Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49147 times)

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #165 on: October 04, 2019, 02:50:40 pm »
...Despite the fly ball revolution maybe OF Defense is overrated

Thanks blueJay, interesting data and interesting, significant point. 

I think Schwarber may play slightly better defense in future.  For example, I thought his throwing wasn't nearly as good or as accurate this year, and that his setups weren't nearly as intentional, in terms of setting up to catch the ball coming in and with weight prepared for a quick and strong throw.  He's obviously never going to have range; but if he could at least execute with skill what his speed allows, I think his numbers might improve a little bit. 

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #166 on: October 04, 2019, 02:52:43 pm »
Cubs Insider with what seems like an off-the-wall possibility until you read the article

https://www.cubsinsider.com/2019/10/04/since-were-talking-former-cubs-for-manager-how-about-sam-fuld/


craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #167 on: October 04, 2019, 03:09:13 pm »
Not sure how to think about Schwarber.  Had a really good 2nd half.  If he could hit like that for the next 5 years, you've got a really valuable run producer, defense regardless.

I assume Theo/Hoyer and other potential trade partners have the same question:  will Schwarber future be the 2nd half .997-OPS 2nd half guy who batted .280?  Or the .777 first half guy with the .227 batting average? Or the .871 composite guy with the .250 batting average? Or last year's .235-.832  guy? 

If Theo anticipates 2nd-half but nobody else does, he won't get offers that he perceived as fair value in trade, and Kyle is back for sure.  If other teams project 2nd-half masher, but Theo doesn't, then somebody should make an offer that Theo views as good value.  If other teams and Theo have matching valuation, then a fair-value offer might be possible, and a trade might be made, since Schwarber seems to have the game-plannable vulnerabilities that typify the lineup.  Obviously that is too simplistic; nobody is going to be super confident that 2nd-half Kyle will project future, but there is calculated hope/risk that he might. 

My feeling is to keep him, and hope that 2nd-half Kyle wasn't all fluke.  Obviously nobody's going to anticipate that he's ever going to BABIP at .320 again, like Ron's article said he did late in the season.  Or hit .280, as he did over the last 70 games.  Making a conservative projection on Schwarber, and trading him for conservatively-fair-value return, is not going to help us catch up to the top teams. 

So I'd favor taking a shot that Schwarber will be able to hit ≥.250 into the future, and might be a >.870-OPS guy going forward.  Maybe even a >.900 OPS guy. 

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #168 on: October 04, 2019, 05:03:11 pm »
I like Schwarber but if you do intend to move him now's the time to do it while his value's high.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #169 on: October 04, 2019, 05:29:20 pm »
Dusty, that's where I'm not sure?  Is his value high, based on 70 games or whatever?  Or will offers be pretty modest, and not nearly what he might be worth *if* he can be anything like this going forward?  I just don't imagine anybody else is going to be more super-convinced yet than any of us are, so that he's not really going to bring back all that much.  Especially with only two years of club control. 
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method

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #170 on: October 04, 2019, 05:30:18 pm »
Real issue is the 2 years control left... his profile has value if he you have 5 years of control left, but when you are in the last 2 years of arb already its rough.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #171 on: October 04, 2019, 06:05:41 pm »
Several tweets say Loretta was the first manager interview this week. Ross, Venabke, and Girardi will be interviewed next week.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #172 on: October 04, 2019, 06:49:00 pm »
Several tweets say Loretta was the first manager interview this week. Ross, Venabke, and Girardi will be interviewed next week.

Can you share who the tweets were from?

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #173 on: October 04, 2019, 06:51:22 pm »
Can you share who the tweets were from?
Too many media members to count.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #174 on: October 04, 2019, 06:53:12 pm »
All the standard beat writers (Sharma, Rogers, Levine, etc.)

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #175 on: October 04, 2019, 06:54:57 pm »
Yes.

Several of them tweeted it.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #176 on: October 04, 2019, 07:05:09 pm »
All the standard beat writers (Sharma, Rogers, Levine, etc.)

Thanks. I've been away from the internet all day.  Just saw Sharma's.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #177 on: October 04, 2019, 07:07:42 pm »
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The Cubs are scheduled to interview Joe Girardi, David Ross and Will Venable next week for their manager opening. Mark Loretta completed his interview yesterday.


I'm still on the fence about Girardi, but part of me wants to see him hired just to see how the never-wrong posters who claimed he never had a chance try to rationalize his hiring.
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #178 on: October 04, 2019, 07:41:47 pm »

I'm still on the fence about Girardi, but part of me wants to see him hired just to see how the never-wrong posters who claimed he never had a chance try to rationalize his hiring.

What poster said Girardi never had a chance?

Haven’t read that here but I’m sure Deeg will pinpoint those posts.
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Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #179 on: October 04, 2019, 07:45:36 pm »
Let the dance begin.