

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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1939 on: February 14, 2018, 12:16:50 pm »
That's pretty amazing.  Obviously it's a world where hitters all whiff, so contact-hitting just isn't a thing like in previous generations.  But to be a higher K-guy than modern greats like Scherzer or Strasburg or Kershaw, that's pretty awesome. 

I wonder how the Cubs will coach him to make him better. With Dodgers, he average 5.1 innings per start (not counting playoffs of course.)  Not sure Maddon is that way.  But it wouldn't shock me if the Cubs perhaps encouraged to adjust situationally toward a variably more pitch-to-contact approach?  If it's taking 100 pitches to get through 5 innings with 7K's and 2 walks, maybe if the offense has scored some runs might it be OK to throw a few more fastballs and cutters early in the count, and allow some contact, but resolve a few more AB in 1-3 pitches instead of taking 6 pitches per batter? 

Hard to know.  I like the Dodgers way, keeping the exposure and the wear on the starters limited so they're strong for November baseball, and of course a lot of pitchers aren't as effective 3rd and 4th times through the order.  So being fine with mostly 6 inning starts on a good day, and being fine with 5-inning starts on days that aren't as easy, that seems maybe smart to me. 

But, keeping the wear down on the starters at the expense of the bullpen is a mixed blessing too, if the pen is going 3-4 innings every single day.  I'm glad it's guys wiser than me thinking that stuff through. 

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1940 on: February 14, 2018, 12:17:56 pm »
That's an impressive accomplishment, but it has to be viewed within the context of the modern era of the strikeout.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1941 on: February 14, 2018, 12:19:00 pm »
Thanks for recommendation to pay for the Athletic.  Mooney and Sharma are good, I took the plunge with some birthday money.  :) 
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1942 on: February 14, 2018, 12:29:50 pm »
A lot of stats get thrown around these days, but that's one that means something.  Leading all SP ever in K% is not a trivial thing.

More so than with most guys (maybe any guys) a lot comes down to coaching with Darvish.  If you can get the 16-17 Darvish healthy enough to give you 30 starts, he's easily worth $21M per season.  If you can get the next-level Yu, who translates his dominant pure stuff into bottom-line results, he could be among the best half-dozen SP in baseball.  I personally believe the Dodgers restrictor plate approach was too limiting - let Yu be Yu.  But I do think you want to get him focused on 4 pitches, maybe 5.  Obviously the 4-seamer and slider and two of them - it's a matter of figuring out what the others are.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1943 on: February 14, 2018, 12:33:32 pm »
Hope springs eternal, I love the spring stories, maybe especially before exhibition games actually begin.  Have already seen three classics. 

Mooney had an article with Montgomery.  I think we've noted that Montgomery had said he'd prefer to start.  Anyway, in the article MM suggested that the usage was hard on him, and that his arm got really worn out.  Said he's talked to the Cubs about using him a little differently, if possible, this year.  He didn't seem to have any attitude at all, seems like a thoughtful, good guy.  But noted that his usage was so unusual that he doesn't think either he or the Cubs totally knew how to do it best, and that he thinks both he and they are positioned to be somewhat smarter about it this year.  Part of it is on him, of course.  Athletes are all tough heros, and want to help the team, so it's hard for guys to say my arm is tired.  MM sounded like he knows he needs to be more honest this year, and be more willing to say so when he's not good to go.  But I think the Cubs need to give him more rest.  He mentioned one time, which I think I remember, where he started a game and threw 5-6 innings, then came back only 3 days later and pitched 3 more.  They'd never do that mid-season with Q or Lester; don't think should with MM either. 

I wonder if they'll be a little more careful and restful with him during periods where he may be starting?  Or whether, perhaps, they'll use him less as a starter?  For example, is Tseng was doing well for Iowa, and they needed an occassional fill-in start, perhaps is Tseng was reasonably anti-awful, maybe it woudl be better to use him for the spot starts and leave MM in relief?  Or else if MM does get used in rotation, to keep him there on a regular schedule for a bunch of weeks, even if that means skipping some starts for other guys or going 6-deep for a while? 

Think he's a smart guy, and Cubs are smart too.  So I'm hopeful that having gone through it for a year, that they'll all be a little wiser about how to both utilize him but also protect him, to mutual benefit.   

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1944 on: February 14, 2018, 12:37:53 pm »
I know it's been talked about, but the Cubs could go with a 6-man rotation - at least for part of the season.  I certainly think they're deep enough to make that work.

ticohans

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1945 on: February 14, 2018, 01:10:44 pm »
That's an impressive accomplishment, but it has to be viewed within the context of the modern era of the strikeout.

Agreed. And in the context of the modern era of the strikeout, Yu is without peer.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1946 on: February 14, 2018, 01:22:16 pm »
Yeah, could see doing that for a while.  3 thoughts:
1.  That shortens the pen by an arm.  Kinda want to have all of your relievers used and effective to get by with that.  (As opposed to having Florio or Frankoff.....)  Also might help if you had some 2-inning relievers, and let guys pitch through full innings and reduced the mid-inning switches.

2.  If going with 6-man rotation, my mind views that as everybody going on 6-day rotation, one extra day.  But I wonder if that isn't how they'd do it, instead just let one guy skip a start per rotation, so that each guy got a 10-11 day break.   the next week Hendricks gets to skip and get a 10-day break, etc..  Maddon has seemed to talk about that with All-star, that getting a good solid 10-14 day break can really help some tired arms.  I almost wonder, if you did 6 man on either side of the break, if you couldn't enable 2-week breaks for several or all of the regular starter?   

Are you allowed to put guys on 10-day DL just for rest-purposes? 


CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1947 on: February 14, 2018, 01:22:56 pm »
For an old timer who watched Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Ryan...that stat is mind blowing.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1948 on: February 14, 2018, 01:24:15 pm »
Oh.  Old timer=Davep.  Not me.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1949 on: February 14, 2018, 01:27:58 pm »
Yeah, could see doing that for a while.  3 thoughts:
1.  That shortens the pen by an arm.  Kinda want to have all of your relievers used and effective to get by with that.  (As opposed to having Florio or Frankoff.....)  Also might help if you had some 2-inning relievers, and let guys pitch through full innings and reduced the mid-inning switches.

2.  If going with 6-man rotation, my mind views that as everybody going on 6-day rotation, one extra day.  But I wonder if that isn't how they'd do it, instead just let one guy skip a start per rotation, so that each guy got a 10-11 day break.   the next week Hendricks gets to skip and get a 10-day break, etc..  Maddon has seemed to talk about that with All-star, that getting a good solid 10-14 day break can really help some tired arms.  I almost wonder, if you did 6 man on either side of the break, if you couldn't enable 2-week breaks for several or all of the regular starter?   

Are you allowed to put guys on 10-day DL just for rest-purposes? 


I definitely don't like that second approach (and the answer to the DL question is no - at least in theory).  If you're going to go with a 6-man I think it's a straight 6-day cycle, with Montgomery floating to the pen if there are multiple off days.

If you're going to go with a 13-man staff anyway (which I don't like) I wouldn't be concerned with a 6-man rotation shorting the bullpen one guy.  A 7-man bullpen should be more than plenty with a 6-man rotation full of well-rested starters.