Author Topic: Cubs in '19  (Read 72224 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1365 on: January 07, 2019, 03:26:56 pm »
craig - I think you are possibly overthinking or over-emphasizing the "determination" thing. I don't think Theo is even capable of being that simplistic in his thinking. Seems to me that he's made clear there were a number of problems with the offense last year. The so called "determination" or urgency or whatever related to the sense that "we're the Cubs, everything will work out in the end" during periods of under-performance.  He's said that repeatedly.

Another reported issue last season was the mixed messages in approach at the plate: such as "launch angle" and hitting the ball hard vs. the Chili Davis approach. I believe it has been suggested this was particularly problematic for some of the younger players (not Bryant or Rizzo for example).  Maybe Contreras, Almora, Happ? Don't know whether Schwarber might have been in that group or not.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1366 on: January 07, 2019, 03:34:29 pm »
I don’t care if you had 10 Hoerner and Amaya’s you wouldn’t trade them for Duensing or Kintzler contracts.

Duensing and Kintzler would be more Alex Lange or Zach Short ish level of prospects or you trade 1 for a backup catcher bad contract.

Amaya and Hoerner would only be available for Heyward dump or 1 of them Chatwood with no bad money coming back.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 04:50:06 pm by CUBluejays »

davep

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1367 on: January 07, 2019, 04:49:53 pm »
I agree with Ron.  I don't think that Epstein believes, or meant to say, that determination alone will cause these players to improve.  I think it is more likely that he believes they are playing below their talent level, and that this can be corrected more easily by a determined player than a complacent one.  Right from the beginning, Epstein the others have stressed in draft choices, free agents and trades that character is an important consideration in evaluating a player.  In the interview, I took it to mean that he was merely reiterating that concept.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1368 on: January 07, 2019, 08:40:32 pm »
Cubs Prospects
@cubprospects
 
The Cubs signed Colin Rea to a minor league contract. I saw @TommyBirch report the Cubs interest. Rea struggled in a return from injury in 2018 between AA and AAA in the Padres system.

Rea’s overall numbers from last year were not good, but here’s to guessing the Cubs saw something in late season scouting that piqued their interest. Because Rea’s last 5 appearances, all in AAA, were very good: 20 IP, 13 H, 1.80 ERA, 10 BB, 23 K.

The above Twitter account is worth a follow.

ben

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1369 on: January 07, 2019, 10:09:49 pm »
Craig, let me state my position re Theo:

1. it would be unwise for him to share every bit of his 2019 plan with the public;

2. there is likely A LOT we don't know (and may never know) about what his 2019 plan really is;

3. over the past FOUR years, he's led the Cubs to the best record in baseball (AND a World Championship) - coupled with his record before he took over the Cubs, he's earned the benefit of the doubt as to whether he has a good plan for 2019; and,

4. I disagree with the idea that the essence of his plan is to exhort his players to have more "determination," particularly given how strategic Theo has proven to be over his years leading consistently successful Boston and Chicago franchises (that, previously, couldn't sniff top-level success).

This isn't prior Cub front offices, when we had good reason to worry whether our leaders had ANY strategic plan, let alone a good one.  We're still being led by the best in the business (as his Cub record and MLB body of work proves).  And that does give me hope for 2019, even though we haven't heard a lot from Theo about what the plan actually is.

And, since it's MLB (and we're in a VERY tough division), who the hell knows how things will turn out for us in 2019?
 

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1370 on: January 07, 2019, 10:58:42 pm »
We sucked for years in order to get this young core and now its time to **** or get off the pot for some of them.

I get that.

Even as currently constructed we're still one of the top 5 teams in the NL.

I get that.

What concerns me is the reluctance to even try to add what few pieces we need.

Bryce Harper isn't necessary but a couple relievers and a leadoff man are and Ive seen no effort to even try to get that done.

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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1371 on: January 08, 2019, 08:49:56 am »
 It would be nice if Theo would give daily or weekly updates on how he is trying to improve the team, but that isn’t going to happen and unless you have hacked Theo’s phone there isn’t going to be any evidence of how the Cubs are trying to improve the team.

The Cubs need for a leadoff hitter is a need created on this board. The bullpen needs some work, but the high leverage guys are already on the team.


brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1372 on: January 08, 2019, 09:53:58 am »
The Cubs need another hitter or two, period. And a leadoff guy makes a lot of sense because it means guys like Rizzo and Daniel Murphy aren't forced to hit there for significant portions of the season instead of down in the lineup where they can do more damage. I also think baseball analysts have been too quick to conclude that lineup construction doesn't really matter just because there's no real impact on total runs scored.

