Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49613 times)

Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #795 on: November 15, 2019, 10:39:52 am »
Isn't this the second time he's supposedly gone back to his old college approach?  I thought I read that about another time he was on a hot streak after a long slump.

I'm pretty sure this isn't the first time I've read that about someone on the Cubs in recent years.

I believe Almora may have said something like that. Didn't turn out quite as well for him.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #796 on: November 15, 2019, 10:53:56 am »
Almora was doing well until he hit the kid with a line drive.  Then his offense/defense seemed to nose dive.

JR

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #797 on: November 15, 2019, 10:57:29 am »
I believe Almora may have said something like that. Didn't turn out quite as well for him.

Yeah Ron, I think that's who I was trying to think of!

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #798 on: November 15, 2019, 11:14:25 am »
Almora was doing well until he hit the kid with a line drive.  Then his offense/defense seemed to nose dive.

Almora had a two week hot streak before the foul ball. He was bad for the first month and a half of the season, good for two weeks, then bad for 4 months.

Playtwo

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #799 on: November 15, 2019, 11:17:54 am »
I'm not sure that it's always possible to pinpoint why a young hitter takes a step forward in his development.  I frankly don't care why Schwarber was so successful in August and September.  Just keep on doing what you were doing, kid.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #800 on: November 15, 2019, 11:36:17 am »
Almora had a two week hot streak before the foul ball. He was bad for the first month and a half of the season, good for two weeks, then bad for 4 months.
Almora through 5/30 had a wRC+ of 88 and was at 101 in the month of May in 100 PA.  lose to his career average, after the line drive he was wRC+ of 41 and his defense declined as well.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #801 on: November 15, 2019, 11:46:51 am »
Through May 12, Almora had a wRC+ of 61. In 15 games between May 14 and and May 28 (the day before the foul ball), he had a wRC+ of 146. Then he was bad for the rest of the season (as you pointed out).

Almora had two good weeks that briefly inflated his small sample season stats in the second half of May. Even at that high point, his offense had been 12% worse than league average. The rest of his season was consistent with (well, slightly worse than) his awful first month and a half. His decent stats at the end of May look far more like a temporary blip than any kind of sustainable development, IMO.

CurtOne

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #802 on: November 15, 2019, 12:38:38 pm »
Thank you, guys, for those stats.  I often wondered what the splits were before and after that Houston incident.

So Almora's decline may have occurred because those cheap ass Astros didn't have an extended screen.  Damb bastards are at the root of all evel.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #803 on: November 15, 2019, 12:48:16 pm »
Wittenmyer wrote that extension talks have started with Baez:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2019/11/15/20966769/chicago-cubs-javy-baez-extension-talks-japanese-cf-shogo-akiyama-2020-insight

What kind of extension is he likely to get? Bogaerts seems like a pretty fair comp. He agreed to $12 million for his last year before free agency last offseason, then signed a 6 year, $120 million extension that starts in 2020 (so basically, the Red Sox had him under contract for 7/$132 million). Would something like 8/$140 million be fair for Baez? A total of $20 million in his last two years of arbitration, then the same 6/$120 extension on top of that? Bogaerts had slightly more leverage at the time (a year younger, a year closer to free agency, longer track record of being an All Star level player), so would it be too much to match that contract?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #804 on: November 15, 2019, 12:52:20 pm »
Players will be hot and cold, but a CF with a wRC+ 88 would have ranked 13 in offense in that majors with enough AB to qualify.  If you take out guys you spent time more time on corner OF spots it would have been 9th.  Only 4 primary CF had a positive Fangraphs defensive value and a wRC+ above 100.

So Almora will his usual defense and below average offense would have been one of the better CF's last year.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #805 on: November 15, 2019, 01:42:18 pm »
Players will be hot and cold, but a CF with a wRC+ 88 would have ranked 13 in offense in that majors with enough AB to qualify.  If you take out guys you spent time more time on corner OF spots it would have been 9th.  Only 4 primary CF had a positive Fangraphs defensive value and a wRC+ above 100. So Almora will his usual defense and below average offense would have been one of the better CF's last year.


