Author Topic: Cubs in '20  (Read 49207 times)

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #825 on: November 15, 2019, 07:54:39 pm »
Manfred needs to completely wipe this out.  The nuclear option should be on the table.

ROFL.  Manfred?  Dream on.
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method

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #826 on: November 15, 2019, 09:08:25 pm »
What would Landis do?

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #827 on: November 15, 2019, 09:32:43 pm »
Blue, how do the speed and jump numbers compute/compare, to other CFers?  I'm not trying to be negative here, just sincerely curious.  CF is the most speed-oriented position in baseball, so we expect it to self-select for >90th percentile speedsters.  Is median for a CF around 82nd percentile, or 90th percentile, or 94th percentile, or 74th percentile?  I have no idea.  I'm guessing 82nd percentile is a little below average for a CF, but not grossly so? 
*Also, you mention 82nd percentile for MLB players.  Are pitchers MLB players, I assume not?  Or do MLB players include pitchers?  If the latter, then presumably ≤50th percentile is populated by pitchers. 
*Even with position players only, that's still including the Rizzos and Caratinis and Botes and Zobrists and Eloy and Soler guys, many of whom are not very fast. 
*So I'm curious where 82nd percentile would fall, relative to center fielders. 

Outfield jump is obviously relative to outfielders.  So that's a clear frame of reference.  Again, I assume CF selects for the better ones, so probably ≥60th-percentile jump guys are predominantly CFers.  But 88th percentile overall must certainly be in the upper half, perhaps even among the upper quartile, even amongst CFers. 

I guess it just seems unlikely to me that a foul ball incident would have a cause-and-effect impact on performance.  If so, do you think he'll still be compromised by that for the duration of his career?  Or for the upcoming season?  Or might that have a 5-month impact, but not endure beyond the winter? 

I'm not doubting the numbers you included.  And I'm not a psychiatrist.  It just seems unusual that a pro athlete, who is so used to focusing on things he can control, would have a season-long collapse over an incident for which he has no fault, and for whose followup he has no opportunity or responsibility.  To have that on your mind during batting practice, or during your AB, or when playing the field, or when chasing a fly ball, that just seems very unusual.  It may be that the timing was coincidence, that his decline is unrelated to the incident, and that his decline will not be remediated by an extra offseason of separation from the incident.   

For OF jump I couldn’t sort just CF, but Almora is 12th in baseball.

For sprint speed if you set it to 150 attempts to get rid of some of the scrubs he is 16/24 in CF, faster than Bradley and Inciarte.

In a 90 foot race around the bases he is 0.23 slower than Buxton and that translates into about 6 feet behind Buxton using their race function.

Almora has something go really wrong after he hit the kid, but he also needs to make adjustments. I prefer he start in Iowa and work on a swing adjustment to add loft and quit swinging at bad pitches that promote more of the weak contact. He can be useful just as a defensive replacement, but if they can figure out how to get his offense to league average at least he would be a good starter in CF. Especially with suckage that is currently playing there in all of baseball.

guest61

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #828 on: November 15, 2019, 10:41:15 pm »
I dont really even know the Japanese CFers name yet but Ive felt like we sorely needed a leadoff man since Fowler left and the dude seems like an ideal fit at a cheap price.

Im all for it.

My problem is with Japanese pitchers not position players.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #829 on: November 15, 2019, 11:00:28 pm »

..Almora has something go really wrong after he hit the kid, but he also needs to make adjustments. I prefer he start in Iowa and work on a swing adjustment to add loft and quit swinging at bad pitches that promote more of the weak contact. He can be useful just as a defensive replacement, but if they can figure out how to get his offense to league average at least he would be a good starter in CF. Especially with suckage that is currently playing there in all of baseball.

Keep in mind that Almora has regressed badly for two seasons.  In his first two partial seasons (440 PAs), his OPS was about .770. Since then, he’s at about .680 OPS. I doubt that it's mostly about the Houston incident, if at all.

Offensively, 2019 was a typical year for major league CFers:  .745 OPS.

Starting in 2018 and going backwards, CF OPS has been 725-762-745-738-718-729-748-734-731.

2019 fits right in at CF.

If Almora could OPS at .750, he would be okay. But, think Cubs would be foolish to plan on that for 2020.




