Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49242 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #225 on: October 09, 2019, 09:43:33 am »
Sharma has a new piece on the Cubs' bullpen issues and needs. 

https://theathletic.com/1269907/2019/10/08/craig-kimbrel-couldnt-save-the-cubs-bullpen-and-they-cant-expect-him-to-in-2020-either/

Within the article he addresses a question I had here on how Strope looked during the last few weeks of the season, given that his pitching line looked quite good.  Here is what Sharma said.  I wonder whether the Cubs might offer a team friendly deal with incentives  - based on comments he's made, it seems like he might open to that.

Strop, a free agent but leader and rock in the bullpen, battled injuries and command all year long. But his velocity started to tick up in September — his 38.9 percent strikeout rate was his best mark of the year, his nine innings pitched gave him his second-most productive month, and one scout commented that during a mid-September appearance, his sinker seemed to be moving like it was at its best.

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #226 on: October 09, 2019, 09:55:25 am »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #227 on: October 09, 2019, 09:55:48 am »
Sharma had a deep dive on Contreras's framing as well today.

Strop on a team friendly deal would be something to really consider.
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brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #228 on: October 09, 2019, 01:04:47 pm »
Bleacher Nation looks at NPB free agent CF Shogo Akiyama's fit with the Cubs:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/10/09/so-free-agent-center-fielder-shogo-akiyama-might-be-a-perfect-fit-for-the-cubs/

MLB Trade Rumors speculates the Cubs on one of seven possible destinations for Starling Marte:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/finding-a-match-in-a-starling-marte-trade.html

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #229 on: October 09, 2019, 02:01:07 pm »
Akiyama sounds really interesting.

I'm not sure I'd buy Marte getting traded to the Cubs, but he'd probably be more expensive than what I'd want to pay. 

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #230 on: October 09, 2019, 02:11:27 pm »
MLBTR has their 2020 arb estimates out.

Kris Bryant – $18.5MM

Addison Russell – $5.1MM

Javier Baez – $9.3MM

Kyle Schwarber – $8.0MM

Willson Contreras – $4.5MM

Albert Almora – $1.8MM

Kyle Ryan – $1.1MM

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #231 on: October 09, 2019, 02:48:41 pm »
MLBTR has their 2020 arb estimates out.

Kris Bryant – $18.5MM

Addison Russell – $5.1MM

Javier Baez – $9.3MM

Kyle Schwarber – $8.0MM

Willson Contreras – $4.5MM

Albert Almora – $1.8MM

Kyle Ryan – $1.1MM

Salary estimates Jeff JeffH Craig

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #232 on: October 09, 2019, 02:52:30 pm »
An early look at the 2020 Chicago Cubs.

LF - Kyle Schwarber (eligible for arbitration) -  $7,500,000/$7,500,000
CF - Ian Happ (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RF - Jason Heyward (under contract) - $21,000,000/$23,000,000
3B - Kris Bryant (eligible for arbitration) - $20,000,000/$20,000,000
SS - Javier Baez (eligible for arbitration) - $14,000,000/$14,000,000
2B - Nico Hoerner (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
1B - Anthony Rizzo (club option) - $16,500,000/$16,500,000
C - Willson Contreras (eligible for arbitration) - $4,000,000/$4,000,000
OF - Albert Almora (eligible for arbitration) - $1,000,000/$1,000,000
IF - David Bote (under contract) - $950,000/$3,000,000
UT - Tony Kemp (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
C - Victor Caratini (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
SP - Jon Lester (under contract) - $15,000,000/$25,833,333
SP - Yu Darvish (under contract) - $22,000,000/$21,000,000
SP - Kyle Hendricks (under contract) - $12,000,000/$13,875,000
SP - Jose Quintana (club option) - $10,500,000/$10,500,000
SP - Kendall Graveman (club option) - $3,000,000/$3,000,000
RP - Brad Wieck or Danny Hultzen (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Kyle Ryan (eligible for arbitration) - $1,400,000/$1,400,000
RP - Tyler Chatwood (under contract) - $13,000,000/$12,666,667
RP - Alec Mills (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Duane Underwood (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - Rowan Wick (auto renewal) - $675,000/$675,000
RP - David Phelps (club option) - $5,000,000/$5,000,000
RP - Craig Kimbrel (under contract) - $16,000,000/$14,333,333
Players on optional assignment (15 @ $150,000 each) - $2,250,000/$2,250,000
B&B - $15,000,000/$15,000,000

Total - $205,500,000/$219,258,333

The first salary number listed is the 2020 outlay.  The second salary number is the 2020 luxury tax figure.  The latter is key.

It seems as though the Cubs have set their limit at not exceeding the luxury tax limit by more than $40 million.  That would set their theoretical limit for 2020 at $248.

Obviously some of the names listed above will be replaced by salaried veterans.

Enjoy.

Contract Budget Payroll Luxury Tax Projected Salaries estimate by JeffH Jeff H Craig.