Yeah, Almora at 88 wRC+ would have ranked #13....but there were were only 16 qualifiers in CF.

So, #13 put of 17 (if we add Almora) is poor, any way we look at it. Of course, he was actually 64 wRC+ for the season. And the metrics say his defense declined too.

Almora has 2.1 career fWAR in 1282 career PAs. Very poor.

So, even with “his usual defense” it requires a big shot of Pure Faith to go into 2020 with any reasonable hope that Almora could be “one of the better CFs.”

We can move the numbers around any way we want but Almora has been a big disappointment. Still young enough to change things around but, for now, projects as a 4th OFer based on his “usual defense.”

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #806 on: November 15, 2019, 02:39:34 pm »
Akiyama reports have been kinda all over the place.  I've seen a good defensive CF to adequate to corner OF.  I've seen he'd be an OK starter to more of 4th OF.  If he could be Fukudome with the ability to play CF I'd be happy.

Happ in addition to working on his contact at Iowa improved his defense in CF as well. 

Thanks, helpful.  *IF* the Cubs don't like Shogo's CF defense, then he doesn't seem like a good fit.  Or *IF* they do, and sign him, but he actually doesn't play it very well, that could be bad too. 

*IF* Happ has improved his CF defense so massively that he's now OK out there, or even fairly good, that could be helpful.  *IF* both his defense and his hitting have adjusted and improved, he might be a useful flex piece.  Even if the Cubs want to believe both are true, I can't imagine they'd be willing to move ahead with him as the primary intended CF, though.  I want to, but I'm hesitant to believe his Cub hitting was more than a short hot-stretch fluke.  But *IF* I'm wrong and he proves to have adjusted/improved himself enough to be a good hitter, he could be a very useful flex guy.

I'm still uncertain whether his trade value will be substantial to justify a trade in Theo's eyes.  Same as for what Sharma said about Schwarber.  Suppose the Cubs believe the adjustments are real and will result in sustained success for both Happ and Schwarber. If so, will other teams value Schwarber or Happ as much as Theo does, in order to offer what's perceived as fair value? 

Or maybe I'm totally wrong on that?  Maybe teams self-confident in analytics and hit-lab analyses are big believers that practice and adjustments can improve a guy...  Maybe they figure the Cubs obsolete development practices, or lack thereof, have left Happ with all kinds of untapped potential?  And that once they get him into their program, that they'll be able to tap into potential that Maddon and McLeod couldn't access?   

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #807 on: November 15, 2019, 02:47:36 pm »
It wouldn't shock me if the Cubs didn't go with CF as a competition position, rather than committing the resources to get a guy who they'll automatically commit 150+ starts to. 

Maybe they like Shogo's defense, but aren't 100% certain of his offense, or his capacity versus lefties?  They think he can be a main guy, but aren't 100% sure?  Maybe they're pretty confident that Happ is going to be more consistent and that he can be a .250 hitter or better; without being totally sure?  Maybe they think Almora will be able to get back to his 2017/18 profile versus LHP, but are not totally sure?  . 

craig

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #808 on: November 15, 2019, 02:52:34 pm »
On Almora, I'm really doubtful that the foul ball in Houston would have really had a causal effect.  I think more coincidence.  I think most athletes are pretty well able to compartmentalize.  It's not his fault, he's got his own job to do. 

I don't imagine that was on his mind or distracting him very often during batting practice, or film study, much less during actual game AB.   

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #809 on: November 15, 2019, 03:09:43 pm »
Almora was among the best the league leaders in outs above average prior to Houston.  He finished the year with a lower number.  In 2018 he had an expected of 89 and he caught 93.  In 2019 it was 85% and 86%.  His speed is 82nd percentile for MLB players and his outfield jump in 88th percentile (it was 92nd percentile earlier).  He still has speed and greats great jumps.  His career wRC+ is 87.  Everything tanked for him after Houston.  They guy isn't a star but he can be Jackie Bradley Jr, who is a valuable enough to play CF.