Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72250 times)

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #60 on: October 03, 2018, 10:51:56 pm »
Almora has around 600 PA be around a league average hitter and 168 PA being worse than Darwin Barney. A league average hitter with + defense in CF has value.

The Cubs don’t need 8 guys with wRC+ of 130 to be an amazing offense.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #61 on: October 03, 2018, 10:58:49 pm »
I didn't think Contreras seemed as good first half either.  Thought he struggled more often than he had in past, but that he'd had a couple of blazing bursts that lifted the composite numbers.  Yes, of course I realize that everybody's numbers are lifted by their hottest bursts.  But I thought that was much more extreme for Contreras first half. 

I say that not to be negative.  But that maybe there were indications he wasn't as good in April and May, when he shouldn't have been tired.  When August-September rolled around, those difficulties were amplified, and being both off in the first place plus tired besides was double-whammy.  But I guess I'm not super confident that giving an extra day off each weak next year will bring back 2016 Contreras. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #62 on: October 03, 2018, 11:10:41 pm »
What was Russell's injury deal this year?  I know he had a sore knuckle late in the season.  Was his knuckle bothering him all year?  Or did he have a shoulder injury too? 

I hadn't actually realized he was injured all season.  That makes two years straight that were bad because of injuries?   

I thought he had a leg issue, but he hurt his knuckle in around July 1 which is close enough to end of the first half.

First half he slashed .272/.345/.391 For a wRC+ 101. Second half .198/.246/.222 for a wRC+ 28.

Almora had a similar drop off. .319/.357/.438 for a wRC+ 115, to .232/.267/ .280 for w RC+ 47

 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #63 on: October 03, 2018, 11:11:16 pm »
Almora has around 600 PA be around a league average hitter and 168 PA being worse than Darwin Barney. A league average hitter with + defense in CF has value.


Yes, he does - some.  And that's exactly what Almora is, a league average hitter as long as it's mostly against lefties.  So inventing a supposed hidden injury to explain that is looking for a black cat in a dark room that isn't there.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #64 on: October 03, 2018, 11:17:07 pm »
From July 1 on Almora had a .616 OPS vs lefties.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #65 on: October 03, 2018, 11:30:49 pm »
For most of the first half, Almora's BABIP was approaching .400. His success was never going to last.

I just don't get what everyone sees in him. He's a great defender. He's been a mediocre hitter for most of his minor league career and all of his MLB career.

He's a 4th or 5th outfielder on a team that is looking to win a championship every year. He could be a second division starter, though. When the Cubs go back to accepting being a mediocre team most years, he's probably a better solution than Damon Buford.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #66 on: October 04, 2018, 12:35:31 am »
I don't even think he's a great defender, personally.  Above-average is more like it.

I actually like Almora as a useful piece, because his skills play well if deployed judiciously.  Platoon vs. lefties in CF, 4th OF, defensive replacement, RH PH option.  Just don't try and get any more than that (444 ABs is way, way too many) out of him.  And if some GM is convinced you can, trade him and let them overpay.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 12:37:39 am by Deeg »

method

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #67 on: October 04, 2018, 08:01:39 am »
I  just read that depending on who doesn't come back, the Twins could have only $24 million committed towards 2019.

If Ray's trade Kevin keirermeir and vj Cron they will have every single player on the 25 man be a pre arb.... Payroll below 15 million.

Ray's are also getting ready to ask Hillsborough county for a 700 million tax increase for a new stadium. Their current lease is through 2027.

In 2019 they are projected to get 55 million in revenue sharing $$$.

Hope the Ray's move to Charlotte.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #68 on: October 04, 2018, 08:17:02 am »
Willson's OPS by month this season:  March/April: .767; May: .869; June: .731; July: .876; August: .623; September/October: .465.
                                    last season:                    .699;         .787           .760          1.019             1.185                               .776.


He was fine at the beginning of the season this year.  But he failed to sustain a relatively hot July the way he did last season.  If he had put up anything close to the numbers he did last year in the second half, we almost certainly would have won the Division.  Unless he has an undisclosed injury, exhaustion seems like the most likely cause.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 08:18:44 am by Playtwo »
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #69 on: October 04, 2018, 09:12:11 am »
For most of the first half, Almora's BABIP was approaching .400. His success was never going to last.

I just don't get what everyone sees in him. He's a great defender. He's been a mediocre hitter for most of his minor league career and all of his MLB career.

He's a 4th or 5th outfielder on a team that is looking to win a championship every year. He could be a second division starter, though. When the Cubs go back to accepting being a mediocre team most years, he's probably a better solution than Damon Buford.

Who had a higher BABIP Christian Yelich for 2018 or Almora in the first half?
 Almora had a high BABIP and his results where going to be less, sure. The real problem was his ISO went from .120 to .048.

He’s better than Buford and he’s better than a 4th/5th OF. If his offense stays the same as this year he’s Jackie Bradley Jr, should the Red Sox be cutting his playing time?

Almora had 12 Outs Above Average this year, which was 8th in MLB. Cain has 17 with about the equivalent of 22+ extra games in CF. Almora doesn’t have to be an All-Star to have value as a starter.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #70 on: October 04, 2018, 04:47:48 pm »
Hopefully Theo doesn't see Almora as an everyday player too, because he's not one on a contending team.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #71 on: October 04, 2018, 04:52:44 pm »
Hopefully Theo doesn't see Almora as an everyday player too, because he's not one on a contending team.

You and I have never seen eye to eye on Almora. I think he could well be an every day player on a contending team. But I agree that he probably should not be an every day player for the Cubs, given their existing roster.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #72 on: October 04, 2018, 05:30:44 pm »
I think you saw what happened this season when he was overexposed. 250-300 ABs in situational deployment is the way to go with him.

ben

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #73 on: October 04, 2018, 05:40:30 pm »
Maybe Almora will never hit better than he has in his first few hundred MLB ABs; however, it's worth noting that he just finished his 24-year old season.

MOST guys hit better (and with more power) as they near 27-28 with more MLB seasoning and greater strength.  Some take it to an entirely different, better level.

We shall see with Almora...and Happ and Schwarber and Contreras and... 

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #74 on: October 04, 2018, 07:14:40 pm »
Most guys who hit better at 27-28 have minor league numbers that suggest the possibility.