Who are the high leverage guys who are already on the team? Strop and Cishek, sure...but you need more than two high leverage guys. Morrow has been hurt in almost every year of his career, Edwards has repeatedly collapsed in high leverage situations, Montgomery doesn't miss bats the way you'd like from a high leverage guy, and Kintzler and Duensing just aren't very good.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1373 on: January 08, 2019, 11:40:48 am »
craig - I think you are possibly overthinking or over-emphasizing the "determination" thing. I don't think Theo is even capable of being that simplistic in his thinking. Seems to me that he's made clear there were a number of problems with the offense last year...

You may be right.  But he does repeat the determination/urgency thing in every interview or conversation that I've heard or seen reported.  (It's well possible that I've missed many, though; so my perception may be way off!  :))  And he does so with a persuasive sincerity; maybe Occam's Razor applies and he means it, and sees that as a non-exclusive but really important avenue for improvement? 

To some degree, he may have little option?  What are the fundamental ways that a team improves itself?
1.  By adding new personnel,  or 2.  By improvement of existing personnel. 

Improvement of Personnel:  How do you add new personnel? 
1.  Free Agency  2.  Bringing up minor league talent.  3.  Trades

1.  FA:  He's added Descalzo, the one roster addition.  But costs for young building blocks are rapidly exploding as they transition from pre-arb through the arb years, and will continue to do so in future years.  So to some degree he's already done his free agency spending during the years the kids were still cheap.  He's already made the primary investments in Lester, Zobrist, Hayward, and Darvish.  And lesser ones in Chatwood, Morrow, Cishek, Duensing, and now Descalzo.  For a while, maybe he's just got to ride the investments that he's made?
 
2.  Farm, minor league talent:  Theo doesn't have any lineup/hitting improvements available from the minors, this spring or for a while.  It's been ≥5 years since the farm glory years (Cease was 2014 draft), and those guys are up or traded (Eloy, Cease, Torres.)  Who knows, the pitching might get some help at some point this season?  (Maybe Alzolay or Rosario, or perhaps some support work from Norwood or Mekkes or Underwood or somebody like that?)  But if something was "broken" with the offense, call-ups from Iowa and Tennessee aren't fixing it this year. 
 
3.  Trades:  They've talked.  But without surplus of talent that other teams want a lot, and without minor-league talent, they understandably haven't found deals that they thought would improve the roster, or the offense. 

So, if there was something "broken" with the offense, what is Theo supposed to do in terms of strategy?  He can tinker at the edges (Descalzo), or maybe with a small trade, but he doesn't have much to work with.  Without discretionary cash, minor league talent, or talent-surplus at any big-league spot, he lacks assets for doing big strategic things to add significantly helpful major personnel from outside.  It's just the way it is. 

Any improvement needs to come from Descalzo like fringes, or from guys coming back.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1374 on: January 08, 2019, 11:47:45 am »
The Cubs need another hitter or two, period. And a leadoff guy makes a lot of sense because it means guys like Rizzo and Daniel Murphy aren't forced to hit there for significant portions of the season instead of down in the lineup where they can do more damage. I also think baseball analysts have been too quick to conclude that lineup construction doesn't really matter just because there's no real impact on total runs scored.

Who are the high leverage guys who are already on the team? Strop and Cishek, sure...but you need more than two high leverage guys. Morrow has been hurt in almost every year of his career, Edwards has repeatedly collapsed in high leverage situations, Montgomery doesn't miss bats the way you'd like from a high leverage guy, and Kintzler and Duensing just aren't very good.

The Cubs have 6 returning starters with a wRC+ of 100 or better.  Happ was 109, Heyward was a 99, Bote 95 and Almora 89.  The Cubs have plenty of good hitters, if you want to improve the offense you need to add a Machado or Harper or go with what you have. 

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ????

Where all the bullpens that go 4 deep in high leverage guys that don't have questions.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1375 on: January 08, 2019, 12:03:52 pm »
So, if they can't add talent from outside (FA), and can't add talent from the farm, that basically necessitates that improvement, if it is to happen, needs to necessarily come from the inside.  As an administrator, I'm not sure how much Theo can strategically do there.  Or how much he can tell fans in press conferences. 

But basically, I think internal improvement can hypothetically come from 3 sources:
1.  Improved Health   
2.  Coaching and physical/mechanical improvements   
3.  Improved mental stuff, Theo's urgency/motivation/determination. 

