Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72232 times)

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #345 on: November 02, 2018, 05:46:01 pm »
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #346 on: November 02, 2018, 06:01:06 pm »
Mooney has an article on The Athletic that says it's very unlikely that the Cubs will really pursue Harper (or Machado) this offseason because of financial reasons. Olney tweeted something along the same lines this morning.

https://theathletic.com/630609/2018/11/02/what-the-cole-hamels-option-means-for-the-cubs-and-bryce-harper/

Given Theo's postseason press conference about how the lineup was broken and how they needed to start seeing performance instead of potential, I don't see how they can just bring back the same group of players and try again. If Harper and Machado aren't options, I don't really see how they transform the broken lineup in any meaningful way without adding at least two hitters. But the only other free agent hitters that I see as a potential fit are the second tier outfielders--Brantley, Pollock, and McCutchen. Brantley and Pollock are scary because of their injury histories, and McCutchen is scary because of how much he has already declined.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out. Maybe Theo can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to move 2/3 of the money tied up in the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #347 on: November 02, 2018, 06:21:33 pm »
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.
I keep thinking back to when teams did not need a 13-man pitching staff.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #348 on: November 02, 2018, 06:38:30 pm »
I think you'd have to get down to a 10 man pitching staff for there to be a role for Gore on a 25 man roster. I think we lose sight of how bad he is overall because he is so good at the one thing he can do. He'd easily be the worst hitting position player in the majors--even in AAA, he has a .575 career OPS.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #349 on: November 02, 2018, 06:55:35 pm »
I hate to see Smyly go.  That may really bite us.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #350 on: November 02, 2018, 07:00:23 pm »
Mooney has an article on The Athletic that says it's very unlikely that the Cubs will really pursue Harper (or Machado) this offseason because of financial reasons. Olney tweeted something along the same lines this morning.

https://theathletic.com/630609/2018/11/02/what-the-cole-hamels-option-means-for-the-cubs-and-bryce-harper/

Given Theo's postseason press conference about how the lineup was broken and how they needed to start seeing performance instead of potential, I don't see how they can just bring back the same group of players and try again. If Harper and Machado aren't options, I don't really see how they transform the broken lineup in any meaningful way without adding at least two hitters. But the only other free agent hitters that I see as a potential fit are the second tier outfielders--Brantley, Pollock, and McCutchen. Brantley and Pollock are scary because of their injury histories, and McCutchen is scary because of how much he has already declined.

It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out. Maybe Theo can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a way to move 2/3 of the money tied up in the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts.

If that is indeed the case, either Theo is operating under financial restrictions he wasn't expecting to when he made those comments, or his plan is to trade core guys in order to reshape the lineup.

Either way, with the income the club generates and a huge new TV deal coming in a year, that would be pretty disappointing.  There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in the same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #351 on: November 02, 2018, 07:45:49 pm »
There's really no reason the Cubs shouldn't be operating in the same salary zip code as the likes of Boston, NYY and LAD.

In the Cubs' defense, Fangraphs had an article today about team payrolls. Once arb raises are factored in, it appears the Cubs have the highest 2019 payroll in baseball right now.

That said...I was listening to The Athletic's Cubs podcast earlier, and I agree with what Sharma had to say--the Cubs are at a position right now where they should be willing to blow past all luxury tax limits. They are about to get the new TV contract money, and they'll have a lot of money coming off the payroll in the next two years (Zobrist, Morrow, Strop, and Cishek after 2019; the entire rotation (including Chatwood) outside of Darvish after 2020).

The competitive window is as open as it's going to be for the next two years, so go all out for Harper now and give him an opt out in 2-3 years.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #352 on: November 02, 2018, 07:59:48 pm »
By the way, we've heard some speculation regarding Whit Merrifield in the last 2-3 weeks, but nothing concrete. But the Cubs' apparent lack of money really makes me wonder if he might become one of the front office's top targets (assuming they buy his development as a hitter over the last two seasons). He's still a year away from arbitration, but the fact that he'll be 30 next season limits his trade value. And Dayton Moore really seems opposed to a full rebuild, so the Royals might actually match up with the players the Cubs have to offer.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #353 on: November 02, 2018, 08:49:39 pm »
I think that there's a decent chance that no one will claim Gore. 40 man roster spots are too valuable for good teams to waste on a guy who can't do anything but steal bases. And bad teams don't really need a running specialist they're only going to use in September. So he might ultimately agree to stay with the Cubs.

