Almora was among the best the league leaders in outs above average prior to Houston. He finished the year with a lower number. In 2018 he had an expected of 89 and he caught 93. In 2019 it was 85% and 86%. His speed is 82nd percentile for MLB players and his outfield jump in 88th percentile (it was 92nd percentile earlier). He still has speed and greats great jumps. His career wRC+ is 87. Everything tanked for him after Houston. They guy isn't a star but he can be Jackie Bradley Jr, who is a valuable enough to play CF.
Blue, how do the speed and jump numbers compute/compare, to other CFers? I'm not trying to be negative here, just sincerely curious. CF is the most speed-oriented position in baseball, so we expect it to self-select for >90th percentile speedsters. Is median for a CF around 82nd percentile, or 90th percentile, or 94th percentile, or 74th percentile? I have no idea. I'm guessing 82nd percentile is a little below average for a CF, but not grossly so?
*Also, you mention 82nd percentile for MLB players. Are pitchers MLB players, I assume not? Or do MLB players include pitchers? If the latter, then presumably ≤50th percentile is populated by pitchers.
*Even with position players only, that's still including the Rizzos and Caratinis and Botes and Zobrists and Eloy and Soler guys, many of whom are not very fast.
*So I'm curious where 82nd percentile would fall, relative to center fielders.
Outfield jump is obviously relative to outfielders. So that's a clear frame of reference. Again, I assume CF selects for the better ones, so probably ≥60th-percentile jump guys are predominantly CFers. But 88th percentile overall must certainly be in the upper half, perhaps even among the upper quartile, even amongst CFers.
I guess it just seems unlikely to me that a foul ball incident would have a cause-and-effect impact on performance. If so, do you think he'll still be compromised by that for the duration of his career? Or for the upcoming season? Or might that have a 5-month impact, but not endure beyond the winter?
I'm not doubting the numbers you included. And I'm not a psychiatrist. It just seems unusual that a pro athlete, who is so used to focusing on things he can control, would have a season-long collapse over an incident for which he has no fault, and for whose followup he has no opportunity or responsibility. To have that on your mind during batting practice, or during your AB, or when playing the field, or when chasing a fly ball, that just seems very unusual. It may be that the timing was coincidence, that his decline is unrelated to the incident, and that his decline will not be remediated by an extra offseason of separation from the incident.
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