Bleacher Bums Forum

But I admit I do wonder.  Maybe I'm blinded by my eyes watching games, maybe it's recentism, and maybe I should get away what I saw watching games and should look at some statistical stuff.  But watching Schwarber and Happ, it's kind of hard to see how or why they should be much more productive, Schwarber especially, because it will be his year 5. 

Happ, maybe has a little more chance.  Think he's been trying to analyze and figure out why he can't hit much, maybe he's thinking too much and perhaps he'll hypothetically simplify to a see-it-and-let-it-rip approach and hypothetically end up blossoming into a .250 hitter or something.  But watching their swings, and how rarely they can hit strikes or fastballs, it's hard to really see why we should naturally expect a lot of improvement. 

I think one of the other factors with hitters is that sometimes with extended struggle, I suspect that can erode a guy's confidence.  A guy used to be good; but now you're not that good anymore, hard contact has become rare and flukey rather than normal, and you've tried everything you can and it doesn't help much?  Hard to swing with confidence when hard contact is so uncommon. 

Schwarber's power was down this year.  His ISO was .229 vs .241 and .256 in 2015 and 2017.  His wRC+ was 115.  That tied for 63rd in MLB for qualified hitters and that is your 5-7th hitter.  Maybe he doesn't reach Rizzo levels, but he's still good.

Happ, like Baez before him needs to drop his K%.  Maybe he can, maybe he doesn't.  He has a career wRC+ of 109 and was 106 and he's basically a back up. 

Look at it this way, if you take the Red Sox team and guys with more than 250 PA.  Schwarber would rank 5th and Happ 7th in terms of wRC+.  On the Cubs they ranked 5th and 6th.  The difference between the Cubs and Red Sox is Betts and Martinez performed like superstars and Bryant and Rizzo didn't.