As Ron notes, Theo talks much about the 3rd, but they can very realistically hope for significant improvement in terms of health (#1), and they will certainly be looking for not only improvements in determination (#3) but also in physical/mechanical adjustments, with the coaching changes and stuff.   

**Health** seems a huge opportunity.  Bryant, Darvish, and Morrow, *if* you get them back at 100% health *AND* playing at their peaks (being back doesn't guarantee that they'll play great, of course), that would be huge. 

But I also expect when camp opens, we'll get multiple stories about guys who report having played through varying injuries at reduced capacity.  CubBlueJay would suggest Schwarber and Russell for sure; Rizzo early on; I suspect we might well find out that was true for many others as well (Heyward, Zobrist, Almora, Willson....)  A bunch of these guys may end up healthier in 2019, and be much more productive as a result. 

**Mechanical**.  Guys are always trying to tinker and adjust.  A pitcher's stride, grip, arm slot, pitch distribution.  Small corrections can cause significant improvement; which can also build confidence and a healthy spiral of improvement. 

For the "broken" offense, obviously there is all the launch-angle and new hitting-coach stuff and opposite field.  Based on the exit interviews some of the hitters didn't think they got the best help.  Hopefully some new adjustments will help.   

It's not easy, of course, and perhaps even as a hitter is adapting/improving to some degree, opposing pitchers may take increasing advantage of known vulnerabilities?  After 35.4% (per AB) whiff rate as rookie, Happ and coaches did a LOT of analysis and had some really thoughtful adjustments for 2019.  Yes the whiff-rate climbed to 43.2%.  The league has a pretty obvious book on how to attack him.  Is there any question but that he and team analysts have been hunting and looking for months for some adjustments in his stance, stride, load, swing-path that can help him?  If he finds no solution, it certainly won't be for lack of desire/determination/motivation.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1376 on: January 08, 2019, 12:51:34 pm »
The Cubs have 6 returning starters with a wRC+ of 100 or better.  Happ was 109, Heyward was a 99, Bote 95 and Almora 89.  The Cubs have plenty of good hitters, if you want to improve the offense you need to add a Machado or Harper or go with what you have. 

Those six hitters include:

Rizzo (125), who is remarkably consistent and a very good hitter.
Baez (131), who broke out last year, but had a previous high wRC+ of 98--it's probably more likely than not that he regresses some next year.
Bryant (125), who was much worse from mid-May on and had a shoulder injury that two month-long DL stints didn't help. There's no guarantee he'll be that hitter again.
Zobrist (123), who is 38, was a part time player last year, and will likely be more of a part time player this year.
Schwarber (115), who can't hit lefties.
Happ (109), who is a part time player.

My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 


Morrow is a good high leverage pitcher when healthy. But what is the over/under on innings pitched? 25? 30? And while Joe tries to use Edwards as a high leverage pitcher, that doesn't mean that he is one. He has been significantly worse in high leverage situations in his career:

Low leverage: 34.9% K%, 10.7 BB%; 2.67/2.97 FIP/xFIP.
Medium leverage: 35.9% K%, 14.8% BB%; 2.97/3.38 FIP/xFIP.
High leverage: 27.3% K%; 17.4 BB%; 4.53/4.65 FIP/xFIP.

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ??? ?

And how many of those teams are still looking to add high leverage relievers? All of them.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 01:19:46 pm by brjones »

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1377 on: January 08, 2019, 01:09:40 pm »

...But basically, I think internal improvement can hypothetically come from 3 sources:
1.  Improved Health   
2.  Coaching and physical/mechanical improvements   
3.  Improved mental stuff, Theo's urgency/motivation/determination. 

As Ron notes, Theo talks much about the 3rd, but they can very realistically hope for significant improvement in terms of health (#1), and they will certainly be looking for not only improvements in determination (#3) but also in physical/mechanical adjustments, with the coaching changes and stuff.....

Maybe Theo doesn’t talk about it as much, but I think the biggest factor for offensive improvement compared to post-Break 2018 is AGE. 

Almost the entire starting lineup will be playing at an age when guys tend to hit their prime. Everybody is under 30, except Zobrist. Schwarber 26, Contreras 27, Almora 25, Bryant 27, Russell 25, Happ 24, Baez 26. Rizzo and Heyward 29.

You would expect a group like this to be in gear for upcoming season—as they were pre-Break 2018, which we tend to forget mostly because of recency bias and post-season.

