Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 40648 times)

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2685 on: August 05, 2020, 03:59:27 am »
Heís getting no swings - none - on the curve.  Yes his location is terrible (just look at the double tonight) but thereís no deception.  They know whatís coming.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2686 on: August 05, 2020, 11:22:26 am »
Steele, from what Iíve read, can throw strikes but his issue is command inside the strike zone.  Last year he was coming off TJS and he walk more guys, but in 2018 he was doing 5-8% walk percentages at various levels.

He has high spin and throws 92-95 as a starter so the velocity might tick up some too. The prospects guy for Bleacher Nation tweeted that he added a 2700-3000 rpm slider to his curve as well.

Thanks.  yeah, I get the sense that his velocity, stuff, and spin rate is major league, and when he's at his best he's got a chance to be good.  You are right, that his walk-rate was respectable for his earlier minor-league career.  A caution there is that you can get by on control without command in the low minors.  And that it's probably harder to throw strikes when your fastball velocity increases some; and it's probably harder to throw strikes with your breaking stuff as you add more pitches and permutations, and as you jack up the spin and the break on them. 

Hopefully he'll be a delight, and will have legit stuff with reasonable control and command.  And that last year's wildman was kind of a post-surg thing and will not be more predictive moving forward than his earlier walk rates. 

I saw one of Steele's outings in spring training.  It was just one inning, and obviously guys often aren't even close to locked in early in March before camps closes.  But he looked super wild in that one.  His fastball was all over the place.  IN that single glimpse, his fastball command was horrific.  I think within that game and either the previous or subsequent day, Steele, Maples, and Brothers all pitched... and on that one viewing, Steele looked significantly wilder than either Maples or Brothers. 

Again, it was one glimpse in early March, and he may have been overthrowing to try to impress with velocity.  But I think there's a risk that he might have some wildman challenges. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2687 on: August 05, 2020, 12:09:56 pm »
Thanks.  yeah, I get the sense that his velocity, stuff, and spin rate is major league, and when he's at his best he's got a chance to be good.  You are right, that his walk-rate was respectable for his earlier minor-league career.  A caution there is that you can get by on control without command in the low minors.  And that it's probably harder to throw strikes when your fastball velocity increases some; and it's probably harder to throw strikes with your breaking stuff as you add more pitches and permutations, and as you jack up the spin and the break on them. 

Hopefully he'll be a delight, and will have legit stuff with reasonable control and command.  And that last year's wildman was kind of a post-surg thing and will not be more predictive moving forward than his earlier walk rates. 

I saw one of Steele's outings in spring training.  It was just one inning, and obviously guys often aren't even close to locked in early in March before camps closes.  But he looked super wild in that one.  His fastball was all over the place.  IN that single glimpse, his fastball command was horrific.  I think within that game and either the previous or subsequent day, Steele, Maples, and Brothers all pitched... and on that one viewing, Steele looked significantly wilder than either Maples or Brothers. 

Again, it was one glimpse in early March, and he may have been overthrowing to try to impress with velocity.  But I think there's a risk that he might have some wildman challenges. 

Command is usually the last thing to return from TJS too.  I haven't seen much of him to know what his issue really is, but the prospects guys seem to think he can throw strikes, he just doesn't have command within the strike zone.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2688 on: August 05, 2020, 01:06:49 pm »
Heís getting no swings - none - on the curve.  Yes his location is terrible (just look at the double tonight) but thereís no deception.  They know whatís coming.

Hitters want to hit the fastball that is right in the hitting zoneóand thatís what Kimbrel is giving them. By and large, his curves have either been way out of the zone or pretty good ones in the zone that hitters will take.

Hardly anybody is looking to hit a curve unless (a) itís a hanger and/or (b) it's a 2-strike count and have to protect against everything.

Put another way, If you were a hitter facing Kimbrel today, what would be your approach?

Youíd sit on a heater and ignore anything else (absent a 2-strike count) because he will give you a 4-seamer in the hitting zone. You donít need a tip. You just need to recognize what his pitching pattern is due to lack of fastball command.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2689 on: August 05, 2020, 01:19:52 pm »
So he needs to locate his fastball better if the curve is to elicit swings.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2690 on: August 05, 2020, 01:26:35 pm »
He has to give hitters a reason to swing at a curve.

