Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49256 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #675 on: November 08, 2019, 09:55:25 pm »
Just curious whether it matters that Hoerner has a total of 375 PA in the minors, part of them recovering from an injury), whereas Happ had 1407 PA in the minors?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #676 on: November 08, 2019, 10:20:44 pm »
Aww that cute coming from you. Maybe next time look at the stats next time.

You're conveniently omitting the fact that better than a third of Happ's minor league ABs were last year, when he was trying to implement a radical swing change, and those numbers drag his overall OPS down.

Through a similar point in their careers (Draft +1) Happ had a .815 OPS. Excluding last year Happ’s minor league OPS was .835.  It’s cute when facts stare you straight in the face and you still go nope I’m right.


Dave23

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #677 on: November 08, 2019, 10:27:19 pm »
I guess I’m kidding myself, then...I don’t find them similar at all.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #678 on: November 08, 2019, 10:31:10 pm »
Almora is a light hitting centerfielder with no infield skills.  Hoerner is projected to be an average hitter with multiple position skills, particularly shortstop.  I don't care what stats say, you trade Almora.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #679 on: November 08, 2019, 10:53:12 pm »
I had hopes for Almora but watching him he seems to have little intuitive sense of how pitchers are working him. Before you can adjust, think you have to think along with pitchers better than he does. Not sure how you get better at that. Almora’s offense has declined significantly two seasons in a row, as pitchers work him without much of an Almora adjustment. In 2019, he was basically a replacement level player.

Hoerner strikes me as a very different player at this point. If Dixon Machado doesn’t get hurt at Iowa, Hoerner isn’t even in majors in 2019. So, thought his performance in majors 2019 was admirable considering that wasn’t the plan and he has so little seasoning.

Not going to trade Hoerner this off-season. Don’t think Theo will.

Almora will be entering his age 26 season, so who knows. Maybe he’ll figure things out but that’s not my expectation and would be willing to trade him to close a good trade.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 10:58:00 pm by Reb »
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davep

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #680 on: November 08, 2019, 11:09:31 pm »
I had hopes for Almora but watching him he seems to have little intuitive sense of how pitchers are working him. Before you can adjust, think you have to think along with pitchers better than he does. Not sure how you get better at that. Almora’s offense has declined significantly two seasons in a row, as pitchers work him without much of an Almora adjustment. In 2019, he was basically a replacement level player.

Hoerner strikes me as a very different player at this point. If Dixon Machado doesn’t get hurt at Iowa, Hoerner isn’t even in majors in 2019. So, thought his performance in majors 2019 was admirable considering that wasn’t the plan and he has so little seasoning.

Not going to trade Hoerner this off-season. Don’t think Theo will.

Almora will be entering his age 26 season, so who knows. Maybe he’ll figure things out but that’s not my expectation and would be willing to trade him to close a good trade.

I would like to see the Cubs try Hoerner in Center field.  I don't think he will be able to play shortstop on a full time basis, but center field may well be his ultimate destination.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #681 on: November 08, 2019, 11:15:36 pm »
I’ve always used fWAR so it isn’t cherry picking. The big difference is Merrifield is going to cost a significant trade cost, where Zobrist only cost money.

Merrifield and Zobrist aren’t similar players and the shouldn’t be expected to have the same aging curves.


Yeah, would be better if Merrifield was a free agent, as Zobrist was, but once the guy is on the field, that becomes besides the point.

Suggest that you argue with Theo and Cubs brass about Merrifield because sure seems like Cubs decision-makers covet him, no?

For the third time noting that Zobrist was better than Merrifield when the former was with Rays but both are 4 WAR players (Zobrist with Cubs and Merrifield last 3 seasons). Very similar players in those periods. Just an irrefutable fact whether you acknowledge or not.

Also, Merrifield at end of his current control in three years could end up anywhere. So, if Cubs acquire him, irrelevant whether his career path turns out like Zobrist. In any case, in three years, Merrifield will be two years younger than when Zobrist signed with Cubs, but beside the point if he’s elsewhere by then.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #682 on: November 08, 2019, 11:34:28 pm »
Zobrist was much better on offense in 2016 and 2018 than Merrifield has ever been.

Steamer is projecting .282/.337/.426 for wRC+ 99 for Merrifield and 1.8 WAR. His statcast expected numbers from last year are in line with that. He’s a high BABIP guy that doesn’t walk and doesn’t have much power. They don’t age well. Wake me up when he there are serious rumors about him.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #683 on: November 09, 2019, 01:53:20 am »
Zobrist was much better on offense in 2016 and 2018 than Merrifield has ever been.

