Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72226 times)

Robb

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #90 on: October 05, 2018, 06:42:19 pm »
Keep in mind the new CBA is coming when the union is expected to play hardball after giving up the farm in the last deal. If they can get a little relief from the luxury tax that would make things better for the suddenly cash rich Cubs.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #91 on: October 05, 2018, 06:45:33 pm »
The current TV agreement goes through 2019.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2018, 07:09:21 pm »
You almost have to believe the Cubs are going to be serious players on either Harper or Machado, even if things eventually get too rich for their blood. The question is probably which one.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2018, 08:48:03 pm »
I assume they're going to be serious players on both. I don't think there's any circumstance where they sign both--they'll have a preference for one, and they'll have serious enough conversations to be able to quickly pivot to the other if their first choice signs somewhere else.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #94 on: October 05, 2018, 09:20:29 pm »
Jeff will get this closer, but I'm guessing the payroll might increase by ~$40 million just by keeping the guys they've got? 

1.  Hamels: paying him all year, big increase
2.  Bryant A2 arb raises.  (even if Bryant's year wasn't that good.)
3.  Hendricks A2 arb raise.  Big. 
3.  Baez:  A1, big raise relative to $0.65
4.  Schwarber;
Edwards;
Montgomery are all A1 arb guys now; they won't be playing for $0.6K anymore, so those will add up even if they aren't getting Baez A1 salary.
5.  Russell is A2, if they keep him. 
6.  Kintzler, whole year of his salary.

So a whole lot of built-in payroll inflation just to stand pat, before you even start talking Machado or Harper. 

JeffH

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #95 on: October 05, 2018, 09:27:52 pm »
Craig, here are my drunken estimates for our arb eligibles.  You - and others - please weigh in.

OF   Kyle Schwarber     $3,000,000
IF   Kris Bryant     $13,000,000
IF   Addison Russell     $3,600,000
IF   Javier Baez     $4,500,000
IF   Tommy La Stella  $1,500,000
SP   Kyle Hendricks     $8,500,000
RP   Mike Montgomery $2,500,000
RP   Carl Edwards Jr.    $2,000,000

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #96 on: October 05, 2018, 09:29:02 pm »
Russell will be gone. If they can't find a trade for him by the arb deadline, he'll be non-tendered.

I think Kintzler will be gone somehow. Maybe he'll opt out (he has a $5 million player option--he may think he can find more than that). If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands.

They'll ultimately figure out some kind of multi-year deal for Hamels, and it'll cost less next year than just picking up the option.

I think Schwarber, Montgomery, and Edwards are all in play in the right trade this offseason, so one or more of those salaries might not impact the payroll either.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #97 on: October 05, 2018, 09:34:25 pm »
Before option and Arbs are factored in Cots has them $61.393 million below the tax threshold of $206 million. Cot’s had them almost $14 million under the $197 million tax threshold this year.

Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler contracts would about pay for Hamels.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #98 on: October 05, 2018, 09:49:52 pm »
I dont think they'll just release Addison.

If nobody wants him (and somebody will) we'll just keep him.

I do believe we'd like to get rid of him though.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #99 on: October 05, 2018, 10:01:18 pm »
Think some of that is a little too optimistic. 
1.  "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is? 
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange them for somebody else's repulsive contract. 

2.  Cots:  Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're good?  When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5?  I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just asking.  Or maybe I don't understand their spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options.  But, I htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of either Q or Strop. 
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml

3.  Jeff:  Your numbers are usually pretty good.  I might've guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks? 
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11 A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8? 
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #100 on: October 05, 2018, 10:26:01 pm »
If some team thinks Kintzler's true talent is closer to the version that was closing for the Twins a season and a half ago, $5 million isn't much to take on. It also doesn't take too much of an ego for a player with recent success to think he can make more than that on the open market.

I think they can dump a pretty good portion of Chatwood's contract. He was very popular on the free agent market last year, so it's possible some other team will still want to take a chance on him. And if the Cubs eat enough, he's a good buy low guy for someone like the Tigers who have money but few payroll commitments (and could flip him easily at the deadline if he pitches well). Or maybe the Padres or Angels, who have very weak pitching staffs, and should probably prefer a high risk high reward guy to a similarly priced bottom of rotation free agent.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #101 on: October 05, 2018, 10:34:42 pm »
Laughable to think Kintzler would decline his option or that another team would take him. We’ll either have to pay down 3 million or so or throw in a decent prospect to get some other team to absorb that deal.

As for Hamels, I do think some sort of multi-year renegotiated deal is the most likely solution, though it would be great I’d it were no longer than 2 years. Most likely three.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #102 on: October 05, 2018, 11:41:56 pm »
Think some of that is a little too optimistic. 
1.  "Just dumping Chatwood and Kintzler" and "Maybe he'll opt out ... If not, then someone who needs bullpen depth will take him off the Cubs hands"sounds kinda easier than it is? 
*With guaranteed contracts, either you pay them or you exchange them for somebody else's repulsive contract. 

2.  Cots:  Did you check their numbers and are you sure they're good?  When I look at their spreadsheet, they've got Quintana listed at $1 and Strop at $0.5?  I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, just asking.  Or maybe I don't understand their spreadsheet, and that's format for entering options.  But, I htink we can safely say the Cubs aren't likley to opt out of either Q or Strop. 
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VJ9nVwD1eUJabnL9tuQuxJa1K2oM2HXyqJS8Od0pMIo/pubhtml

3.  Jeff:  Your numbers are usually pretty good.  I might've guessed a little higher for each of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks? 
Bryant was already $11 as an A1, so I'd guess he'd get a bigger jump than only $2?
Baez is coming off almost-MVP season; may not match Bryant's $11 A1, but I'd think he'd be somewhat nearer $11 than $4.8? 
Hendricks too, I'd think he'll be variably north of $8.5. 

1) I mean it will take prospects. A non-contender could take Kintzler and a prospect for a $5 million chance he could get flipped at the deadline. The prospect cost wouldn’t be that high. He can at least eat innings for them. Chatwood at 2/$25 isn’t horrible for a fifth starter and if you think you can fix his control issues he could have some value. He’d take a better prospect, but you aren’t looking at a top prospect.
2) MLB Trade rumors usually does pretty bang on arb numbers in a month or two. I’m not sure how the options are handled for the luxury tax. Contracts are AAV so Quintana was $4.2 million luxury tax number vs his $8.85 million salary. I think his option is $9 million ish so I’m not sure if that gets averaged vs it being just considered a 1 year contract.

The numbers I took where from the luxury tax tab which is different than the salary tab. I’m not too concerned about the Cubs having salary limit vs them going too high on the luxury tax.

wmljohn

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #103 on: October 06, 2018, 08:05:29 am »
I say the Cubs sign both Machado and Harper
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #104 on: October 06, 2018, 11:13:18 am »
Good luck with that one.