Based on my first calculation, the Cubs will have a luxury tax figure of around $227 without bringing in any outside talent. The luxury tax threshold for 2019 is $206.
Craig Jeff Initial Payroll Projection Luxury Tax $$$$. (I'm trying to put in some keywords so I can search and find his post weeks from now!
1. deeg and br, I don't think I could actually fault the Cubs too badly as cheap for going to battle >$20+ over the luxury line.
2. Jeff can answer better, but they're going to need to spend some additional spread-it-around cash, no? [Maybe a couple of relief guys, maybe a LaStella replacement; maybe a Russell replacement; possibly a Caratini replacement...]
3. Are any thrift guys (Caratini, La Stella, and Bote) or minor leaguers ready to replace a movable salary? Not sure. With no farm system, it's hard to replace a salary you might trade. And salaries like Heyward, Kinsler, Chatwood, and Darvish nobody wants. So, kinda hard to free up any spending money.
4. Theo presumably plans for a sharply programmed salary spiral for the next couple of years. Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Theo ***hopes*** they'll be earning big jumps next year. The only way not is if they play badly.
In a sense they're kinda stuck. Building with the young guys gave a window of free years for each of them; that window has closed for all but Happ. The internal salaries will continue to inflate through the arbitration years. And with no farm system, buying talent is their avenue to new talent. But already being way over the luxury tax, and with the payroll programmed to continue to spiral during upcoming arb years, it's going to be hard to just keep buying their wants.
I think it's going to be some tinkering, going back to battle with largely the same personnel, and hoping better health will make it work out better.