If I were in charge of a bad team, I would claim Gore and keep him until the trading deadline to see of a playoff team like the Cubs (hopefully) will trade something decent for him.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #354 on: November 02, 2018, 08:55:59 pm »
He netted cash this year.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #355 on: November 02, 2018, 09:55:22 pm »
Based on my first calculation, the Cubs will have a luxury tax figure of around $227 without bringing in any outside talent.  The luxury tax threshold for 2019 is $206.

Craig Jeff Initial Payroll Projection Luxury Tax $$$$.  (I'm trying to put in some keywords so I can search and find his post weeks from now!  :):):)) 

1.  deeg and br, I don't think I could actually fault the Cubs too badly as cheap for going to battle >$20+ over the luxury line. 

2.  Jeff can answer better, but they're going to need to spend some additional spread-it-around cash, no?  [Maybe a couple of relief guys, maybe a LaStella replacement; maybe a Russell replacement; possibly a Caratini replacement...] 

3.  Are any thrift guys (Caratini, La Stella, and Bote) or minor leaguers ready to replace a movable salary?  Not sure. With no farm system, it's hard to replace a salary you might trade.  And salaries like Heyward, Kinsler, Chatwood, and Darvish nobody wants.  So, kinda hard to free up any spending money. 

4.  Theo presumably plans for a sharply programmed salary spiral for the next couple of years.  Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Schwarber, Almora, Hendricks, Theo ***hopes*** they'll be earning big jumps next year.  The only way not is if they play badly. 

In a sense they're kinda stuck.  Building with the young guys gave a window of free years for each of them; that window has closed for all but Happ.  The internal salaries will continue to inflate through the arbitration years.  And with no farm system, buying talent is their avenue to new talent.  But already being way over the luxury tax, and with the payroll programmed to continue to spiral during upcoming arb years, it's going to be hard to just keep buying their wants.

I think it's going to be some tinkering, going back to battle with largely the same personnel, and hoping better health will make it work out better.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #356 on: November 02, 2018, 10:08:21 pm »
Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could be a possibility. I’d rather just keep him and try to fix him but that may not be an option.

Craig, the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA because Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent. If you believe he’s the guy that could make the difference and choose to sit out because of financial concerns, that’d be a real shame.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 10:11:58 pm by Deeg »

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #357 on: November 02, 2018, 10:43:19 pm »
I really think some bad team with money (maybe the Tigers?) should trade for Chatwood and take on a significant portion of his contract. They have nothing to lose, but he has great stuff and real upside in the very unlikely scenario that he figures out his command.

The alternative is giving someone like Jeremy Hellickson $6 million with the hope that he'll be good enough to get some other team's 17th best prospect at the deadline. Why not bet on Chatwood's upside instead?

Packaging Edwards or Russell to move Chatwood’s contract could be a possibility.

I don't think packaging Russell with anyone helps. He's just not that good at anything but defense, and it's a big PR hit to add him. I'd bet a cheap steak dinner that he's non-tendered in a few weeks. But Theo's good, maybe he'll convince some other team to take him.

the issue for me is that this is a unicorn year for FA because Harper at his age is a unicorn free agent.

The real unicorn was Yelich last offseason. I'm never giving this up--Cubs should've been all in on him last year.

brs2

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #358 on: November 02, 2018, 10:44:21 pm »
In the absence of these articles, I would not necessarily read the Smyly trade as a sign of financial limitation. The Hamels option was very unique, and gave the Cubs momentary $6mm leverage over the Rangers. With a Hamels signing, Smyly’s opportunities to start with the Cubs are greatly reduced, and $7 is a high price for a complete unknown in the bullpen. Plus because of Smyly’s uncertainty / risk, relying on him in 2019 would make it more difficult to move other pieces (and the Cubs may have felt the need to bring in another BOR starter FA). …. So at the end of the day, the Cubs increase payroll by only $7 ($14 for Hamels - $7 from Smyly), give themselves more depth / flexibility in the rotation, clear a roster space, and move an unnecessary contract to perhaps the only team which had any incentive to take him with his risk / salary (without bundling a better piece with him).  For the Rangers, they essentially get the Smyly spin of the wheel for $1. And Smyly gets a better chance to start. Win-Win-Win…..
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guest61

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #359 on: November 03, 2018, 02:34:59 am »
This team can be fixed without investing 300 million dollars into one single player.

I'd like to see us look into acquiring a real leadoff man and another closer.