Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49269 times)

guest61

  • Guest
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #735 on: November 12, 2019, 04:21:08 pm »
I was thinking a few days ago that I'd be down to bring him back for cheap and I mean real cheap.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #736 on: November 12, 2019, 05:34:42 pm »
I'd rather just move on. He's probably going to get hurt again, so he's at least as big a crapshoot as anyone else you can bring in on an incentive-laden minor league contract. It's not like he has a long track record of being especially good when healthy anyway.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #737 on: November 12, 2019, 05:40:24 pm »
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Cubs are clear that they will consider trading from their excellent core — Bryant, Contreras, Baez, Schwarber, etc. “We’ve had a stable core for 5 years ... We’re going to have change.” — Cubs GM Jed Hoyer
Informative Informative x 1 View List

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #738 on: November 12, 2019, 08:22:44 pm »
SCOTTSDALE, Arizona — Maybe the Brandon Morrow Era with the Cubs isn’t over, after all.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2019/11/12/20961822/chicago-cubs-bullpen-brandon-morrow

Very cool.  I'd love to have him on a minor-league contract and give him a chance.  What's the harm?  I think those are some of the things that end up working out for teams that have unexpected success.  We need some things to break right; and I think unexpectedly having a really deep and effective bullpen would be front and foremost.  What if Kimbrel showed up and somehow magically was actually pretty good?  And if Morrow showed up and was quite good?  And why not Wick?  And Wieck?  And Alzolay? 
Agree Agree x 1 View List

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #739 on: November 12, 2019, 08:30:05 pm »
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman  Cubs are clear that they will consider trading from their excellent core — Bryant, Contreras, Baez, Schwarber, etc. “We’ve had a stable core for 5 years ... We’re going to have change.” — Cubs GM Jed Hoyer

Heyman's phrase is "will consider trading"....  Hoyer's is "We're going to have change."  The latter sounds more committed, beyond simply "considering". 

At the same time, whether Hoyer's reference to "core" assumes the same definition as Heyman's 5, who knows.  And whether Hoyer's "will have change" actually will involve the big 5, who knows.  Maybe his "change" is Almora, Russell, and Strop, beats me.

But I think there's a chance that they're going to make some change-for-change-sake, perhaps even if that means they'll make talent-negative move?   

craig

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13098
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #740 on: November 12, 2019, 08:45:46 pm »
....“We’ve had a stable core for 5 years ... We’re going to have change.” — Cubs GM Jed Hoyer[/i]

Hayward hasn't been in the "5-year" core, he's only been for four.  Obviously he's never considered in the "change" group, because he's not good enough to be movable.  But one "core change" might be re-utilizing him as a "mix" guy rather than an every-day-starter commitment. What if they did sign Castellanos and Shogo, for example.... and Hayward was used as a 4th outfielder?  Might that be a "change"?   

I've probably written this before, but there is **always** change.  Suppose you went into the season with Shogo in center, Castellanos in the OF mix, 2B shared among Hoerner-Bote-Happ-Descalzo... would that not be quite a bit of change?  Changing >2/8 of the lineup, both 2B and CF, that seems like considerable change to me, no?  If Hayward was also re-appropriated, might not changing three starting positions be lots and lots and lots of change.... even if you did bring the other big 5 back?  Not likely, I realize. 

Hopefully if make some "change" deal involving one of the core 5, it ends up being very talent-fair and talent-advantageous for us. 

Deeg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16926
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #741 on: November 12, 2019, 10:16:25 pm »
I'd rather just move on. He's probably going to get hurt again, so he's at least as big a crapshoot as anyone else you can bring in on an incentive-laden minor league contract. It's not like he has a long track record of being especially good when healthy anyway.

Disagree.  If it's a minor-league deal, what's the risk?  And at the end of his tenure in LA and his brief period of being healthy enough to pitch for us, he was dominant.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

JR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13654
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #742 on: November 12, 2019, 10:56:07 pm »
Yeah I'd bring him back on a minor league or close to league minimum deal.  Besides he owes us for all the money he ran off with the last two years.

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #743 on: November 12, 2019, 11:08:25 pm »
If he makes the team, how likely is it that he breaks down again when the Cubs need him? Probably somewhere around 75%.

As thin as the Cubs payroll flexibility is, I'd rather see them spend their limited money on a lottery ticket who might stay healthy, not a 35 year old lottery ticket who has had one (mostly) healthy season since 2012.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #744 on: November 12, 2019, 11:29:58 pm »
Morrow has thrown about 210 innings over the last 7 seasons...averaging 30 innings a year. And he spent the first three seasons as a starting pitcher. He's almost definitely going to break down again.

He'll sign a split contract and make something like $4 million if he makes the major league team (and he'll make the team if he can stay healthy in Spring Training). The Cubs aren't spending much this offseason. I don't really see the benefit in using a significant part of their limited payroll to bring back a guy who probably won't pitch after mid-June.

davep

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15854
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #745 on: November 13, 2019, 09:32:34 am »
If he makes the team, how likely is it that he breaks down again when the Cubs need him? Probably somewhere around 75%.

As thin as the Cubs payroll flexibility is, I'd rather see them spend their limited money on a lottery ticket who might stay healthy, not a 35 year old lottery ticket who has had one (mostly) healthy season since 2012.

When he was healthy, he was one of the best relievers in baseball.  I would be happy to have a player on a minor league contract with a 25% chance to be outstanding.

CurtOne

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27253
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #746 on: November 13, 2019, 10:08:53 am »
I've been reading a lot of comments about major trades that confuse me a bit.  Trading for young pitchers and prospects doesn't seem to jibe with some of Theo and Hoyer's comments.  They want impact players who can help win before the window closes.  They need a 2B, a CF, pitching help.   So I envisioned something more along the lines of George Springer and Peacock for Contreras and Quintana.  (Yes, I know Springer is about to go FA)  Or Bryant and Quintana to Tampa for Kiermeier and Yarborough.   Now, somebody will start trying to be the smartest guy in the room pointing out why this doesn't work or that doesn't work and miss the point of finding a trading partner who has a need at catcher or 3B and has a good bat or arm to spare.  I don't think we trade from the core for pieces.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17347
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #747 on: November 13, 2019, 10:37:43 am »
The Cubs are theoretically trying to extend the window beyond 2021 without a rebuild with a trade.  It isn't just about remaking the 2020 Cubs.
Agree Agree x 1 View List

brjones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25868
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #748 on: November 13, 2019, 10:42:13 am »
When he was healthy, he was one of the best relievers in baseball.  I would be happy to have a player on a minor league contract with a 25% chance to be outstanding.

Yeah, for a year and a half...followed immediately by a year and a half of injuries. It's not like he has a decade long track record of being great. Most of his career WAR came from a 3 year stretch from 2010-2012 when he was a semi-healthy starting pitcher. Then he contributed next to nothing until 2017 with the Dodgers.

Morrow will make the team if he's brought in on a minor league contract and makes it through Spring Training. He'll presumably make somewhere in the $3-$5 million range when he makes the team. Since they aren't going to spend much this offseason, I'd much rather see them save that money for a player who is younger than 35 and hasn't been injured in every season over the last 7 years.

CUBluejays

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17347
Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #749 on: November 13, 2019, 10:52:29 am »
The Cubs have $30-40 million to spend, possibly more depending on trades.

You can also structure the contract like Phelps. He gets the minimum if he makes the team and increase the salary depending on games plaid in multiple tiers.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 10:55:21 am by CUBluejays »