...Also not keen about trading Contreras UNLESS Theo doesn’t really believe his recent Contreras comments. ... beats me why Cubs would trade a guy like that with three years of control and who seems to love playing for Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/1363480/2019/11/10/why-trading-willson-contreras-could-help-the-cubs-extend-their-contention-window/The Athletic article which suggests Contreras trade might make sense.
I'm not sure the article gives a super compelling reason to trade Contreras. Basically the logic builds on several things:
1. Process of elimination. Theo said he wants to trade somebody and shake things up. But Schwarber and Bryant won't bring much, and you don't want to trade Rizzo or Baez. So, that leaves Contreras.
2. Contreras has much more trade value than the other four. Because he's got 3 years of control instead of only two, and because of supply and demand for catchers.
3. Sharma likes Caratini, and thinks that offensively he'd not be that large a dropoff from Contreras. Plus he's a different batting profile from Contreras and the other three non-Rizzos.
I think your scouting question cuts to the heart of the issue, though. Contreras has been a chronically awful framer; do Theo and Ross think he's really improved, and that he'll be only modestly bad in that his worst aspect? Or is all the MVP-candidate, improved-framer stuff just salesmanship? Who knows?
I think Ross has to be a factor here. He's a huge believer in the little things of catching, and is very detailed and stuff. So perhaps he's not a fan of the Contreras profile? If Ross is daily frustrated with Contreras, maybe they figure now is the time while he's still got 3 years.
But yeah, the whole question just kind of puzzles me. Theo talks up what he's going to do to improve the team, shake things up, etc.. But you've only got 5 guys, and I'm not sure it actually makes sense to trade ANY of them.
I think it's entirely possible that once we get to spring training, the changes are on the margins, not at the core. No major FA signings; no major trades of any of our five guys; just some changes on the edge. Which, personally, I think might be the wisest and OK. (Other than the keep-Q decision, which of course I don't like and think is a waste of discretionary budget.)