Bleacher Bums Forum

I agree.  Quintana is not a star, and I was unhappy with the trade because of what they gave up, but I doubt very much if they will get a better pitcher than him for 10 million dollars.

An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

LF - Kyle Schwarber (eligible for arbitration) -  $7,500,000/$7,500,000
CF - Ian Happ (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RF - Jason Heyward (under contract) - $21,000,000/$23,000,000
3B - Kris Bryant (eligible for arbitration) - $20,000,000/$20,000,000
SS - Javier Baez (eligible for arbitration) - $14,000,000/$14,000,000
2B - Nico Hoerner (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
1B - Anthony Rizzo (club option) - $16,500,000/$16,500,000
C - Willson Contreras (eligible for arbitration) - $4,000,000/$4,000,000
OF - Albert Almora (eligible for arbitration) - $1,000,000/$1,000,000
IF - David Bote (under contract) - $950,000/$3,000,000
UT - Tony Kemp (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
C - Victor Caratini (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
SP - Jon Lester (under contract) - $15,000,000/$25,833,333
SP - Yu Darvish (under contract) - $22,000,000/$21,000,000
SP - Kyle Hendricks (under contract) - $12,000,000/$13,875,000
SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000
RP - Brad Wieck or Danny Hultzen (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Kyle Ryan (eligible for arbitration) - $1,400,000/$1,400,000
RP - Tyler Chatwood (under contract) - $13,000,000/$12,666,667
RP - Alec Mills (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Rowan Wick (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333
Players on optional assignment (15 @ $150,000 each) - $2,250,000/$2,250,000
B&B - $15,000,000/$15,000,000

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333

The first salary number listed is the 2020 outlay.  The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248.

Obviously some of the names listed above will be replaced by salaried veterans.

Enjoy.

Contract Budget Payroll Luxury Tax Projected Salaries estimate by JeffH Jeff H Craig. 

(I'm copying this and trying to put some keywords into it so I, and perhaps others, can find it more easily future! 

Thanks much, Jeff. 

An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000P - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) -
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333   .....The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248....

So at $219, with theoretical limit at $248. 

That's $29 to spend, given the lux + $40 hypothetical.

Note:  even that's maybe higher than their hypothetical...  they've usually wanted to save some space for some mid-season salary pickup.  So, would like to save $5 or whatever for that? 

Couple thoughts: 
1.  Kimbrel at $14 looks somewhat regrettable.  But that's kind of the consequence of spend ahead and going ultra-Nowacrat while the window seemed to perhaps be open. 
2.  Much complaint about "sitting out" this past offseason.  But that was the result of outspending their previous winter allocation.  By going all-in for 2018, and signing all three of Morrow, Chatwood, and Darvish, they basically took that from the 2019 budget to do that.   Basically the unexpected Darvish signing two winters back used moneys that could have been available last winter.  Regrettable?  I'm not thinking so.  Unwise?   I'm not thinking so.  They knew Lester and Quintana were getting further worn; so they went all in for 2018.  And then spent $20 on Hamels. 
3.  But if some see this winter as too much "sitting out" and being too passive, just remember to count the aggressive Kimbrel signing as one of this winter's big pickups.  Passive?  No way, if anything overly aggressive. 
4.  So, if there's <$29 to spend....  You can do some things with that.  But I would strong suggest making it $39 or $44 or $47 to spend. 
5.  Lets say we've got ≤$47 to spend on the existing club:  Is the best way to "spread it around"?  And start by putting in $10.5 Quintana, $5 Phelps, and $3 Graveman?  Then maybe spend the next $10-plus on another Q-esque starter?
 Be too stretched to extend Castellanos, or to pursue Cole?

I think doing so might just reassure that you're kind or reassuring the same sort of team:  An under-stuffed rotation that needs to overachieve, and might keep you in the wildcard mix but doesn't have stuff to match up with the top rotations.  A lineup that with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Baez, and Schwarber will hit some HR's and keep you in the wildcard mix, but isn't likely to have the consistency to match up with the top lineups.  Probably a mediocre defense. 

My preference would be to gamble and bundle the cash towards at least one guy who's positively good, or maybe two if possible.  Replace Q with Cole, for example, your rotation might end up being hypothetically superb.  Remove Almora with Castellanos, your offense might be more relentless. 

My preference would be to **** and bundle the cash towards at least one guy who's positively good, or maybe two if possible.  Replace Q with Cole, for example, your rotation might end up being hypothetically superb.  Remove Almora with Castellanos, your offense might be more relentless. 

The 2016 Yankees have been tossed out there as a theoretical comp.  They didn't blow it up and start from zero like we did when Theo started, but they traded everything that was expiring soon and retooled.  That option should be at least on the table - trade Bryant, Schwarber, maybe Contreras, Quintana if he's worth anything (as with Happ).  Re-sign Castellanos, make a couple of LIAB moves and you probably still have a competitive team next season and then go big after that.

If you're going the incremental route - trying to make one more run with this group - I think it involves adding a true CF who can lead off by hook or by crook, finding a platoon partner for Heyward and leaving him exclusively in right, and choosing between Schwarber and Castellanos for left.  It doesn't work to have both.  Find a veteran 2B option as insurance for Hoerner, upgrade the staff as best you can (I'd be tempted to still deal Quintana and let Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay and Graveman duke it out for the last two spots) by signing a reliable RH setup man.  At this point you have to hope with a full ST Kimbrel is at least good in the closer role, and ride it out with Ryan, Hultzen and Wieck from the left side.

Obviously extending Javy is priority 1 and changing managers priority 2 whichever route you take.

Trading Bryant means a rebuild.  There isn’t a way to make this team competitive without him and it not costing $300 million in payroll.

Trading Heyward to free up $10 million will create another hole and not enough money to fill it.

It would be great if Graveman looked good enough to dump Quintana and free up $7 million. Hopefully Chatwood can be moved to free up some money too.

Hopefully Marquee will increase the revenue too creating more flexibility to add to the offense and fix the starting rotation. Not fixing the starting rotation means another year of struggling.

The Cubs are 19-28 in 1 run games this year. Hopefully this is the anti-Orioles situation, when a few years ago the Orioles where ridiculous in 1 run games and made the playoffs. If the Cubs where just .500 this year...

Joe will always be my favorite manager, but this team needs a new voice. Hopefully it isn’t Girardi.

I wonder how attractive the Cubs are or will be to FA's?  In the Lester and Heyward era, this was clearly a team on the rise, and the possibilities were limitless.  Now this may seem to be a kind of average has-been team, with no rising young talent, and with rebuild a possibility during a multi-year contract. 

Maybe Castellanos, for example, would rather go with a playoff team? 

There was a time when the Cubs were the hot thing, but I wonder if players and agents don't see it that way anymore? 

Unfortunately, the Cubs aren't going to spend $$$$.