Right now, there isnít one.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2691 on: August 05, 2020, 01:40:21 pm »
Chicago Cubs  @Cubs  15m
Our 7/30 rainout vs. the Reds has been rescheduled for Saturday, 8/29.  We'll play a doubleheader starting at 3:10 p.m. CDT. Each game will be seven innings.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2692 on: August 05, 2020, 02:14:18 pm »
He has to give hitters a reason to swing at a curve.

Right now, there isnít one.

Hitters have less than 1/2 of a second to determine what a pitch is, if it is going to be a strike and if the should swing.  If Kimbrel is tunneling his pitches hitters will have a lot harder time determining all of that and somebody would chase at a bad curve ball in the dirt at least once.  If the curve is coming at a different angle they can just ignore it and wait for a fastball.
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Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2693 on: August 05, 2020, 02:53:59 pm »
Jordan Bastian  @MLBastian  7m
Hottovy: Quintana on target for 2-inning sim game Thursday. Will probably get one more "start" after that before Cubs decide next step. Team wants to keep monitoring how MLB rotation is rolling, especially Alec Mills.
Sounds like moving Q to bullpen isn't out of the question.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2694 on: August 05, 2020, 03:11:07 pm »
Mark Gonzales  @MDGonzales  15m
Hottovy, a KC area native, will continue to follow protocols during Cubs' visit. "Iím not leaving the hotel." Bummed he can't have lunch with his mom or see his sister, a third-grade teacher. "Can't do it."
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2695 on: August 05, 2020, 03:15:08 pm »
Hitters have less than 1/2 of a second to determine what a pitch is, if it is going to be a strike and if the should swing.  If Kimbrel is tunneling his pitches hitters will have a lot harder time determining all of that and somebody would chase at a bad curve ball in the dirt at least once.  If the curve is coming at a different angle they can just ignore it and wait for a fastball.

That concept, tunneling, is more useful for a pitcher with multiple pitches, like Darvish or the gold standard of Maddux.

Kimbrel is a 2-pitch guy.  Sure, if there is an obvious giveaway between these two pitches, it is easier to sit on a pitch. But, Kimbrel has never been a good example of a guy who relies on deception or the need for a precise common route of the ball out of the hand.

Think this more of a Baseball 101 problem:  commanding the fastball and getting ahead of hitters so they can't ignore the curve.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2696 on: August 05, 2020, 05:09:06 pm »
Hitters have less than 1/2 of a second to determine what a pitch is, if it is going to be a strike and if the should swing.  If Kimbrel is tunneling his pitches hitters will have a lot harder time determining all of that and somebody would chase at a bad curve ball in the dirt at least once.  If the curve is coming at a different angle they can just ignore it and wait for a fastball.

That's a great point.  Still, hitters are pretty quick at using that 1/2 of a second to diagnose stuff. 

One of the things they tend to be good at is discerning whether fastballs are on trajectory for the strike zone or not.   I think part of the issue with Kimbrel's curve is that even if a hitter doesn't realize it's curve out of the hand, his curves don't look like fastballs that are on trajectory to be swingable strikes.  Mondesi, Kimbrel got two strikes on him.  He was in swing mode, and almost swung far enough that it was *almost* strike three; far enough that it was worth an appeal.  But the pitch bounced in front of the plate.  I don't think Mondesi held up because it was tipped and he knew it was a curve coming; I think he held up barely in time because he knew that even if it was a fastball, it was on trajectory to be a ball low and he shouldn't swing at it, fastball or whatever. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2697 on: August 05, 2020, 07:08:27 pm »
People havenít swung at curves that have been thrown for strikes.

Kimbrel today said he got into bad mechanical habits and he was showing too much of the ball. Guys knew it was coming.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2698 on: August 05, 2020, 07:11:36 pm »
People havenít swung at curves that have been thrown for strikes.

Kimbrel today said he got into bad mechanical habits and he was showing too much of the ball. Guys knew it was coming.

That can't be right, Reb already refuted it.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #2699 on: August 05, 2020, 07:37:04 pm »
I hate this Cardinal series coming up.  There are so many guys out that when we win, they'll shrug it off and if they manage to steal one or two we'll never hear the end of it.