Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 75494 times)

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1890 on: February 12, 2018, 07:51:54 am »
Brett Taylor's take on Heyman's report:  http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/12/cubs-reportedly-offered-jake-arrieta-a-deal-similar-to-yu-darvish-however/

Assuming something like this actually occurred, it isn't clear how "close" the Cubs offer was to the Darvish offer.

Jes Beard

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1891 on: February 12, 2018, 06:36:23 pm »
Brett Taylor's take on Heyman's report:  http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/02/12/cubs-reportedly-offered-jake-arrieta-a-deal-similar-to-yu-darvish-however/

Assuming something like this actually occurred, it isn't clear how "close" the Cubs offer was to the Darvish offer.

Offer Arrieta a one year, $15M guaranteed contract with a $5 bonus for reaching 200 innings, another $5M for being in the top 3 in Cy Young voting and another $5M for winning it -- so if he returns to 2015 form, he would have a $30M contract AND be free to enter the free agent market on that high note.... and the Cubs would go thru 2018 with what would probably be the best rotation in history.

If even the $15M base would be too much for the luxury tax penalties, then drop the base to $5M and add other incentives that would be incredibly easy to reach -- like a $10M bonus for throwing his first regular season pitch.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1892 on: February 12, 2018, 06:59:10 pm »
With Heyward in right and Almora in center the Cubs will have one bad fielder. The rest are average to excellent. Can't see them being the worst defensive anything this year.

Yeah, that's weird.  I suppose it's a computer thing, so by defensive metrics Almora was pretty below average?  I'm guessing they maybe have Willson pretty far below average, too. 

I'd expect a lot of good defense this summer. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1893 on: February 12, 2018, 07:03:12 pm »
Yeah, that's weird.  I suppose it's a computer thing, so by defensive metrics Almora was pretty below average?  I'm guessing they maybe have Willson pretty far below average, too. 

I'd expect a lot of good defense this summer. 

Almora only had 643 innings in CF last year.  That isn't even a full year and you really need multiple seasons for it to matter.  His DRS was -1 last year and is UZR/150 was 2.3.  His UZR/150 put him in line with Jackie Bradley last year.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1894 on: February 12, 2018, 07:09:02 pm »
I’m pretty sure PECOTA had the Cubs’ defense as a negative when first published last year, and they changed it once someone pointed it out. They have the Cubs at least two wins (and probably three) below where they should be because of their defensive projection.

I think most defensive metrics had Contreras above average last year because his throwing/athleticism is so good that it outweighs his receiving negatives. If they have him below average, I think they’re wrong.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1895 on: February 12, 2018, 07:27:51 pm »
If I’m reading BP correct their version of WAR had in at 3.1 (includes framing). Fangraphs has him at 3.2.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1896 on: February 12, 2018, 07:28:26 pm »
I think Contreras and Almora are both pretty close to composite average when you weigh up their positives and negatives.  The difference (apart from offensive value of course) is that Contreras at least theoretically could improve on his areas of weakness.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1897 on: February 12, 2018, 08:17:55 pm »
Almora only had 643 innings in CF last year.  That isn't even a full year and you really need multiple seasons for it to matter.  His DRS was -1 last year and is UZR/150 was 2.3.  His UZR/150 put him in line with Jackie Bradley last year.

I'd just been thinking that if all they have to enter into their computer spreadsheet is the small-sample unreliable number, what else do they have to enter?  So, shaky number entered can lead to shaky outcoe. 

ben

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1898 on: February 12, 2018, 10:11:11 pm »
Wherever our position players should rank among league starters, the great news is that most all of our starters (certainly Contreras and Almora) are still quite young and can reasonably project to be BETTER in 2018 and thereafter while they're under Cub control!

Lots more fun upcoming!

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1899 on: February 12, 2018, 10:16:30 pm »
I'd just been thinking that if all they have to enter into their computer spreadsheet is the small-sample unreliable number, what else do they have to enter?  So, shaky number entered can lead to shaky outcoe. 
Didn't they used to call that GIGO?

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1900 on: February 13, 2018, 10:18:47 am »
On the radio this morning, Mike Krukow expressed serious doubts about Yu.  He said that Yu is a guy that readily loses confidence and that he will have a hard time recovering from his disastrous WS.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1901 on: February 13, 2018, 10:19:35 am »
Yeah, no big deal, those grapes were probably sour anyway.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1902 on: February 13, 2018, 10:20:18 am »
The first time he has to wear PJ's on a trip, his confidence will be the least of his concerns.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1903 on: February 13, 2018, 11:45:39 am »
Full Darvish contract terms:

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #1904 on: February 13, 2018, 11:48:56 am »
Gimenez:

Quote
“I heard [the Dodgers] took his breaking ball away from him [Darvish threw just three curveballs in the World Series after throwing the pitch 6 percent of time during the regular season]. I can understand, it’s not like his slider, but it does effectively set up other pitches. I watched him pitch in the World Series, and it wasn’t necessarily him.”

The issue of what pitch arsenal to focus on with Darvish is one that doesn't get talked about enough.  It's not a matter of not having enough of one with him - it's having too much arsenal.  He not only has probably 7-8 pitches, he likes them.  Darvish likes to toy with hitters and make them look bad.  What's the golden mean with him?  Obviously the fastball and slider are the core of the arsenal, but what else?  When he was in Japan a lot of people thought his spiltter was the best in NPB.  Clearly Gimenez thinks Darvish needs the slow curve as a setup pitch (I think he's right).  And his change can be devastating, when it's on.