Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72265 times)

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #435 on: November 06, 2018, 07:43:49 am »
Quote from: Bruce Miles
Speaking of LeMahieu, he might look good coming back to the Cubs, who traded him in December 2011 in a clunker of a deal that brought third baseman Ian Stewart to Chicago. Stewart played in only 55 games with the Cubs, batting .201 while LeMahieu is a two-time all-star.
Miles isn't doing anything more than thinking out loud and does not suggest a trade might be in the work.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #436 on: November 06, 2018, 08:52:24 am »
and then we can go get that Brock guy and Joe Carter and Josh Donaldson and

davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #437 on: November 06, 2018, 09:31:42 am »
The quote was broken in the second half.

Quite often, people hear (and read) what they want to hear.  Saying the offense was broken in the second half is quite different than saying that the offense is broken (permanently).  I haven't seen the numbers, but I suspect that if Bryant and Contreras had years in 2018 similar to those in 2017, we wouldn't be talking about broken offenses.  And there is good reason to expect that both Bryant and Contreras will return to what has been typical performances prior to last year.  I don't think that this front office is planning to make MAJOR changes to the offense (Harper or Machado) unless the market drops to the point where they think it is a bargain, as happened with Darvish last year.

I think that they will be looking to add a middle-of-the-rotation starter (a Chatsworth type) and perhaps a mid-level offensive player such as Lemehieu, but I don't look for blockbuster moves unless one falls into their lap.

This team won 95 games last year with offensive problems that hopefully are non-recurring.  This is hardly the time to clean house.

ben

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #438 on: November 06, 2018, 09:43:16 am »
Agree, DaveP.  Well said.  95 wins doesn't suggest it's time to "clean house" and the way I'm reading the tea leaves, Theo agrees.   In fact, just hearing a clip of what Theo said about "Addy," I think Theo will give him a shot to prove he's rehabilitated and provide him a 2nd chance.

One of the hard lessons MLB (and life) teaches is that change doesn't always work out to be better!

IF Bryant is Bryant going forward (as Theo believes he will be) and Contreras hits better next season (as Theo believes he will), the offense shouldn't be "broken" in 2019.  Seems to me Theo also believes Schwarber and Happ will be better next season, which feels realistic to me.

You have to give up something to get something.  I'd be thrilled if we sign Harper, but I'm not aware of all of the implications of making such a HUGE financial move.  Theo will be.  If we don't get Harper or another top player, I'll be sanguine in the knowledge that Theo looked at the situation 10 different ways and made a careful, reasonable assessment...which may turn out best or not. 

His crystal ball isn't perfect either.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #439 on: November 06, 2018, 09:45:26 am »
Dave, don't think rotation of the caliber or magnitude of Chatwood last year. 
1.  They've already got 6:  Hamel, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish for rotation, Montgomery as #6. 
2.  Given other needs, they won't invest much of their limited resources towards rotation.
3.  Smyly seemed a nice fit as a contingency #7 starter, and to address the acute need for lefty reliever.  But they contract-dumped him to save $7M.  That suggests how little they want to spend on rotation depth. 

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #440 on: November 06, 2018, 09:50:57 am »
Dave, don't think rotation of the caliber or magnitude of Chatwood last year. 
1.  They've already got 6:  Hamel, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Darvish for rotation, Montgomery as #6. 
2.  Given other needs, they won't invest much of their limited resources towards rotation.
3.  Smyly seemed a nice fit as a contingency #7 starter, and to address the acute need for lefty reliever.  But they contract-dumped him to save $7M.  That suggests how little they want to spend on rotation depth. 

I'm guessing the Cubs hope that Albert Alzolay will provide some additional backup for the starting rotation.  Before his injury last year, wasn't that the expectation for 2018?

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #441 on: November 06, 2018, 10:09:15 am »
....His crystal ball isn't perfect either.

This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #442 on: November 06, 2018, 10:15:21 am »
I'm guessing the Cubs hope that Albert Alzolay will provide some additional backup for the starting rotation.  Before his injury last year, wasn't that the expectation for 2018?

Agree, that was and is a hope.  That would really help, if he could emerge as a good pitcher and be available as needed.  Cubs really haven't had that yet during Hoyer's run with the Cubs; to have a capable prospect ready and waiting in case a need arises would be really fun.  I'd say the same could go for helping in relief, too.  **IF** he's a good pitcher, I don't see why he'd not perhaps be able to pick up some innings in relief if/when the need arises. 

That said, Adbert had a 4.76 ERA in Iowa, and was a lot worse than that after a couple of good outings at the beginning.  So he's probably got some significant improvement needed to become a big-league asset.  Hopefully that happens, creating some new talent from the farm could really change a lot. 