(I'm copying this and trying to put some keywords into it so I, and perhaps others, can find it more easily future!  :) :) :)

Thanks much, Jeff.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #233 on: October 09, 2019, 03:00:14 pm »
MLBTR has their 2020 arb estimates out.
Kris Bryant – $18.5MM
Addison Russell – $5.1MM
Javier Baez – $9.3MM
Kyle Schwarber – $8.0MM
Willson Contreras – $4.5MM
Albert Almora – $1.8MM
Kyle Ryan – $1.1MM


They've got Baez lower than Jeff.  Their numbers would free up a few extra millions. 


Russell at $5, I just don't see how the budget-busting Cubs are going to want to commit $5 to Russell.  Maybe as Ben's guy he's finally due to break out and hit pretty decently for a plus-defense middle infielder.  So maybe he's going to end up being a much better all-around glove-bat defensive 2B than who we end up using there.  But I just can't imagine they'll want to retain him with arb leverage is they share this projection for an arb contract.....  To non-tender and offer him a non-roster split contract with a chance to win the job and incentives, I wouldn't doubt Theo being interested.  But to take on a $5M contract, even if you can release him in March and reduce that to $1M, I'm not thinking it's likely. 

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #234 on: October 09, 2019, 03:40:29 pm »
I doubt Phelps gets brought back a $5 million so that could free up $9.7 million with the lower arb numbers from Jeff's.  That would 195.8/209.558.

If I'm reading Sportstrax right the Cubs luxury tax number $234 million with salary being $218 million.  CBT starts at $208 million with draft pick penalties at $248 million.


Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #235 on: October 09, 2019, 04:35:35 pm »
Akiyama is a good fit for us and a pretty complete ballplayer.  Plus, Jiggy's dismay if we sign him has to be worth at least 2-3M.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #236 on: October 09, 2019, 04:44:47 pm »
Bleacher Nation looks at NPB free agent CF Shogo Akiyama's fit with the Cubs:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/10/09/so-free-agent-center-fielder-shogo-akiyama-might-be-a-perfect-fit-for-the-cubs/

Akiyama sounds really interesting.
I'm not sure I'd buy Marte getting traded to the Cubs, but he'd probably be more expensive than what I'd want to pay. 

Shogo sounds really significant.  As the article suggests, possibly perfect fit.  I'd wondered whether with our specific needs at CF and 2B, and with the reports that there really don't seem to be big-league CF's available in FA, whether there might perhaps be a Japanese option for CF or 2B. 

Even had there been a CF stud in FA, budget doesn't have space for that. 

Shogo doesn't sound like he'd be a huge star-power guy who'd command an overwhelming contract.  So seems like he could well fit within our budget landscape. 

And with Heyward, I'm not sure we need a 160-game starter for CF, either.  So if you sign him but he doesn't hit much, it's not like you'd have to see him Almora for 160 starts. 

So seems like he'd fit the budget; provide the needed defense; provide contact hitting that Theo wants; and maybe the Japanese guys are better situational guys than Americans and might help in that way?  Whether his Japanese leadoff profile would translate well here I don't know, but given the lack of options, perhaps he'd have a better chance to be good there than anybody else we can get from outside, or than anybody internal (other than Rizzo!)

I love the idea. 
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guest61

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #237 on: October 09, 2019, 04:45:34 pm »
The Japanese pitchers are the problem not the position players.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #238 on: October 09, 2019, 05:00:18 pm »
One of the things I was wondering about is what Hoyer will want in terms of lefty-righty. 
For starters,
*LH:  Rizzo, Schwarber, and Heyward 
*RH:  Baez, Bryant, Contreras RH. 

Bench:
*LH:  Descalso,
*RH:  Hoerner, Bote, Almora, Russell
*Switch:  Caratini, Happ,

Gone is switch Zobrist, and long gone is lefty slugger LaStella. 

*IF* they were to trade Schwarber and keep Castellanos, as was considered at one point but has perhaps lost some consideration after Schwarber's strong finish, that would make them kinda thin on the lefty side for starters.  I think that might be yet another reason to NOT shop Schwarber too hard. 

Happ is another trade guy, and if reb was right that he'd be a value piece, that would really leave the bench RH-oriented. 

Shogo is lefty.  I wonder if that would be something they'd like, to keep the overall roster a little more lefty?  Or not really, since if Heyward and Schwarber are already lefty, plus Happ is better lefty than righty, if adding Shogo as a 4th outfield lefty would not really be an ideal platoon landscape?  So maybe they'd prefer a RH defensive CF?   

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #239 on: October 09, 2019, 05:07:06 pm »
If Theo really does want to get away from the HR-game and become more of a contact team, addressing 2B/CF with Hoerner and Shogo would really be two guys well shifted in that direction.  Shifted, at least; whether either guy would produce offensively I don't know.  Hoerner might hit .250 with no power and a million DP-groundouts, and Shogo might end up being a no-power mediocre-average loser too, who knows. 

But yeah, *IF* you kept most of the core in place, but replaced two spots with contact-oriented starters, 2/8 of the lineup could be a pretty significant change in flavor.  Even if Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Schwarber didn't change their stripes very much.  And perhaps after a no-playoff season and two years without winning a playoff game, and with a new manager and new emphasis, possibly some of those core guys will shift a little bit towards more contact?