Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72299 times)

Jes Beard

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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1351 on: January 07, 2019, 09:34:08 am »
Rosenthal repeats what we've heard before--the Cubs will have to move money if they even want to sign a mid-level reliever:

https://theathletic.com/753212/2019/01/07/rosenthal-why-the-cubs-are-in-a-bind-the-meaning-behind-the-mets-moves-ex-manager-finds-interesting-new-gig/

I'm expecting a third place, non-playoff finish this year. This team had several needs in the lineup and the bullpen. Unless there is a big change in direction, they're just not going to address them. Also, each time we get a report like this, the decision to tender Russell becomes more confusing and indefensible.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1352 on: January 07, 2019, 11:10:19 am »
I generally like Rosenthal, but this strikes me as a pretty typical off-season let's-figure-out-something-to-write-about-when there's-nothing-to-write-about story. It's not like Rosenthal hasn't ever done this sort of thing before.

Saying that "major league sources" claim that the Cubs would need to "to clear money to sign even a modestly priced reliever such as free-agent righty Adam Warren" seems dubious to me. 

We'll see, I guess.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1353 on: January 07, 2019, 11:37:04 am »
I think it is also a roster crunch.  To add anybody to the bullpen they need to get rid of Kintzler, Duensing or Chatwood.  Considering that they are over the tax that will cost them a multiple of the salary.  The same goes for position players, they don't have the roster space.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1354 on: January 07, 2019, 11:44:09 am »
From Epstein piece on Saturday that Ron linked: 

'Epstein seems confident in the Cubs' roster as it currently stands."They're a motivated and determined bunch," he said. "I wouldn't bet against us."'

This has been a consistent perspective from Theo since the season ended, that the roster is excellent and capable, and that improved heart and determination will result in more success.  (I also get ben's point, that whether they finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in 2019, we'll always have 2016, and we have no right to ask for equal or more success...) 

We'll see how the season plays out.  I admit I have some hesitation, but maybe Theo knows best that more determination will result in improved performance?  Several thoughts:
1.  Arguing that guys will be better due to physical reasons, that's a completely reasonable/plausible argument to make.  I get the view that Rizzo had health issues, Contreras was overworked, Bryant was gone, Russell missed time and played hurt, and that the late-season run exhausted them physically.  But, that isn't really Theo's "determination" argument!
2.  Russell's off-field issues make him a unique case.   
3.  But for guys like Schwarber/Happ/Heyward/Bote, I struggle with the idea that issues are about determination/will/heart rather than just simply hitting talent?  We've gotten much positive buzz on their heart and will and want-to; are their limits as hitters really about want-to and trying-harder, as opposed to physical/talent factors that will not be much improved by being more determined and wanting to get more hits this year?  I'm not sure how I see "determination" as being the solution for them? 
4.  Or, is maybe the "determination" issue from Theo less about determination during in-game 4-minute AB's, and more about wine-women-and-song?  In Theo's mind does he expect "motivated and determined" guys to cut back on booze, drugs, affairs, and nightlife, so that minds and bodies will be better prepared for games?  I wouldn't think that's what he's talking about, but who knows. 

Anyway, I think it will be an interesting story to see how Theo and the players speak of the "determination" impact this year, and to see whether there are some shifts in performance.  Obviously the cause for improvements will be hard to determine:  If a guy hits better, is it because he and new batting coach made physical adjustment?  Is it because he's more determined and wants to get hits more? Is it because he's a little healthier this year?  Too complex an interplay to ever determine cause-effect. 

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1355 on: January 07, 2019, 12:04:53 pm »
I feel that the Cubs need some infusion of additional offensive talent.  Not necessarily on the level of Harper or Machado, but more than just marginal improvement.  Relying on the existing players to perform better is not sufficient.  I would be surprised and disappointed if Theo doesn't feel the same way.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1356 on: January 07, 2019, 12:35:23 pm »
I think it is also a roster crunch.  To add anybody to the bullpen they need to get rid of Kintzler, Duensing or Chatwood.  ..

Last year Maddon went with 8-man pen, and had 9 for a while.  I think you're envisioning a 7-man pen this spring?

Roster (with Russell) could look like:
Players 13:
  8 starters (including Russell)
  5 subs:  Caratini, Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote
  Next man up:  Zagunis type guy?

Pitchers 12
   5 starters
   7 relievers:  Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Montomery (4 locks)  Kintzler, Duensing, Chatwood (3 bubbly guys)
   DL:  Morrow (for a while)
   Next man up:  Rosario, Maples, Norwood, Underwood, Tseng, guys released from other team's 40-man rosters

Obviously to start both Russell and Morrow will not be available.  So that would put roster at 12+12, with guys like Zagunis, Rosario, and Maples hoping to snag the last spot. 

Suppose after a month Morrow comes back, as Theo hoped on Saturday; and Russell too.  That would then put roster at 13+13, perhaps "crunched"?  At this stage, I'm not sure who would get cut.  Or, if you signed somebody, who would get cut? 

