Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72240 times)

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2018, 06:47:45 pm »
I'm not sold on how likely that bounce back is for either guy. There's clearly something wrong with Bryant's shoulder above and beyond simple fatigue, and it sounds like surgery hasn't been ruled out.  And Contreras flat out regressed this season, above and beyond simple overuse.  Simply banking on stuff like that is taking a big gamb le.

As for Machado, obviously a great player but if signing him comes with an expectation that he plays SS, I'm out - he's already a liability there.  He's super young for an elite FA but it's scary to commit so many years and so much money to a guy whose value is so tied in to defense and is already regressing there.  Depending on the money of course, Harper may be a less risky option.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2018, 06:57:51 pm »
what are you guys figuring for payroll?  $250-270 or so?

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2018, 07:07:59 pm »
what are you guys figuring for payroll?  $250-270 or so?
I  just read that depending on who doesn't come back, the Twins could have only $24 million committed towards 2019.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2018, 07:35:16 pm »
I'm pretty confident that the main problem for Contreras was fatigue. As some here have pointed out, he didn't allow himself to have a real offseason last year--he was immediately working on getting ready for the season. He caught far more than any other catcher in baseball this year...I looked it up about a month ago, and based on pitches caught, he was behind the plate for something like 8-10 full games worth more pitches than the second most active catcher in baseball. He had no All Star break.

And the numbers were there for the first 4 months of the season. After the game on August 1, he was hitting .283/.372/.458. The batting average and OBP were career highs (by 1 point and 15 points, respectively). The slugging was down from .494 over his first two seasons. But a part of that was that a few homers had turned into triples (he had 5 triples by that point this year; he had none in 2017 in about the same number of PAs). He had lost a few extra base hits since 2017, but nothing that would throw up any warning signs over a 384 PA sample when all the other numbers looked good. The fact that he just fell off a cliff for the last two months just fits with him wearing down.

Bryant, though...shoulder injuries are tricky. Especially vague shoulder issues that don't really have a clear diagnosis.

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2018, 08:08:40 pm »
If a player is on a multiyear contract with an option year, the luxury tax "hit" for the guaranteed years is the AAV of the guaranteed years.  Does anyone know for certain what the luxury tax "hit" is for the option year(s)?  I presume it's simply the value of the option.  But can anyone confirm?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2018, 08:22:01 pm »
I’m less worried about Bryant’s shoulder healing if he doesn’t need surgery.  If Bryant has surgery then I’m worried about next year. Is it possible the Cubs medical staff missed something with multiple MRIs. Yes. Could it be a issue next year?  Yes, but it is much less scary without surgery.


Last year Mookie Betts had a wRC+ 106, Bogarts 96, Benintendi 102, Joc Pederson 100, Machado 103. Sometimes young guys struggle or deal with injury issues.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2018, 08:46:41 pm »
Last year Mookie Betts had a wRC+ 106, Bogarts 96, Benintendi 102, Joc Pederson 100, Machado 103. Sometimes young guys struggle or deal with injury issues.

Three of those five had something in common with the Cubs' young hitters in 2018.

Part of a hitting coach's job is helping young players develop. I don't see how they can justify keeping Chili Davis around.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2018, 09:05:57 pm »
I believe what Theo said was something along the lines of “Do not believe he will need surgery but have not gotten the full medical report”, wasn’t it? That hardly rules out the possibility.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2018, 09:14:31 pm »
He said the current medical plan doesn’t include surgery and Kris will meet with the doctors soon for a recheck and that he still doesn’t expect it to include surgery.

The only reason surgery would be needed is if an MRI showed structural damage or his shoulder wasn’t improving. If his shoulder didn’t improve he would have never gotten back into game action.

Theo didn’t rule out surgery, but it is very unlikely.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2018, 09:18:50 pm »
Is that like "If Strop's hammy hadn't improved he never would have gotten back on the mound"?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #55 on: October 03, 2018, 09:32:28 pm »
Three of those five had something in common with the Cubs' young hitters in 2018.

Part of a hitting coach's job is helping young players develop. I don't see how they can justify keeping Chili Davis around.

Maybe he's the problem maybe he isn't.  Here is their wRC+ under Chili

Mookie
2015 120
2016 136

Benintendi
2016 118 PA, 121

Bogaerts (pre Chili)
2013 50 PA, 85
2014 81
2015 (Chili) 111
2016 114
2017 injured wrist

Heck look at Harper 137, 115, 197, 111, 155, 135

Look at the Cubs this year guys Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, Almora and Russell where the guys that fell off.  4/5 of those guys had injuries and or over use confirmed.  The only guy that didn't is Almora and as bad as he played in the second half I wouldn't be shocked if he had something going on.

Happ was basically the same.

Baez, Zobrist, Heyward, Schwarber all improved over last year.

Development isn't linear.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #56 on: October 03, 2018, 10:09:42 pm »
What was Russell's injury deal this year?  I know he had a sore knuckle late in the season.  Was his knuckle bothering him all year?  Or did he have a shoulder injury too? 

I hadn't actually realized he was injured all season.  That makes two years straight that were bad because of injuries?   

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2018, 10:34:33 pm »
I love this idea that a Almora must have been hiding an injury when in fact, he was the exact same player he’s been every year since AA. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #58 on: October 03, 2018, 10:41:25 pm »
Don't worry, Almora's breakout is right around the corner.

Some people on this board will still be expecting that he'll turn into an All Star any day when he's 38 and has been out of baseball for 6 years.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2018, 10:41:29 pm »
I'm pretty confident that the main problem for Contreras was fatigue. As some here have pointed out, he didn't allow himself to have a real offseason last year--he was immediately working on getting ready for the season. He caught far more than any other catcher in baseball this year...I looked it up about a month ago, and based on pitches caught, he was behind the plate for something like 8-10 full games worth more pitches than the second most active catcher in baseball. He had no All Star break.

And the numbers were there for the first 4 months of the season. After the game on August 1, he was hitting .283/.372/.458. The batting average and OBP were career highs (by 1 point and 15 points, respectively). The slugging was down from .494 over his first two seasons. But a part of that was that a few homers had turned into triples (he had 5 triples by that point this year; he had none in 2017 in about the same number of PAs). He had lost a few extra base hits since 2017, but nothing that would throw up any warning signs over a 384 PA sample when all the other numbers looked good. The fact that he just fell off a cliff for the last two months just fits with him wearing down.

Bryant, though...shoulder injuries are tricky. Especially vague shoulder issues that don't really have a clear diagnosis.

I agree.  I am more confident of Contreras coming back to previous norms than I am about Bryant.