Bleacher Bums Forum

I think you guys overrate the trade value of a $10.5-million, might-hopefully-be-average guy, with below-average stuff who is already overachieving and getting by primarily on grit and veteran savvy. 

*Maybe* somebody will take that off our hands and we'll still unload that salary burden; but I don't think that's going to be perceived as such a valuable contract that teams are going to be offering meaningful talent value in order to take on that salary. 

Dave, there is no rule that says they have to buy their rotation starter for $10.  They could sign a cheaper guy with more upside; or they could buy a guy with similarly limited upside but pay less for it.  Or, they could have combined that $10 and added other discretionary dollars and gone after somebody more expensive than $10 because the guy is talented enough to be worth >$10.   

It's not like $10.5 is the going rate for every might-be-average-if-things-work-out-well #5/#4 starter; plenty are cheaper. 

Quintana is worth $10.5 million.  He may not be worth Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, but he's worth $10.5 million.

I’m with Craig here. Q is tradeable, but you’re not going to get anything decent back.  10.5 million is right at the level where he’s not a straight salary dump but there’s no meaningful surplus value.

And remember what Chatwood cost, and the results he brought.

Yes, it's possible.

Alzolay 0-2
Chatwood 4-1
Darvish 13-18
Hamels 16-11
Hendricks 15-15
Holland 0-1
Lester 17-14
Mills 2-2
Quintana 17-14

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-pitching.shtml

Scroll down to the section entitled "Team Starting Pitching".  Then look at the columns entitled "Wtm" and "Ltm".

Statistics like this are only partially helpful.  How often did Hendricks pitch against the other team's #1?  If often, his 18 wins is impressive, if hardly ever, not so much.  If X pitches 10X against Cole, Verlander, and Strasberg is 2 and 7 that bad?  You get the idea.

I certainly get the idea.

However, I am not aware of any single stat that is more than partially helpful. 

And as a practical matter, after the first week of the season, and certainly after the first rain out, it is very difficult for any manager to match his best pitcher against other teams best pitcher.  Rotations seldom match up that perfectly, and very few managers would move back his ace more than perhaps a single game, and certainly would not move him up to three days rest to achieve such a match.

But even if teams were to achieve a perfect match, it still seems helpful to know if your # 5 starter is performing better or worse than the rest of the league's # 5 starter.

Jesse Rogers  @ESPNChiCubs  33m33 minutes ago
Cubs news: In the least surprising move of the off-season, a league source indicates the Cubs have picked up Anthony Rizzo's option for 2020 at $16.5 million. Team should announce it later today.