Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72258 times)

Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #510 on: November 08, 2018, 07:17:39 pm »
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #511 on: November 08, 2018, 07:24:47 pm »
Bleacher Nation was talking about either Chatwood (similar $ left, but would save the Cubs $3 million in AAV) or Heyward for him.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #512 on: November 08, 2018, 07:32:21 pm »
Yeah...to be clear, Gordon would be awful. I don't know if I made that clear in my first post. He was awful this year.

I'd say Miller is pretty uninspiring too at this point. He looks like Cleveland may have broken him with his work loads in 2016-17.

Yeah, that's possible.  But if the knee is healthy (a big if) I think there's a decent chance he returns to something close to his dominant form (which was about as good as it gets).  I'd be a lot more comfortable on a two-year deal, though.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #513 on: November 08, 2018, 07:34:04 pm »
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?

I wouldn't make that deal.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #514 on: November 08, 2018, 07:37:40 pm »
No way they’d take Heyward.

There was a lot of interest in Chatwood last year. Even though he was terrible last year, he clearly has great stuff. The Cubs should be able to find some non-contending team who is willing to take on half his contract to try to catch lightning in a bottle instead of spending similar money on Jeremy Hellickson.

Gordon is pure dead money. He’s a one tool player (at least on offense—I haven’t looked up his defensive stats). And his one tool is the one that seems to fade earliest. There’s a good chance he’s just be an expensive version of Gore at this point, which is a waste of a roster spot before September.

I’d rather take my chances that they could salvage more out of a pure dump of Chatwood.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #515 on: November 08, 2018, 09:15:55 pm »
What if it was Gordon for Chatwood?

Gordon was a 3.6 fWAR guy in 2017. 200 hits, over 100 runs scored, 60 SBs. That’s a good season.

Of course—like Chatwood—was bad in 2018.

Kind of an interesting idea, actually, especially at a lower AAV for luxury tax. After all, talking bad contract for bad contract here. 

But, as a versatile bench guy, of course—-not as a regular. Depends what Cubs do, if anything, with some current guys because only room for three non-catcher bench guys. Would think might have more value than La Stella, for example, if that’s the choice.

If the same Chatwood shows up in 2019, you can’t use him in any role. I don’t know. Depends how badly want to get rid of Chatwood.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #516 on: November 08, 2018, 09:33:54 pm »
Gordon 2017 is an example of what happens when a guy that depends on high BABIP doesn’t get it. In a bad contract swap as bench guy it could be worse. I’d at least consider him for Chatwood.

The Mariners really do have some interesting relievers outside of Diaz. Nicasio and Colome from the right side and Pazos from the left.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #517 on: November 08, 2018, 09:37:04 pm »

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #518 on: November 08, 2018, 10:02:06 pm »
Gordon is precisely the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP.

That’s his game. For example:

MLB average BABIP in 2018 was .296.

Gordon career BABIP is .338.

So, yes, some bad luck is going to impact his value (.304 BABIP in 2018).

But, generally, he figures to be way, way, higher BABIP than league average.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #519 on: November 08, 2018, 10:12:46 pm »
His legs are going, and that's only going to get worse.  And they're really all he has.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #520 on: November 08, 2018, 10:19:37 pm »
Jean Segura is also the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP. And he's actually good. He also has defensive value, moderate power, and a below-average-but-acceptable-walk-rate to fall back on if he slows down. Dee Gordon has none of that.

If the Cubs are going to trade with the Mariners for a player with a contract they might be willing to move, target him. Otherwise, they have nothing to offer that the Cubs can afford and/or should want.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #521 on: November 08, 2018, 10:22:23 pm »
Cub FO seems to respond to player exit interviews.  Chili is gone.  Hickey is gone.   Wonder if what they said about Maddon is the reason for no contract extension at this time.   I think the guys love a lot about him, but something's not 100% kosher.   Seems like blasphemy to wonder about it though.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #522 on: November 08, 2018, 10:39:41 pm »
If the Cubs are playing possum for Harper etc then they're doing a heck of a job because even other agents (not Boras) at the meetings don't believe they will be spending big.  Time will tell.--Jesse Rogers

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #523 on: November 08, 2018, 10:47:36 pm »
Just because he’s fast doesn’t mean he is going to be a high BABIP hitter. He hits the ball on the ground and his average exit velocity is barely better than Billy Hamilton.

Of the top 30 BABIP leaders last year only 9 had an ISO below .150, only 3 had an ISO below or equal to .110. That was Matt Duffy, Lorenzo Cain and Mallex Smith.


CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #524 on: November 08, 2018, 10:58:02 pm »
Jean Segura is also the type of player that ordinarily figures to have a high BABIP. And he's actually good. He also has defensive value, moderate power, and a below-average-but-acceptable-walk-rate to fall back on if he slows down.

I’d just like to point out that Almora has a higher career BB% and higher career ISO than Segura. Segura has had 2 positive UZR/150 in 7 seasons and 4 total DRS in his career. Almora already has 10.
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