Steamer is projecting .282/.337/.426 for wRC+ 99 for Merrifield and 1.8 WAR. His statcast expected numbers from last year are in line with that. He’s a high BABIP guy that doesn’t walk and doesn’t have much power. They don’t age well. Wake me up when he there are serious rumors about him.

Steamer has been miserable projecting Merrifield.

2019:  Steamer  .738 OPS    Actual OPS  .811

2018:  Steamer  .725 OPS    Actual OPS .805

You should be hesitant to rely on Steamer when it comes to Merrifield.  Pretty sure that Theo is a bit more sophisticated about that.

As to Merrifield and Zobrist, the average of fWAR and bWAR tell you that both were 4 WAR players in the relevant seasons.  You can parse, cherry-pick, whatever, but those are the facts.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #684 on: November 09, 2019, 02:29:57 am »
Why are you comparing Zobrist to Merrifield when Zobrist is damn near ready to retire and Merrifield is only 31?

Merrifield can also play CF which is a position of need and Zobrist cant.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #685 on: November 09, 2019, 07:42:32 am »
That's a good point about CF, DUSTY.  Acquisition of Merrifield would help solve 3 problems- 2B, CF, and leadoff.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #686 on: November 09, 2019, 08:11:30 am »
He isn’t a good OF. He’s much better at 2B and the cost is going to be large in a trade.

Steamer shows what happens when his BAPIP goes down.

Speaking of somebody that might actually be available I wonder what Jon Grey would cost in a trade. If you could get him and replace Quintana with Wheeler the cost of the rotation would be just a little more expensive, but you would add a lot of velocity and strike outs.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #687 on: November 09, 2019, 12:24:23 pm »
He isn’t a good OF. He’s much better at 2B and the cost is going to be large in a trade.


Merrifield is +3 Defensive Runs Saved in 1200 career outfield innings. He’s an average OFer.

He’s a better 2B, yes, but can play several positions on a solid basis, including up-the-middle CF and 2B.

Theo also seems to like him because he’s a club leader-type that Cubs are coveting.

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #688 on: November 09, 2019, 03:14:39 pm »
Theo is a great statesman, so he's said stuff that appeal to everybody.  In his presser, he talked proudly of his willingness to trade and not overvalue prospects.  He's talked about contending every year.  So pretty strong appeal to Nowacrats.  But he's also made some Buildican comments, about looking beyond the next two years.  Of course he's also made comments that appeal to "shake it up, make major trade" listeners.  So pretty hard to guess what he may actually be willing to do, and how to balance Nowacrat and Buildican values.
 I imagine those pull at cross purposes for him, just like they do for some of us, myself included. 

Personally, I'm inclined to go relatively buildican.  If a guy like Merrifield is available for Happ, fine.  Or for Bote + Almora + some not-that-favorite minor leaguer, OK. 

But if Merrifield costs Hoerner + Brailyn, or something on that order, I'd pull out.  We've got so very little young, cost-controlled futures talent that I really don't want to sell much of any of it. 

I'd kinda rather just roll the dice, stick with Hoerner for 2b and hope he works, and just spend the money for maybe Shogo.  Take a shot that way, without sacrificing any futures for your shot.  If Hoerner and Shogo aren't good enough to support a contending team this year, bummer.  But as Jeff notes, we've got to create some talent, and there isn't safety/surety there.  Maybe Shogo and Hoerner will be quite capable, immediately; and combined with existing guys, the offense which scored a decent number of runs as is, will actually improve score more and score more situationally, and end up being good enough to get into the playoffs? 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #689 on: November 09, 2019, 03:20:35 pm »
I think one of the problems, of course, is that Theo is so prioritized on clubhouse leadership.  If you bring in Shogo, he might be the perfect player and a terrific value for price...  but probably as a new guy with English as 2nd language, I'd not imagine he's going to immediately take over as a a self-confident accountability guy.  Same from the pitching side; maybe Ryu is a good guy to pursue without being prohibitively expensive.  But is a craft Japanese guy going to take over the clubhouse leadership and accountability patrol?

I'm kinda guessing that if "edgy" leaderhip and accountability-patrol is what he's looking for, maybe the Japanese options might be really good baseball-player fits, but that's 2nd to clubhouse chemistry issues for Theo?