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Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72427 times)

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #765 on: November 26, 2018, 01:30:42 pm »
Read an interesting suggestion over on the PSD forum (assuming they know what they're talking about regarding the luxury tax): Cubs send Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing to the rebuilding Diamondbacks for Yasmany Tomas. The money is pretty much a wash (though the Cubs' half is concentrated more in the first year).

Why it might make sense for the Cubs: Tomas has been DFA'd and is no longer on their 40 man. Therefore, his salary doesn't count for luxury tax purposes. If the Cubs are more concerned about reducing luxury tax implications than saving real money, it basically removes about $21 million from their 2019 luxury tax commitment.

Why it might make sense for the Diamondbacks: they're rebuilding, and Tomas is pure dead money. Assuming they won't have any 2019 luxury tax issues, they're probably better off with a possible lottery ticket in Chatwood and two middle relievers who could be moved if they're decent in the first half.
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CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #766 on: November 26, 2018, 01:47:21 pm »
Trading used toilets.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #767 on: November 26, 2018, 02:47:44 pm »
Clarkin back the White Sox on a waiver claim......
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #768 on: November 26, 2018, 03:37:57 pm »
Hinske going to the D-Backs as an assistant hitting coach.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #769 on: November 26, 2018, 04:59:19 pm »
From Levine:

Quote
Joe Maddon told the Tampa Times he will spend more time on the field with actual coaching and less time with Media obligations . Maddon is responding to a challenge by the front office.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2018, 05:22:07 pm by Deeg »
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Ron Green

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #770 on: November 26, 2018, 06:17:08 pm »
Quote from: brjones on November 26, 2018, 08:41:45 am
I still don't think there's any collusion. I think front offices in general are smarter so they're not wasting money. And the CBA rewards not spending, so there are more free agents available than there are openings for them at the prices they're asking. Teams know they can wait out the market and get a discount price in January or February because guys like McCutchen, Pollock, and Keuchel aren't going to sit out a season.


If teams KNOW they can wait until January or February AND that guys like McCutchen, Pollock and Keuchel are going to be around.... well, you would have just proven collusion.

The only way for teams to KNOW such players will not be around is if other teams, all of them, have agreed they are not going to sign them before then.

Otherwise it is impossible to KNOW they are not going to be around.... and even if all other GMs have said they are not going to sign them, it is hard to be sure some over anxious GM, wanting to get an edge on the competition, will not break ranks and sign them.  That is the real reason collusion is unlikely to exist, the fact that other teams, each wanting to be a winner, will break ranks and sign someone ahead of the time others agreed to wait until, or for just marginally more than the others had agreed they would hold contracts beneath.

Competition is the strongest assurance against collusion.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #771 on: November 26, 2018, 07:20:15 pm »
I don’t want to speak for BR, but I think he was trying to say that baseball front offices are becoming more similar in how they value players. They don’t need to get together and say they aren’t going to sign players for more than X dollars, they just realize that is generally a bad idea. Unfortunately the CBA, agents and players haven’t adapted to how front offices value players so they will be around later for teams to pick up on cheaper deals later on.

If you aren’t hitting free agency at 26, players might be better off taking Josh Donaldson type deals. Higher AAV for shorter terms and betting on their health.   

The union is going to have to find a way to get their members paid earlier in their careers and that will hurt some of the players in the short term. It will be amazing if baseball doesn’t go on strike with the next CBA.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #772 on: November 26, 2018, 07:45:40 pm »
You did a good job speaking for me. There’s no intentional collusion, but front offices are generally on the same page on how they value players.

On The Athletic, Mooney thinks Chris Denorfia could end up being the Cubs’ new Assistant Hitting Coach.
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Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #773 on: November 26, 2018, 07:54:09 pm »
Did he ever know how to hit?
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #774 on: November 26, 2018, 08:37:59 pm »
It might seem that good players aren't going to take reasonable offers this early.  The agents aren't colluding.  Just figuring that some teams holding their bullets for Harper/Machado won't get them, at which point they will shoot for players who are good but not THAT good.  So players wanting max bucks are waiting for more bidders. 


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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #775 on: November 26, 2018, 08:51:38 pm »
Denofria had a career wRC+ of 103. That surprised me.

The Braves DFA’d Adam McCreery, a 6-9 LHRP, that just screams Cubs waiver claim. He averaged 92 in his 1 inning in the big leagues, but the fastball plays up with his extension. He strikes people out and has serious control issues.
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craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #776 on: November 26, 2018, 09:10:53 pm »
Serious control issues?  That's So Cub!
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DelMarFan

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #777 on: November 26, 2018, 09:16:21 pm »
Lotta tooth fairy enthusiasts in here.
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #778 on: November 26, 2018, 09:58:02 pm »
Quote from: brjones on November 26, 2018, 01:30:42 pm

Why it might make sense for the Cubs: Tomas has been DFA'd and is no longer on their 40 man. Therefore, his salary doesn't count for luxury tax purposes. If the Cubs are more concerned about reducing luxury tax implications than saving real money, it basically removes about $21 million from their 2019 luxury tax commitment.


That is the first time I have heard the claim that luxury tax is only counted for those players on the 40 man roster.  It might be accurate, but it would certainly leave the system open for gaming it, and they have gone to great lengths to prevent gaming, such as making the computation the AAV of the entire contract, not merely the amount of money a player gets in any specific year.

However, it the claim is true, that would certainly be a reasonable trade for both teams.

Has any severely injured player with a long term contract merely been released, in order to avoid the luxury tax?  I don't recall any, but it might have happened without comment by the media?
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #779 on: November 26, 2018, 10:57:11 pm »
Quote from: DelMarFan on November 26, 2018, 09:16:21 pm
Lotta tooth fairy enthusiasts in here.

Nothing under their pillows though, I bet.
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