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #443 on: November 06, 2018, 10:44:10 am »
This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 

From the time Theo came to the Cubs he has cautioned that not all prospects will work out and that mistakes are inevitable.  It is truly astonishing that Cub prospects other than Soler (Baez, Almora, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Happ - not to mention Torres & Jimenez) have all worked out, either as decent/good major leaguers or as outright stars. That not all have or will become stars should be no surprise. I mean, really?

That Theo and his colleagues may have erred in some of their projections is certainly no surprise to them. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of us either. That's the nature of projections. And it certainly shouldn't diminish our appreciation of the extraordinary quality of talent in the front office.  Let's not over-react.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2018, 10:46:31 am by Ron »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #444 on: November 06, 2018, 10:46:06 am »
Other thought, is that I don't think they really anticipated spending the big money on Darvish last year.  I think the long-term plan had been to spend less then, and have more discretionary money available this year and going forward for the great FA crop.  But I wonder if to some extent they perceived an opportunity with Darvish, and decided to strike while the opportunity was there?  Even if that might mean taking themselves out of some of the big-ticket opportunities available now? 

They might have also anticipated producing a bundle of millions in playoff revenue, which didn't quite actualize with just one wildcard game? 

Yu was probably an "unplanned" big-ticket, and the same was probably true for Heyward?  By all accounts, Heyward was an unplanned, over-budget expenditure that required special approval from Crane K and Ricketts, etc..  But I think they just saw Heyward and Darvish as such unique opportunities that they maybe borrowed forward to get those guys that they liked so much, when opportunity unexpectedly opened itself. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #445 on: November 06, 2018, 12:59:50 pm »
The Cubs just picked up a $20 million option on a pitcher and they are above the CBT, they aren't exactly being cheap.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #446 on: November 06, 2018, 01:17:27 pm »
This may be true.  His crystal ball had Russell as a quality character and a middle-of-the-order hitter.   His crystal ball had (and perhaps still has) Schwarber as a really gifted hitter, whose competitiveness and will would make him a big-game star; rather than the player with perhaps historically bad in-the-clutch hitting productivity.  His ball had Almora's power developing into a good HR-hitter.  He foresaw Soler as a huge, middle-of-the-order impact bat.  Of course his ball had Heyward being a really good, asset hitter who'd hit with more power and productivity than in his St. Louis and Atlanta years.  And his crystal ball had each of Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Russell getting better and better as hitters with time. 

I kinda worry that Theo's talent-evaluation is somewhat cloudy, and that he's struggled to evaluate what the guys really are rather than what he'd once imagined them becoming.  That may also relate to the urgency perspective.  It may be that Happ, Schwarber, and Russell have a lot of trouble hitting strikes for reasons other than not trying hard enough or lacking urgency. 

That might also cloud perspective on roster-revision.  If you over-rate the talents of your guys, you may think at press-conference that you've got excellent trade value; but if the rest of baseball doesn't agree, you don't have the opportunity to restructure your roster the way you thought you'd be able to. 


You seem to believe that at the age of 24 - 26, these players have all reached their peak.  Believe it or not, some players actually get better after they pass the mid twenties.

Russell already WAS a middle of the order hitter, with 21 home runs and 95 RBIs at age 22 or so.  Last year he was plagued by injuries.  Will he return to his 2016 form?  I have no idea.  But it seems to be a little early to decide definitely that he will not.

I don't recall anyone with the expectation that Almora would develop into a power hitter.  As I see it, he is pretty much as was expected - a very good defensive center fielder with a decent offensive capability.  His career OPS is currently .738, not insubstantial for an excellent defensive center fielder, and again, occasionally, players actually get better after age 24.

Schwarber had an OPS of .823, and provided left handed power to a very weak lineup.  He has not performed as a superstar, but that is a pretty high bar to set for any prospect.  Of course, since he is 25, it is probably too late for his hitting to improve very much.

Happ should be written off, since after two seasons, he has yet to OPS higher than .842.  What hope could there possibly be for him.

They obviously missed on Soler, and Chatwood has been horrible, as well as some others.  I don't know of any front office that has not had their share of really big misses.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #447 on: November 06, 2018, 01:28:44 pm »
I've seen several reports on Twitter today that the Mariners might be tearing down. Any fits there for the Cubs? Obviously Haniger and Diaz fit, but some of the reports say that those are the two players they plan to hold onto (and I don't think the Cubs could afford them anyway). Maybe Jean Segura? He'd make it that much easier to walk away from Russell.

There was also a new Twitter report today that the Diamondbacks are willing to listen on everyone, even Goldschmidt. Ketel Marte is somewhat interesting (in part because he helps make Russell go away), and David Peralta is probably a better fit than any of the second tier OF free agents.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #448 on: November 06, 2018, 01:43:21 pm »
Arizona just exercised a $14.5 million team option on Paul Goldschmidt who will be a free agent after the 2019 season.  Goldy will not be in Harper or Machado territory in 2020 but he won't be far behind.


method

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #449 on: November 06, 2018, 01:45:07 pm »
He is a lot older then Machado or Harper.