Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49168 times)

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #720 on: November 11, 2019, 06:40:02 pm »
What is Contreras' value vis-a-vis acquiring controllable starting pitching?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #721 on: November 11, 2019, 07:29:05 pm »
His surplus value is probably somewhere around $40 million or pretty close to what Realmuto brought back in trade.  You’d be looking a cost controlled MLB player and top pitching prospect.

So the Rays it would be like McKay/Honeywell and Baz/McClellan. The Padres it would be like Lamet and Patino. 

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #722 on: November 11, 2019, 07:41:49 pm »
With McCann retiring, I’ve wondered if the Braves could be an option too. Max Fried seems like the most likely fit there, at least from the Cubs perspective. The Braves might disagree.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #723 on: November 11, 2019, 07:48:13 pm »
With McCann retiring, I’ve wondered if the Braves could be an option too. Max Fried seems like the most likely fit there, at least from the Cubs perspective. The Braves might disagree.

Contreras's brother is there too, FWIW.


Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #725 on: November 11, 2019, 09:37:29 pm »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/willson-contreras-trade-rumors-ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-as-a-possible-landing-spot-for-the-cubs-catcher/amp/

You can make a strong argument for a lot of teams.


Interesting piece. Thanks for posting.

At top of the piece, it lists top catchers in bWAR over past three seasons.

Among others, article notes that Contreras had 9.8 WAR and Grandal had 8.0 WAR.

Here is the difference in the way Fangraphs now incorporates framing in catcher WAR:

Contreras 5.8 fWAR and Grandal 14.0 fWAR.

!!!!!!!

I know that Grandal  is a superb framer but, good grief, Contreras goes from slightly better than Grandal to Grandal having almost 2 1/2 times the value? I know that Grandal played more but still...just think that benefits of framing still in early stages of valuation.

One more thing. Steamer 2020 projections: Contreras 1.3 WAR (406 PAs) and Caratini 1.0 WAR (250 PAs). Basically identical adjusted, with Caratini slightly better. Are you buying?

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #726 on: November 11, 2019, 09:42:58 pm »
If we're trading Contreras, we need to get a #2/3 starter.  Is that not realistic?

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #727 on: November 11, 2019, 09:50:40 pm »
More thoughts on Fangraphs framing.

Available data only goes back so far, so historical catchers don’t get the adjusted benefit (or downgrade).

Russell Martin now has 54.0 fWAR. That puts Martin fWAR ahead of Gabby Hartnett fWAR and Mickey Cochrane fWAR.

Don’t think so.

Average HOF catcher has 54.3 WAR. That makes Martin a typical HOF catcher. Brian McGann too (53.4 fWAR).

Don’t think so.

Jonathan Lucroy has 18.0 bWAR and 37.6 fWAR. Wholly different career valuation.

Baseball historians go crazy about Rick Ferrell being in the HOF. But, Ferrell had 33.7 bWAR and everybody in his day thought he was a superb defensive catcher. Give him another 20 WAR for framing and Ferrell is an average HOF catcher!

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #728 on: November 11, 2019, 10:03:03 pm »
Steamer seems light on his power and BA.

If we're trading Contreras, we need to get a #2/3 starter.  Is that not realistic?

What is your definition of a #2/3 starter?  Are you talking current, potential?  I think it is certainly possible to get a guy with #2 upside if you are willing to take less control (Jon Grey) or a prospect. I don’t think you could get a guy that slots in ahead Darvish/Hendricks immediately.

davep

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #729 on: November 11, 2019, 10:19:35 pm »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/willson-contreras-trade-rumors-ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-as-a-possible-landing-spot-for-the-cubs-catcher/amp/
You can make a strong argument for a lot of teams.

This clip and paste from the above article pretty much gives my point of view.

"The Cubs don't have to trade Contreras. Victor Caratini is a nice enough player, but he's not Contreras, and the Cubbies are trying to win next season. Yeah, Chicago could benefit from the multiple young players they'd acquire in a Contreras trade, but they'd also be weaker behind the plate. I say keep him unless you're blown away with an offer."

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #730 on: November 11, 2019, 11:55:04 pm »
Gray is exactly the sort of pitcher I'd be looking for in a Contreras deal, but I'm skeptical that the Rockies would be a fit.  I don't think they'd see the logic in a Contreras deal from their perspective.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #731 on: November 12, 2019, 01:20:43 am »
Gray would be a good pickup but will be less costly in terms of giving up value to sign a veteran free agent SP than trading away players/prospects.

An interesting guy is Kyle Gibson. Did not get a QO and has averaged 30 starts per season over last three years. Age 32 but actually ticked up in velocity in 2019, with good K rate and lots of grounders. A bit homer prone but, if no TORP addition as seems the case, could be a good pickup to replace Hamels or if Q is trade bait. Jon Heyman says 10 teams are interested in him.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 01:27:38 am by Reb »

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #732 on: November 12, 2019, 09:28:14 am »
Gibson is an intersection guy for the reasons that mentioned. He’s also scary because he was diagnosed with Ulcerative Colitis. How extensive is his, how will his meds effect him, what are the chances he relapses?  Those are all questions the medical team is going o have to answer.

Bennett

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #733 on: November 12, 2019, 03:26:42 pm »
SCOTTSDALE, Arizona — Maybe the Brandon Morrow Era with the Cubs isn’t over, after all.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2019/11/12/20961822/chicago-cubs-bullpen-brandon-morrow

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #734 on: November 12, 2019, 03:55:29 pm »
Well, I suggested that possibility during the season.  If Morrow has any sense of loyalty at all he'd certainly give the Cubs first crack at an incentive-laden minor league deal.