Ron

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #830 on: November 15, 2019, 11:41:20 pm »
The Cubs are reportedly in discussions for an extension with Javier Baez. Here is a compilation of his extraordinary tags.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2334909530152813



Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #831 on: November 16, 2019, 02:00:46 am »
The Cubs are reportedly in discussions for an extension with Javier Baez. Here is a compilation of his extraordinary tags.

Forgive me but going to toot my horn for a second on Baez tags. I was struck by this back in 2014 when Baez first came up.


Reb
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Re: 2014 Today's Game (2/26/14 - 9/28/14)
« Reply #3931 on: September 16, 2014, 08:05:45 pm »
Would Castro have made the tag on Hamilton SB attempt in 4th inning that Baez just made? Uh, no.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #832 on: November 16, 2019, 08:28:32 am »
ダルビッシュ有(Yu Darvish)

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@faridyu
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Yesterday, the Japanese media accidentally used my picture in a news report about a hit and run incident where I was apparently the victim of the hit and run.
Ah..now that I think about it, I certainly was a victim of a hit and run yesterday.
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CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #833 on: November 16, 2019, 08:31:59 am »
Offensively, 2019 was a typical year for major league CFers:  .745 OPS.

If Almora could OPS at .750, he would be okay. But, think Cubs would be foolish to plan on that for 2020.


1) Did you miss where I said he should start in AAA?
2) There are literally 6 full time CF that met your criteria for .750 OPS. Kepler, Heyward and Fowler are part time guys at best. So if you criteria for a CF being OK is being top 6 at their position you might want to reevaluate your idea of ok.

Deeg

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #834 on: November 16, 2019, 09:14:55 am »
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Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #835 on: November 16, 2019, 10:25:09 am »
1) Did you miss where I said he should start in AAA?
2) There are literally 6 full time CF that met your criteria for .750 OPS. Kepler, Heyward and Fowler are part time guys at best. So if you criteria for a CF being OK is being top 6 at their position you might want to reevaluate your idea of ok.

Evidently you missed the part about .745 being the average OPS in CF throughout the majors last season. Not surprised you missed that because you described that as “suckage” when, in fact, it’s typical for at least the last 10 years.

There were 18 CFers in MLB with .745 OPS or better, with 400 PAs or more. It’s not important if Almora qualifies for the Batting Title or not. The Batting Title is not the benchmark here. It’s can Almora hit in the majors like an average CFer so he’s worthy of getting a substantial # of PAs.

You’re arguing that CF MLB AVERAGE is a high bar? Really?



CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #836 on: November 16, 2019, 12:18:53 pm »
18 people that played some time in CF.  The people who played there for a majority of their time is less. 

15 guys had 400 PA and a wRC+ of 100.  Only 7 had a wRC+ and a postive defensive value playing at least some time in CF.

9 teams had a wRC+ of 100 in CF.  On 5 paired that with positive defensive value.

11 teams had a OPS >.745 from CF.  6 teams paired that with positive defensive value.

So yes league average offense with even some defensive value is hard to do.  Only 16 teams where able to get >2 WAR from CF. 

If league average offense and bad defense is acceptable than Heyward should be the CF.  The Nationals won the WS with a wRC+ 89 and plus defensive value in CF this year.

Reb

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #837 on: November 16, 2019, 02:37:33 pm »
Every single player who played CF in the majors—in the aggregate—averaged .745 OPS in 2019.

You can parse, cherry-pick, cut, paste, twist, and contort any which way...but it does not change what is MLB average in CF.

.745.

So, that is what seems a reasonable hope for Almora: give us average offense for his position in a significant #of PAs and play at least average or better CF defense.

MLB average for your position is not too high a pedestal. Year in and year out, MLB average in CF is near that number. 2019 was not an outlier in the majors but a typical season for CF. Once you are aware of that, you should be able to see that Almora has quite a ways to go to reach average for his position.

CUBluejays

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #838 on: November 16, 2019, 07:46:26 pm »
If you set it to 0 PA a grand total of 38 players had CF innings and an OPS above .745.  The mean OPS for CF is much, much less. So league average offense or even league average CF offense is rare. Adding average or better defense makes it even rarer. Mean is probably a better stat for the argument you are trying to make.

brjones

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Re: Cubs in '20
« Reply #839 on: November 16, 2019, 07:49:37 pm »
Let's not forget that Almora was just as bad in the second half of 2018 as he was after the foul ball in 2019. He's been a 58 wRC+ hitter since the All Star Break in 2018. He's got a long way to go to get to being a .745 OPS hitter.