Theo addressed—early in off-season—complacency as a post-Break culprit (among other things). Think that’s a bit more subtle a concept than just Gritting Your Teeth and Doing Better for 2019. Think more of a reminder that these guys are in prime years by historical baseball standards and let’s act like it.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1378 on: January 08, 2019, 01:18:25 pm »
Those six hitters include:

Rizzo (125), who is remarkably consistent and a very good hitter.
Baez (131), who broke out last year, but had a previous high wRC+ of 98--it's probably more likely than not that he regresses some next year.
Bryant (125), who was much worse from mid-May on and had a shoulder injury that two month-long DL stints didn't help. There's no guarantee he'll be that hitter again.
Zobrist (123), who is 38, was a part time player last year, and will likely be more of a part time player this year.
Schwarber (115), who can't hit lefties.
Happ (109), who is a part time player.


My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.

They top 4 high leverage guys are Marrow, Strop, Ciskek and Edwards.  They have Maples, Norwood, Mekkes, Alzolay at AAA with nasty stuff. 

Morrow is a good high leverage pitcher when healthy. But what is the over/under on innings pitched? 25? 30? And while Joe tries to use Edwards as a high leverage pitcher, that doesn't mean that he is one. He has been significantly worse in high leverage situations in his career:

Low leverage: 34.9% K%, 10.7 BB%; 2.67/2.97 FIP/xFIP.
Medium leverage: 35.9% K%, 14.8% BB%; 2.97/3.38 FIP/xFIP.
High leverage: 27.3% K%; 17.4 BB%; 4.53/4.65 FIP/xFIP.

The Brewers have Hader and then Jeffress and Knebel that struggled at various points.
The Cardinals have Miller?, Hicks?
The Yankees have Chapman, Betances and Chad Green?.  Bentances looked an awful lot like Edwards going into this year.
The Astros have Osuna?, Wil Harris?
The Red Sox have Matt Barnes
The Nationals have Doolittle
The Braves have ??? ?


And how many of those teams are still looking to add high leverage relievers? All of them.

Happ was included, it was Contreras with a 100 as the sixth.

IF Bryant isn't MVP Bryant then adding 2 hitters doesn't matter.  If Bryant is a league average hitter literally the only way to fix the offense is Harper/Machado.
Baez might regress, but that doesn't mean he'll drop to a 98 either.  He could still be a 115-120 and he'd be 4 WAR player.
Zobrist was 4th on the Cubs in PA with 520. 
Schwarber can't hit lefties and Baez couldn't hit righties until last year.  Sometimes guys improve.

The Cubs didn't suffer from strike outs or low OBP last year.  The slugging disappeared in the 2nd half.  That was the Cubs achilles heal. The Cubs still scored the 9th most runs in baseball last year, despite a horrible last 2 months.



Edwards has a grand total of 28 IP in high leverage situations in his career.  1-2 bad outings will through off those numbers.  Edwards has elite stuff and he needs to take a jump, but he isn't a bad 4th option for high leverage situations.

I will take the over on Marrow throwing 30 IP, unless you think he is going to miss even more time this year.

And who are those high leverage relievers that each team is going to add? 

You have become irrationally negative on the Cubs.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '19
« Reply #1379 on: January 08, 2019, 01:31:39 pm »

...My argument all along has been that the offense is dysfunctional and much less than the sum of their parts. They don't fit together as a unit. I think they can improve significantly by adding a hitter or two who consistently grinds out ABs and gets on base like Fowler and Zobrist did in 2016 even if it doesn't significantly improve their wRC+.....

Dysfunctional and don’t fit together as a unit??

This unit led the NL in runs scored pre-Break 2018 (outscoring Brewers by 50 runs).

Led NL in runs scored in 2017 (except Rockies/Coors).

Led NL in runs scored in 2016 (except Rockies/Coors).

The only significant missing piece for 2019 is the 2016 version of Fowler, but that ought to be (in a normal baseball world) met or outweighed by the age/prime considerations discussed in previous post.

Yes, it would be nice if Cubs could bring in a quality leadoff guy and bump down a spot the “big bats”....but that is a long way from “dysfunctional and don’t fit together as a unit.”

Post-Break 2018 is not irrelevant. Will grant you that. But, there is a bigger track record here and coupled with Age/Prime considerations, this SHOULD be a terrific offense in 2019. Whether it WILL be remains to be seen because, well, It’s Baseball.
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