Couple thoughts:
1.  Bote has options, I'd have no problem sending him down if need be. 
2.  The odds that no pitcher or player need to go on the DL by the time MOrrow and Russell come back seem slim. 
3.  One view might be that the Morrow DL would give an extra month to sift through Kintzler/Duensing/Chatwood? 
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 12:53:15 pm by craig »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1357 on: January 07, 2019, 01:04:58 pm »
Last year Maddon went with 8-man pen, and had 9 for a while.  I think you're envisioning a 7-man pen this spring?

Roster (with Russell) could look like:
Players 13:
8 starters (including Russell)
5 subs:  Caratini, Zobrist Descalzo, Happ, Bote

Pitchers 12

The Cubs have 13 pitchers already under contract/control

Starters
Lester ($27.5 million)
Darvisn ($20 million)
Hamels ($20 million)
Quintana ($10.5 million)
Hendricks (ARB2)
Bullpen
Marrow ($9 million)
Strop ($6.25 million)
Ciskek ($6.5 million
Edwards (ARB1)
Chatwood ($12.5 million)
Montgomery (ARB1)
Kintler ($5 million)
Duensing ($3.5 million)

That is 13 pitchers already under contract, so to bring somebody in somebody has to go. 

The Cubs are currently sitting at $228 million for the CBT, so they are in the second tier already, that is a 32% tax on any overage. 

To cut Duensing it is $4.2million.
Kintzler is $6 million.
Chatwood is $15 million for this year alone.

Then you need to get the replacement. so for Adam Warren who is expected to get between $5-6 million/year with the CBT it is $6.6-7.92 million + the person you are cutting.  So adding Warren would be $10.8 million on the low end.  Just adding Chavez would have been $9.48 million.

I might be wrong, but I think the money is there to add people, they just need to clear space on the roster first and just cutting somebody isn't a great use of money, because at some point the Cubs do have a limit to what they can spend.  So I could see a scenario where the Cubs say to a free agent pitcher we need to move somebody before we can sign you and the agents take it as the Cubs have no money and have to clear dollars to sign my guy.  Just like replacing La Stella with Descalso.  Did the Cubs have to move La Stella because of money or because they didn't have space for him?


craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1358 on: January 07, 2019, 01:05:44 pm »
Seems to me that if your pitching staff has Montgomery, Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing as your 9-12 guys, and Rosario and Maples as next man up the day Edwards has some shoulder stiffness or Darvish has some elbow stuff, that's a really vulnerable staff. 

Given how Maddon doesn't like to trust relievers, giving him only a 7-man pen in which Chatwood, Edwards, Kintzler, Duensing, and Montgomery make up 5/7 of the pen, I admit that's kinda scary.  Admit I'm also a little scared that after getting use so heavily last year, that Cishek might come back and look more like Kintzler than the Cishek we remember?  Could be a really vulnerable deal. 

But, I guess who knows.  Maybe Chatwood in a different role and with a clean start and a new pitching coach, maybe he'll emerge as a really good rubber-arm reliever?  Maybe by April 20th Morrow will be back and 100%, and will be doing great?  Maybe Kintzler will be back to the strike-throwing ground-ball machine he was in past, and will pitch a lot of no-nonsense quick-inning outings?  Maybe Rosario or Maples will make some step and be good?  Maybe on of the 40-man cuts will end up being the next Chavez?  And maybe by May 20 Alzolay will be up and looking like a weapon? 

Or maybe by May 20 Alzolay will be looking good enough at Iowa to trade for some big-league reliever, or something? 

So many things are unpredictable, last winter at this point I never would have guessed that Rosario would get 4 wins, or that Bote would hit a couple of 9th-inning game-winners or anything.  So maybe some dudes like Alan Mills or Rowan Wick or James Norwood will end up being critical and effective members of the pen at some point. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1359 on: January 07, 2019, 01:21:27 pm »
I'm not saying I love the bullpen, just that they don't have an obvious path to an upgrade without trading people first.

3.  But for guys like Schwarber/Happ/Heyward/Bote, I struggle with the idea that issues are about determination/will/heart rather than just simply hitting talent?  We've gotten much positive buzz on their heart and will and want-to; are their limits as hitters really about want-to and trying-harder, as opposed to physical/talent factors that will not be much improved by being more determined and wanting to get more hits this year?  I'm not sure how I see "determination" as being the solution for them? 

Schwarber doesn't belong in this group.

In MLB he ranked
tied for 63rd by wRC+
tied for 61st in wOBA
44th in OPS
53rd in fWAR

Schwarber may not be a superstar hitter yet, but he still is a very, very good MLB hitter and he'd be difficult to upgrade on in LF.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1360 on: January 07, 2019, 01:37:17 pm »
The Cubs have 13 pitchers already under contract/control

...Chatwood ($12.5 million)
Kintler ($5 million)
Duensing ($3.5 million)...

That is 13 pitchers already under contract, so to bring somebody in somebody has to go. 
The Cubs are currently sitting at $228 million for the CBT, so they are in the second tier already, that is a 32% tax on any overage. 

....Then you need to get the replacement. so for Adam Warren who is expected to get between $5-6 million/year with the CBT it is $6.6-7.92 million + the person you are cutting.  So adding Warren would be $10.8 million on the low end.  Just adding Chavez would have been $9.48 million.....

Yeah, having so many multi-year guaranteed contracts to cats like Kintzler and Duensing is kind of a bummer. 

But, that's water under the bridge, money already committed.  You're paying them whether you keep them or not. 

Blue, are you saying that you're paying $10.8 for the roster spot, since you pay $5 (Warren) + $3.5 (Duensing) + 32% ($1.6 on Warren + $1.1 on Duensing) = $11.2 composite for that roster spot? 

I guess I see the Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler contracts as sunk costs.  The cost of signing some potential upgrade is simply Salary + 32%.  No more, no less.  If they sign a $5 guy to replace Chatwood, they should view that as a $5 + 32% cost, rather than factoring in the sunk $16.5 on Chatwood.  Whether a guy is superior enough to be worth cost + 32% is the only question.

If Chatwood stinks and Rosario is more usable, the cost of cutting Chatwood ($12.5 + 32% = $16.5), you're paying that anyway, and Rosario is simply $0.7 ($.545 + 32%).  If the performance upgrade isn't worth $0.7, don't make the move; if it is, don't let the sunk Chatwood contract stop you.  If that makes sense?   

But yeah, I can totally see where they'd like to see how these guys are looking and feeling in camp, and maybe improvise later.  Maybe all three will be reasonable average.  And maybe once Morrow is back, you'll need to cut somebody and that's when you drop the worst of the three? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1361 on: January 07, 2019, 01:54:49 pm »

Schwarber doesn't belong in this group.

....Schwarber may not be a superstar hitter yet, but he still is a very, very good MLB hitter and he'd be difficult to upgrade on in LF.

You're talking a different concept from Theo.  Theo plans to bring the same starting lineup back, with the expectation that starters other than Bryant will upgrade upon themselves by being motivated and determined. 

I'm questioning whether more ***determination*** can make Schwarber a better hitter? 

My feeling is that he *can* reproduce the production that you like, and that he *might* get better and improve.  (I hope he does.) 

But I *don't* think being more determined, on it's own, is likely to cause improvement for him?  I suspect he's been plenty determined for each of the last two seasons, and certainly motivated for this last one?  *IF* he does improve, I think it will probably involve some kind of *physical* adjustments, to create a healthier back or cover his holes better, or to use the opposite field better, or to add more launch angle, or something *physical* like that. 

Not just a motivational bump?   I think if he's just more motivated and determined than ever, but has the same stance and stroke and approach as the last two years, he'll probably have comparable outcome?

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1362 on: January 07, 2019, 01:58:58 pm »
I do imagine that Schwarber's rate numbers might improve even if he changes nothing, **if** Maddon further reduces his exposure to LHP? 
*He slugged .303 versus LHP last year, in 76 AB.
*Obviously you can't take away all of his LHP AB, and opposing managers are going to bring in LHP to face him, particular in significant situations. 
*But **IF** Maddon could somehow reduce his AB vs LHP, (~18% last year), maybe his OPS would look better? 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1363 on: January 07, 2019, 02:42:32 pm »
Schwarber had a bad back for 2 months and had a wRC+ of 95 and 84 during those months.  His lowest wRC+ outside of that was 113, so I think he can improve with just health.  I guess I'm pushing back on the though that Schwarber *needs* to improve.

The Cubs have a budget of $X.  They need to improve the roster and still leave a cushion for trades at the deadline.  By cutting Duensing it is $X- (his salary + replacement).  If you trade him it is just $X- replacement.  Maybe X is $228, $230, $250.  I have no clue.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 03:05:14 pm by CUBluejays »

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1364 on: January 07, 2019, 03:16:35 pm »
The idea that Schwarber might improve on basis of improved health is a reasonable physical argument.  No argument from me against that possibility.  It's not Theo's stated motivation+dedication reason; but it's certainly a plausible explanation for how he might improve his performance. 

As for the desire to dump our bad salaries, I think we all like that!  :):) If somebody wants to trade for Duensing's salary, maybe somebody will want Kintzler, Chatwood, and Heyward too! 

I think part of the challenge for trading bad contracts is deciding what assets you're willing to give away to induce somebody to absorb them.  I wouldn't trade Hoerner to induce somebody to take Duensing.  Part of Hoyer's problem, I think, is that the farm system is so poor that they don't have stock, much less surplus stock, of minor league assets that they can attach.  If you had a dozen guys ≥ HOerner and Amaya, maybe you'd be fine to attach them to Duensing and Kintzler to get teams to take your bad contracts.  But the Cubs just don't have the farm system at present to move bad contracts.